Predicting the Top 12 QBs for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

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Week 3 saw some monster performances from the top-end elite QBs we know and love minus Lamar Jackson on Monday night football.

Weekly Rank QB Fantasy Points
1 Patrick Mahomes 40
2 Russell Wilson 36.8
3 Josh Allen 31.24
4 Dak Prescott 27.48
5 Jared Goff 27.24
6 Aaron Rodgers 24.52
7 Ryan Fitzpatrick 24.2
8 Tom Brady 23.88
9 Drew Brees 23.52
10 Kyler Murray 21.7
11 Carson Wentz 21.5
12 Joe Burrow 20.38

Last week’s article went 4-for-4 once again on the sits including Matt Ryan and Mitchell Trubisky, who were popular plays heading into the week.

Here is how I break up the weekly prediction article:

Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12.  Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This article isn’t about predicting the exact order of finish, but more identifying which guys have a shot to be among the top-12. There will be QBs from among the 32 you don’t see listed here. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 4.

Four-Sures

Russell Wilson @ MIA
Wilson is in full NBA Jam mode on fire three games in a row. The Dolphins have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QBs and allowing a 72% completion rate so far. Slam dunk.

Patrick Mahomes vs NE
I feel like he’s taken his game up to another level. In three career games versus the Patriots, he’s thrown for 930 yards and eight TDs. Here’s the advice: you should play him.

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Lamar Jackson @ WSH
The Ravens rank dead last in passing yards and the offense looked dreadful against the Chiefs last week. It’s time for Jackson to take over and Washington is the perfect team to steamroll. They’ve seen the highest percentage of 20+ yard targets in the league (17.5%) and Jackson just hasn’t connected with Marquise Brown or Mark Andrews deep yet. Expect an explosion.

Getty Images / Maddie Meyer

Dak Prescott vs CLE
This guy is on pace for 6,300+ passing yards this season. The Browns can rush the passer but also have allowed the 2nd-most plays per game, the 3rd most points per drive, and the 3rd most passing TDs. That’s a recipe for success for the QB who arguably has the highest passing yardage floor in the league. 

Com-Four-table

Aaron Rodgers vs ATL
The Packers are doing an excellent job setting up Rodgers for success in 2020, at least from an offensive line standpoint. They’ve allowed the 2nd lowest sack rate and Rodgers has the highest expected points added on passing plays in the league. He’s still good. It’s a trainwreck for the Atlanta defense. They’ve allowed the 2nd most passing yards, 2nd most plays per game, and 34 fantasy points per game to QBs, MOST in the NFL. Heck, I could bring up about five more statistics letting you know how exploitable the Falcons are. Rodgers on Monday night football seems automatic.

Kyler Murray @ CAR
Murray’s TD rate has improved immensely from his rookie year. He’s averaging the 5th most fantasy points per game and 8.7 rushing attempts per game.  It helps that Carolina’s defense is woof-worthy and has the lowest sack rate in the league. Murray is an every-week start.

Josh Allen @ LV
Allen ranks 2nd in passing yards with the most 20+ yards completions in the league. We’ve seen his ceiling but his floor is also so safe as he’s averaging 7.3 rush attempts per game. It helps that they are running 11-personnel a league-leading 94 percent of the time. If he’s brought you this far, you’re likely a 3-0 or 2-1 team.

Deshaun Watson vs MIN
Watson has yet to truly unlock his fantasy ceiling in 2020. He kept things close last week against Pittsburgh but he’s not running as much as we want with only four attempts per game. The Vikings are a salve allowing the 3rd most passing yards and the second-lowest sack rate in the league. With a 54.5 over/under, I like Houston to get a win even on the road.

Four-in-the-Door

Cam Newton @ KC
While Cam’s fantasy managers were screaming at their TV words of spite towards Rex Burkhead last week, this week will likely be a different story. The Chiefs have looked tough allowing the 3rd fewest passing yards and 5th highest pressure rate. His legs are going to be needed to keep things close with a 53-point Vegas total. Cam is ranked as the Footballers Consensus QB11.

Matthew Stafford vs NO
The Saints defense has definitely turned a corner from where they were a few years ago. However, surprisingly they’ve allowed the 5th MOST points per drive and the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. This game has a 54-point over/under and I like the over. Stafford is Mike’s Start of the Week.

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Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs SEA
Don’t fear playing the beard. Seattle is forcing teams into 51.7 pass attempts per game and they’ve allowed three straight top-7 QB finishes. On DFS, I cannot recommend more the major misprice in Fitzmagic’s salary on DraftKings where he is the QB24. Fitzpatrick is Jason’s Start of the Week.

Joe Burrow vs JAX
It isn’t so much a dart throw as Burrow has been a top-12 guy two of three weeks so far. The pace is something you can bank on as the Bengals rank 2nd in plays per game and 5th in seconds per play. Thus far the Jaguars are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Burrow is Andy’s Start of the Week.

Four-Get-About-It

Drew Brees @ DET
I’m 3-for-3 on Brees this year fading the first two weeks and playing him last week. I’m not a huge fan of his splits as he averaged 196 passing yards per game on the road in 2019. The Lions are getting gashed on the ground so I’m leaning towards this being an Alvin Kamara game. He’s just outside of the top-12 ranked as the Footballers Consensus QB14 for Week 4.

Tom Brady vs LAC
With Chris Godwin declared out, Scotty Miller banged up and Leonard Fournette injured, the Buccaneers are barely going to survive having a squad. They are seven-point favorites at home, a line I’m not in love with against a solid Chargers defense. Brady is a floor play and a floor I’m seeing at 12 fantasy points.

Matt Ryan @ GB
Ryan on the road isn’t a bad thing but things are not trending in a great direction with Atlanta. Trust me, I’m a Falcons fan. The Packers have the 8th highest sack rate and middle of the road against the pass. But Aaron Rodgers knows how to convert 3rd downs and control the clock as the Packers opponents average just 55(!) plays per game, 29th in the NFL. Ryan is a fringe QB1 starter so if you don’t have better options I understand.

Nick Foles vs IND
Last week’s magic shielded the fact he easily could’ve been picked three times in the 4th quarter but #Falcons. The Colts are allowing the fewest passing yards and the 2nd fewest points per drive. Oh, and the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. No thanks.


Last Week: 7/12
2020 Hit Rate: 53%

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