Snap Count Observations: Week 7
Both the NFL season and fantasy football continue to be as unpredictable as I can remember. Lineup decision and free agent acquisitions need to be based on data. Unfortunately, some of the data has been untrustworthy.
Alshon Jeffery 94% / Cameron Meredith 83%
We know by now these are the two primary WR targets in Chicago. With Cutler returning in Week 8, I think Jeffery is a valuable trade target. He has zero TDs thus far and is playing for a contract. Cutler locks on to his favorite receivers and throws it no matter what. I expect 15+ targets for Jeffery every game with Cutler from here on out.
Ty Montgomery 69% / Don Jackson 7% / Knile Davis 6%
Montgomery filled in nicely in his hybrid RB role. Jackson got banged up and Davis barely played. I continue to like Montgomery as he should receive touches consistently. Although Green Bay won the game, a QB cannot throw 56 passes every week and expect to win. Defenses adjust too well. The big move to make here is stashing James Starks, who should be back in 3 or 4 games.
Ricardo Louis 78% / Andrew Hawkins 58% / Rashard Higgins 48% / Terrelle Pryor 31%
With Pryor on a limited snap count, it was surprising to see Louis with the most snaps. His productivity has not been impressive this season, but he has consistently been the #3 WR since Corey Coleman went out with injury. Louis may be more of a dynasty target, especially with Coleman expected to return shortly.
Larry Fitzgerald 98% / JJ Nelson 84% / Michael Floyd 81%
Jaron Brown unfortunately tore his ACL early in the game and John Brown is struggling with pain from sickle cell trait. I hope both players recover well. In the meantime, JJ Nelson is a must add. Even with John Brown expected to return in Week 8. Floyd is not playing well while working through hamstring issues, opening the door for Nelson to become a primary target in Arizona.
Chris Thompson 59% / Matt Jones 30% / Robert Kelley 14%
I hope you were able to trade Matt Jones following his nice Week 6 game. He has fumbled 8 times, losing 6 of them, in his short career. Head coach, Jay Gruden, commented on the issue and it sounds ominous for Jones’ future as a lead back. Thompson had already been playing an increased role. Expect that trend to continue and increase.
Marvin Jones 92% / Golden Tate 83%
Having patience on Tate may be paying off. He had 7 more targets (12:5) than Jones this week and is finally making the most of his targets. The Detroit passing game is dangerous.
Latavius Murray 58% / DeAndre Washington 18% / Jalen Richard 6%
When healthy, Murray is still the primary RB in Oakland.
Allen Robinson 96% / Allen Hurns 84% / Marqise Lee 70%
The snap counts aren’t surprising, but the usage is. Lee had the most targets of the Jaguars trio this week and has clearly garnered the confidence of Blake Bortles. His catch rate of 76.3% dwarfs that of the Allens (Hurns-53.3% Robinson-47.3%). None of these WRs can be trusted with Bortles playing as poorly as he is.
Brandin Cooks 89% / Michael Thomas 82% / Willie Snead 80%
Drew Brees is one of only a handful of QBs consistently playing well this season. All 3 of these WRs can be trusted and started.
Spencer Ware 69% / Charcandrick West 27% / Jamaal Charles 4%
It is sad to see one of the greatest RBs in recent memory fade so quickly. No telling what the plan is with Charles going forward, but it is nice to see Ware continuing to excel with the lead back role.
Terrance West 36% / Lorenzo Taliaferro 19% / Kenneth Dixon 7%
The Ravens have attempted the most passes in the NFL this season. Unless that changes soon, Ravens RBs won’t have enough consistent value to be trusted. West struggled with an ankle injury in Week 7, but the team was in pass mode and did not turn to rookie Dixon as some would have hoped. Head coach John Harbaugh has indicated that Dixon will play more in coming weeks.
Matt Forte 84% / Bilal Powell 13%
The participation of these players continues to vary week by week. As long as Forte is healthy, Powell is no more than a handcuff, albeit a valuable handcuff.
Adam Thielen 88% / Stefon Diggs 80% / Cordarrelle Patterson 67%
QB play is not good in Minnesota, but Patterson is intriguing. He caught all 7 of his targets in Week 7. We have all been waiting for his talent to translate into production, and that time may finally be here. He is worth a speculative add, especially in leagues with return yardage.
Devontae Booker 55% / C.J. Anderson 45%
The RBBC I expected is here and it feels like the shift towards Booker may continue. For the first time this season, he had more opportunities (19:16 Touches +Targets) than Anderson. Both players performed well and should be worth starting moving forward.