The Fantasy Footballers’ Top Ten QB Rankings For 2021
The anticipation is building for the 2021 football season. We are seeing third-string WRs drop passes in pre-season games, and we are hanging on every report coming out of training camps. We are constantly refreshing Twitter to have our finger on the pulse of every piece of breaking news. On Friday’s show Andy, Mike, and Jason jumped right in with their top ten QBs for the upcoming season. Let’s check out their 2021 QB rankings for the full picture.
Andy 2 | Jason 1 | Mike 1
ADP: 4.06 / QB3
2021 stat line: 16 games — 375/558 for 3971/26/12 — 133/819/11 rushing (QB2 fantasy finish)
Not the usual QB1 – most people are putting Mahomes up first – but looking back on last year’s performance, through the first eleven weeks (prior to injury), Murray was clearly the QB1. The shoulder injury caused a massive struggle for him in the back end of the season, where he dropped to the QB17. Murray has huge rushing upside, the potential for double-digit rushing TDs, and he can also throw for over 4000 yards and a huge number of passing TDs. The Cardinals have also added a myriad of weapons for Murray to play with this season, in addition to strengthening the offensive line. The floor with Murray is safe. Barring injury, he is a better value if he drops into the fourth or fifth round than Patrick Mahomes would be at the end of the second round if you are someone who likes to draft a QB early.
Andy 1 | Jason 2 | Mike 2
ADP: 2.11 / QB1
2021 stat line: 15 games — 390/588 for 4740/38/6 — 62/308/2 rushing (QB4 fantasy finish)
A QB1 in 75% of his starts over three years shows just how safe you are at the position of QB when you draft Patrick Mahomes. Giving up a second-round pick to draft Mahomes – a very expensive investment – means he MUST pay off. You are passing on great RBs and WRs at that point in your draft, and anything less than a top-three finish from Mahomes will mean your investment did not deliver. But look, Mahomes is really, really good at football. He has great receivers, a great line, and a great coach. Him finishing in the top three is a pretty safe bet.
3. Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills
Andy 3 | Jason 3 | Mike 4
ADP: 3.11 / QB2
2021 stat line: 16 games — 396/572 for 4544/37/10 — 102/421/8 rushing + a receiving TD (QB1 fantasy finish)
Josh Allen showed extraordinary improvement last year, which lands him at number three on the QB list. Sure, he threw for more yards and TDs, but the biggest improvement in Allen’s game was his decrease in interceptions. His rushing floor adds to his value as a top QB. The Bills offense does not have a great need to run the football, so confidence in Allen throwing for a huge number of yards is quite prevalent; however, we might see a regression in the number of TDs thrown. Last year 6.5% of Allen’s throws were TDs, up from the league average of 4.5%. If this number regresses, Allen might not be a value at that point in your draft.
Andy 6 | Jason 4 | Mike 3
ADP: 4.08 / QB4
2021 stat line: 15 games — 242/376 for 2757/26/9 — 159/1005/7 rushing (QB10 fantasy finish)
If you owned Lamar Jackson last year it was a bumpy ride. If you managed to make the fantasy playoffs with him on your roster, you were rewarded late in the season. From week 10 on, Jackson was QB2 in fantasy points per game. He is currently being drafted in the fourth round, similar to where Kyler is going. Jackson had twelve games under 200 passing yards last season, which can be a scary prospect for your QB1. And that small passing pie in Baltimore will always be an issue.
Andy 4 | Jason 5 | Mike 8
ADP: 8.03 / QB9
2021 stat line: 16 games — 401/610 for 4633/40/12 — 30/6/3 rushing (QB8 fantasy finish)
The biggest difference in the Footballers rankings and the general average rankings is Tom Brady, with Andy being especially keen on the Plant Man. Quickly acclimatizing to the Bruce Arians system last year, Brady was the QB6 from week seven on. The second half of the year was especially outstanding – he had figured out the offense and gotten all of his weapons healthy – and it probably is the most indicative of what we will see from Brady moving on. Barring injury, Brady is quite a value this year.
Andy 5 | Jason 7 | Mike 7
ADP: 7.04 / QB8
2021 stat line: 16 games — 372/526 for 4299/48/5 — 38/149/3 rushing (QB3 fantasy finish)
Aaron Rodgers had an incredible MVP season from last year, where he threw for 48 TDs. Although clearly still one of the best QBs out there, some TD regression is almost inevitable for Rodgers this season. Davante Adams – arguably one of the best WRs in the league – returns to the team, in addition to Rodgers’ old buddy and personal request, Randall Cobb. The weapons are a plenty up in Green Bay, and Aaron Rodgers will have another great season. The only issue with Rodgers is the fact that his draft price might start to creep up the closer we get to the season.
Andy 7 | Jason 9 | Mike 5
ADP: 6.02 / QB7
2021 stat line: 16 games — 384/558 for 4212 for 40/13 — 83/513/2 (QB6 fantasy finish)
Russell Wilson is simply an efficient QB. He still has a great rushing floor, running for over 500 yards last season and passing for over 4000 yards. If he puts it all together, Wilson’s ceiling could get you to QB1; however, the man can be streaky. Wilson was tied for 1st in consistency ranking for the first half of the season but 18th in consistency in the second half of the season. If you choose to draft a quarterback this early, he will be your locked-in QB, but you have to acknowledge the potential for inconsistency. Russ CAN cook, but will the new OC Shane Waldron let him?
Andy 10 | Jason 8 | Mike 6
ADP: 5.06 / QB5
2021 stat line: 5 games — 151/222 for 1856/9/4 — 18/93/3 rushing
We know Dak Prescott has the talent, but in light of his recent injury whispers, he might start dropping in drafts. If you want to take a chance on him when he drops – and he delivers – you will get him at a huge value. In addition to Prescott’s ankle injury recovery, his new shoulder injury does give cause to pause. How mobile and efficient can Dak actually be in 2021? Will he be able to capitalize on the Cowboy’s offensive weapons? Time will tell.
Andy 8 | Jason 6 | Mike 12
ADP: 5.11 / QB6
2021 stat line: 2020 stat line: 15 games — 396/595 for 4336/31/10 — 55/234/5 rushing (QB9 fantasy finish)
Andy, Mike, and Jason have a big disparity on Justin Herbert. Herbert’s first season was incredible, and with a much-improved offensive line and a myriad of weapons, he could be just as good as last season, if not better. Conversely, Mike is concerned about regression because Herbert was just THAT good in 2020. He set the record for completion percentage of a rookie QB with 66.5%. Going in the fifth round with a concern for potential regression, Herbert seems less of a value than we would like to draft at the QB position.
Andy 9 | Jason 11 | Mike 11
ADP: 9.08 / QB12
2021 stat line: 2020 stat line: 16 games — 315/481 for 3819/33/7 — 43/266/7 rushing (QB7 fantasy finish)
Ryan Tannehill is a great value in fantasy drafts this year. Last year he finished as the QB7, and adding Julio Jones to his list of offensive weapons this year gives him even more upside. Tannehill is a great QB to keep on your back burner as you watch the higher echelon QBs disappear off your draft board. He even managed to run for five rushing TDs in the last three games of the season. The only concern for Tannehill and the Titans is whether or not we see a decrease in efficiency – last year, he had a career-high of 33 passing TDs.