Snap Count Observations: Week 5

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With 5 weeks of data to dissect, it is clear that RBBCs are here to stay, and young players are being brought along slowly. Getting ahead of the curve in fantasy football is a great way to transform your team from good, to great.

Jeremy Kerley 100% / Torrey Smith 94% / Quinton Patton 91%

Kerley is the obvious free agent acquisition this week. Digging deeper, I feel that all 3 players represent good value as speculative additions. Colin Kaepernick has supplanted Blaine Gabbert at QB. We have no idea what to expect from Kaepernick, but I can’t fathom it being worse that what we have seen from Gabbert. With WRs on the field as much as these players are, I am excited for what we could see in coming weeks. Patton and Smith, who were targeted 2 and 1 time(s) respectively, will be free on waiver wires this week. Add them, stash them and see how this situation plays out.

Cameron Meredith 95% / Alshon Jeffery 92% / Eddie Royal 56%

The Chicago Bears elevated Meredith after the Kevin White injury was announced. It is slightly surprising that he was on the field more than Jeffery and Royal, but we knew he would play. The big takeaway is what the former Illinois State QB did with his opportunity. Despite a crucial 4th quarter fumble, he had an elite fantasy day:

2016 (Week 5) Targets Receptions Yards TD
Meredith 12 9 130 1
Jeffery 6 5 77 0
Royal 9 7 43 0

Often times, a backup QB like Brian Hoyer, and backup WRs will create chemistry in practice, which can carry over into game action. It is hard to say how Meredith will perform with Cutler if he is named the starter.

Brandon LaFell 93% / A.J. Green 84% / Tyler Boyd 71%

The Week 5 game script got away from the Bengals quickly. Dallas got out big on them early in the game. A 3 WR set is not surprising, but the fact that Boyd remains the #3WR in snaps and usage (5 targets to 11 for LaFell and 8 for Green), is telling. Some people REALLY like LaFell, so they are happy. But for those of us who hoped Boyd would become the #2 this season, it is not looking good. Boyd should only be kept in dynasty or 14 team leagues.

Emmanuel Sanders 97% / Demaryius Thomas 80%

Sanders is the clear cut #1 WR in Denver. 5 weeks of data is enough to make that statement definitively. However, notice that the fantasy production is similar:

2016 Season Snaps / % Targets Receptions Yards TD
Sanders 297 / 88% 51 32 373 3
Thomas 264 / 78% 34 26 381 3

This may be a good chance to trade Sanders away while his perceived value is high and target Thomas while his is low.

C.J. Anderson 51% / Devontae Booker 41%

The RBBC Anderson owners feared, is here. Unfortunately, neither player carries much value right now, but both must be owned. Hold and hope.

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Jordan Matthews 93% / Nelson Agholor 79% / Dorial Green-Beckham 52%

DGB is a distant 3rd in Philadelphia. He does make an interesting speculative add, though. Agholor is not impressing and his 59% reception conversion rate leaves a lot to be desired. In a limited sample size, DGB is catching the ball at a much more efficient clip (71%).

Odell Beckham Jr. 100% / Sterling Shepard 100% / Victor Cruz 100%

A lot has been made lately about how often the Giants line up in 3 WR sets. I suppose they really wanted to emphasize the point this week. I’m sure Green Bay’s top-rated run defense had a little something to do with it.

Jay Ajayi 68% / Damien Williams 18% / Kenyan Drake 16%

The 4-way split is over, but I’m still not impressed. Arian Foster can’t come back soon enough.

DeMarco Murray 81% / Derrick Henry 30%

Two weeks makes it a trend. Henry should not be dropped but is no more than a valuable handcuff at this point.

Adam Thielen 92% / Cordarrelle Paterson 61% / Jarius Wright 59% / Charles Johnson 16%

Very interesting that Thielen took over as the #1 WR with Stefon Diggs out of the game. Patterson is gaining more confidence every week and could become a valuable weapon down the stretch. Johnson appears to be on the outside looking in once again.

Matt Forte 64% / Bilal Powell 47%

Much like the C.J. Anderson/Devontae Booker situation, not much value can be had from either player in this RBBC. Both players could have high ceilings if given a full workload.

Mike Wallace 85% / Kamar Aiken 56% / Breshad Perriman 49%

With Steve Smith laboring through a leg injury, Perriman’s workload should continue to increase. Add him now before he has a breakout week and becomes too expensive.

Matt Jones 56% / Chris Thompson 32% / Robert Kelley 12%

Kelley may start playing more in the near future. Head coach Jay Gruden has indicated as such recently and Matt Jones has not shown enough to hold him off.

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