Snap Count Observations: Week 4

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As is the case every season, in-season management is more important to fantasy success than the draft. We have to believe trends that may have seemed to be irrelevant or unlikely. Furthermore, we must be open to shifting trends as we transition into the 2nd quarter of the season.

Tyler Kroft 63% / C.J. Uzomah 60%

Neither of these players has made a case for extended playing time. Pay close attention to Tyler Eifert’s health status and make a move to acquire him if possible.

Jay Ajayi 31% / Damien Williams 29% / Isaiah Pead 20% / Kenyan Drake 16%

I said last week this was a backfield I wanted no part of. Nothing has changed. I understand making a speculative add on Ajayi or Drake if you have a free roster spot, but I would not recommend doing so. Logic would assume the Dolphins brass knows how poor the Week 4 gameplan was. They would be wise to elevate one runner and ride him. Until I see it happen; however, I am out. Foster seems like a savior waiting in the wings, but his health makes him far too risky.

Mohamed Sanu 78% / Julio Jones 70%

BREAKING NEWS! Julio Jones had 300 receiving yards in Week 4! How can teams not roll coverage and double cover Jones after that performance? Trading Jones for anything you want is probably possible right now, but don’t you dare. The move here is to target Sanu, who was basically ignored (3 targets) during the Jones show. He should benefit from more single coverage and the #2 CB if the defensive scheme allows it.

Marvin Jones 97% / Anquan Boldin 86% / Golden Tate 57%

I get the feeling Tate, who was benched in the 2nd half of the Week 4 game, is either playing through injury or has firmly entrenched himself in the doghouse. I mentioned last week that Jones is the clear #1, but Tate becoming the distant #3 is not a narrative I saw coming. Name value is about all Tate has right now.

Larry Fitzgerald 94% / John Brown 91% / Jaron Brown 58% / Michael Floyd 45%

John Brown and Floyd have essentially traded spots over the first 4 games of the season. With so much variance thus far and an underperforming team, I don’t want to make a definitive statement about Floyd’s status. John Brown, however, I am confident will continue to shine as he was targeted 16 times. Fitzgerald (7) and Floyd (7) only combined for 14 targets.

DeMarco Murray 95% / Derrick Henry 14%

This tandem was a 60/40 RBBC in Weeks 1-3. Murray played well in Week 4 and the Titans rode him all the way. The fact that this can happen is not good for Henry owners in re-draft leagues. Murray may be a trade high candidate following this performance. I recommend targeting Henry as a buy low, but his owners would be wise to hold.

Allen Robinson 97% / Allen Hurns 89% / Marqise Lee 71%

Robinson continues to shine. My concern is for Hurns. The snap count and stats show that Hurns is still the #2, but watching the game and seeing Lee targeted (6) more than Hurns (4) is not a good look. Hurns spent a lot of time blocking and if not for poor tackling and a nice effort on his TD, he would have been a major disappointment in Week 4. Don’t panic, but leave Hurns on your bench until his targets start to rise. Lee does not need to be targeted in fantasy leagues.

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2016 (Week 4) Targets Receptions Yards TD
Robinson 10 7 42 1
Hurns 4 2 47 1
Lee 6 4 28 0
Robert Woods 88% / Marquise Goodwin 80%

With Sammy Watkins out an indefinite period of time, possibly all season, Goodwin and Woods should continue to see increased opportunity. I wouldn’t target these players in a trade, but if Woods is somehow available, add him.

Doug Baldwin 75% / Jermaine Kearse 73% / Paul Richardson 65% / Tyler Lockett 23%

Doug Baldwin revealed that Tyler Lockett is playing through a torn PCL. Lockett was one of the most hyped players in the preseason but we now have a large enough sample size to pull the plug. If the PCL news is accurate, it is more reason to cut your losses on Lockett.

Quincy Enunwa 94% / Brandon Marshall 89% / Robby Anderson 87%

Anderson, a popular deep dynasty league player, is now in the conversation for re-draft leagues. No timetable has been provided on Eric Decker’s return. Anderson should be a free agent target, but don’t break the bank for him.

Bilal Powell 52% / Matt Forte 48%

Forte was banged up in Week 4 and Powell was more effective. Patient Powell owners may be reaping the benefits of that patience in coming weeks.

2016 (Week 4) Rushes Yards TD Targets Receptions Yards TD
Powell 4 26 0 9 6 54 0
Forte 14 27 0 3 2 16 0
Dontrelle Inman 97% / Tyrell Williams 96% / Travis Benjamin 77%

Inman has played a lot this season, but in Week 4, he became the highest targeted (11) WR in San Diego. Who knows what to predict in coming weeks, but this is a situation that bears observation.

Michael Thomas 77% / Brandin Cooks 68% / Willie Snead 67%

The rookie, Thomas, should continue to grow all season and his snap counts should remain consistent if not increase.

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