Snap Count Observations: Five Transactions for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
Week 4 was an interesting one. It will probably go down in history as the “Cordarrelle Patterson Week” which is something I didn’t think I’d ever say again, given his age and status in the league. I was wrong. That was awesome, in many ways. I’ll discuss that more later. Things are finally starting to take shape and the future of our fantasy teams are starting to come into focus. There are still plenty of potential adds available on the waiver wire, but the true team-changing additions are going to primarily be a result of injuries or blockbuster trades in your league. The important thing to keep in mind at this point in the season is how long the season really is. Bye weeks are approaching, and they can make or break your team if you don’t have depth. Don’t drop running backs that are involved heavily in their offense, even if those running backs aren’t producing. You will need them later on, I promise. Backup/Insurance season isn’t quite here yet, but it’s not far off. We may be a full four weeks into the year, but we’re still a full fourteen weeks away from the conclusion of it. Fantasy championships are more than three months out, so stay the course and don’t get overly confident even if you’re 4-0. Similarly, don’t give up if you’re 0-4. I’ve seen plenty of teams make surges towards the playoffs and even win championships from the 0-4 start, so all hope still remains, I promise.
Eye-catching snap counts and my favorite transactions:
The Atlanta Falcons Running Backs
Mike Davis: 67% Snap Share, 46% Rushing Share, 5% Target Share
Cordarrelle Patterson: 30% Snap Share, 21% Rushing Share, 15% Target Share
Wayne Gallman: 13% Snap Share, 21% Rushing Share, 2.5% Target Share
I wanted to just get this out of the way, because it’s the elephant in the room and was the elephant of the week. Patterson has somehow been maintaining RB1 production as of late, despite playing less than 40% of snaps through four weeks. This past weekend he saw his lowest snap share of the season…. yet somehow finished as the overall RB1 on the week, and scored enough points to match the QB4 on the week. An absolute explosion in the box score, despite seeing the field less than he has all year. It was a genuinely mind-blowing statistical anomaly, and it was a blast to watch. Patterson caught two long touchdowns, one of which was a busted coverage, and the other was an awesome catch in the back of the end zone by the 30-year-old veteran. I’ve essentially outlined why he’s a clear trade candidate, and it’s very possible your leaguemates already know how insanely unlikely this past weekend’s performance was. Regression is destined to hit in a big way, and quickly. I cannot stress enough how aggressively you should be trying to ship him out to someone who wants him, even if it’s a mild RB2 offer. Find the Mike Davis manager, or someone hurting at running back, and try to fetch RB2 value if you can. Patterson’s value is never going to be higher than it is right now, even amongst people who doubt him for obvious reasons. There is probably a small part of every manager that wonders if this will continue, and you should go after that twinkle of hope. It won’t continue, at least not for long. As exciting as this feel good story has been, Patterson will likely be an afterthought by the midseason mark, and you should try to get something for him now. If I have to eat these words later, that will be awesome. I’m genuinely rooting for him. We just have to separate our hearts from our heads, and touchdown rate from snap share.
Conclusion: Trade AWAY Cordarrelle Patterson
The Kansas City Chiefs Running Backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 52% Snap Share, 43% Rush Share, 10% Target Share
Darrel Williams: 36% Snap Share, 31% Rush Share, 6.7% Target Share
Please don’t read this section and think I’m dissing CEH at all, because I’m not. I actually think he’s been disrespected this year in a lot of ways. The Chiefs commitment to him through two costly fumbles said a lot about how they view his standing within the organization, and his production has been excellent ever since. I wouldn’t be rushing to dish him, but I also wouldn’t be trying to trade for him. I think he’s a hold for now, but his backup is a strong secondary add once all of the obvious waiver candidates are gone. Darrel Williams has been a perennial feature of waiver wire columns over the past two seasons, yet he never seems to be prioritized until it’s way too late. His current usage isn’t something that warrants lineup consideration, but he’s a lot more involved than people think. He saw 31% of rushes this past weekend, and he plays on one of the most explosive offenses in football. If we’re talking just about usage, it’s worth noting that Williams is more involved for the Chiefs than Patterson is for the Falcons. He’s a primary insurance back, but he’s also a somewhat productive piece of the Chiefs right now. Ten carries is nothing to scoff at, especially with a Patrick Mahomes led attack. Just last season we saw Williams become a top waiver add and during the playoffs he was right next to CEH in overall usage. He’s someone worth stashing on your bench now, before he potentially becomes a necessity.
Conclusion: Stash Darrel Williams
The Buffalo Bills Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs: 73% Snap Share, 33% Target Share
Emmanuel Sanders: 71% Snap Share, 20% Target Share
Cole Beasley: 50% Snap Share, 6% Target Share
Don’t look now, but Emmanuel Sanders is a thing. Actually you should look now, and you should look on your waiver wire if you’re in the 40% of leagues where he’s available. Sanders has become the second option for Josh Allen as of late, and his snap share and target share in Week 4 were eye-popping. He outplayed Cole Beasley, and was on the field much more often. He’s quietly a WR2 through four weeks and he warrants weekly flex consideration in PPR leagues. He’s likely available in a fair amount of ten team leagues and his production matches his usage. The bye weeks are approaching soon, and Sanders is the perfect player to keep on your roster as a fill in. If he’s not on your waiver wire, then he’s someone you should try to trade for on the cheap.
Conclusion: ADD or Trade FOR Emmanuel Sanders
The New York Jets Pass Catchers
Corey Davis: 82% Snap Share, 21% Target Share
Jamison Crowder: 62% Snap Share, 26% Target Share
Elijah Moore: DNP
I’m going out on a PPR sized limb on this one, and I think it’s important to note that I have always been a fan of Jamison Crowder. In his first game back, he commanded a 26% target share despite only seeing 62% of snaps. He’s been a perennial safety net for quarterbacks who don’t push the ball down the field enough, and Zach Wilson is having a brutal start to the year. Crowder is the perfect compliment to a struggling rookie quarterback, and this is exactly who he’s been his entire career. If his snap share increases in week five, then we’re potentially looking at rock solid WR3 with WR2 upside every week in PPR formats. Elijah Moore should be back this Sunday, but he’s an outside receiver who should actually help Crowder find space in the middle of the field. This week could have been a sign of things to come, but there’s also potential upside if Wilson sees him as an SOS signal on the deserted islands of panic. Crowder has been underrated for most of his career and this season looks to be no different. Crowder is available in over 80% of ESPN leagues so if you’re a team that needs receiver help, he can be a boring addition that will produce more fantasy points than a lot of your league-mates expect him to.
Conclusion: ADD Jamison Crowder
The Dallas Cowboys Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz: 79% Snap Share, 36% Target Share
Blake Jarwin: 54% Snap Share, 13% Target Share
It’s pretty puzzling that Schultz is still available in so many leagues, because he’s been productive for a fairly long time now. The Cowboy offense is littered with options in the passing game, but Schultz is a clear favorite of Dak Prescott‘s. Blake Jarwin appears to be playing second fiddle for the Cowboy tight end group, and Schultz is quietly the TE3 on the season so far. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Lonestar state and Schultz isn’t going to continue this insane touchdown production all year, but he should absolutely be rostered if you don’t have one of the top five tight ends. His 18% target share in an offense this prolific shouldn’t be ignored any longer. Fantasy teams that lost Logan Thomas should be sprinting to the waiver wire today, and any team that is struggling at the tight end spot should consider Schultz until he gives us a reason to bench him.
Conclusion: Add Dalton Schultz (Available in 70% of ESPN Leagues)