Predicting the Top 12 QBs for Week 15 (Fantasy Football)
Here is how I break up the weekly prediction article:
Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12. Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.
***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This article isn’t about predicting the exact order of finish, but more about identifying which guys have a shot to be among the top-12. There will be QBs from among the 32 teams you don’t see listed here. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 15.
Four-Sures
Aaron Rodgers vs CAR
Rodgers is on fire as the QB1 over the last month. Get this: he has scored 19+ fantasy points in every single game minus one this season. Unbelievable. The Panthers have allowed the 6th most 20+ yard passing plays, the 6th highest pass success rate, and the 2nd highest 3rd down success rate. The Packers should roll at home.
Patrick Mahomes @ NO
He is simply the best. With Drew Brees back in the picture, Mahomes can easily go for 300+ and 3 TDs in this one. It’s wild to set that as the expectation. He has 60 20+ Yard Pass Plays, the most in the NFL.
Lamar Jackson vs JAX
This is the elite QB we all know and love. Poop jokes aside, he’s been the QB6 & QB1 last two weeks despite averaging a robust 185 passing yards per game. His TD rate is down (5.8% from an unreal 9 % last year) but for fantasy, this is the matchup to heal any deep wounds. Jacksonville has allowed the 3rd most rushing yards and the 5th most passing yards. It’s hard to be bad at both. They’ve allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing QBs on the season.
Kyler Murray vs PHI
We finally got to see Kyler attack on the ground last week as he had 13 rush attempts. That was his second-most of the season and he no longer is on the injury report this week. Philadelphia games average the 6th most plays per game and the most rushing yards to opposing QBs in the league. He’s a top-5 guy again for me.
Com-Four-table
Josh Allen @ DEN
Buffalo has the 2nd highest pass success rate (56%) and runs 3-WR sets 92% of the time, the highest in the league. In other words, why not keep chucking it with a young Brett Favre (not saying he’s there but willing to throw with the gun he has) who has the 3rd most passing yards and 3rd most 20+ yard passing plays in the league.
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Deshaun Watson @ IND
If the matchup scares you, realize these two teams played two weeks ago. Watson threw for 341 but fumbled near the goal-line at the end of the game. Over the last five weeks, the Colts are actually the 7th best matchup for fantasy QBs and he should be able to get Brandin Cooks back. Watson is Andy’s Start of the Week.
Jalen Hurts @ ARZ
As a rookie, he came in and beat the Saints. Amazing. With 18 carries and 106 yards on the ground, that will play for fantasy. Arizona is allowing the 6th most rushing yards to opposing QBs. Hurts is Mike’s Start of the Week and he’s a potential league-winner down the stretch.
Jared Goff vs NYJ
Everyone is going to be all about Cam Akers this week. But realize over the last eight weeks, the Jets are actually top-6 against RBs and rank 8th in rush DVOA on the season. Yet, they rank dead last against fantasy QBs and 32nd in pass DVOA. The Jets have given up a top-10 QB performance eight weeks in a row. Be willing to roll with Goff especially with a 30.5 team implied total.
Four In the Door
Drew Brees vs KC
Right on time! Brees hopefully is good to go and will need to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes. Over the last six weeks, the Chiefs have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. The entire Saints passing attack gets a lift with Brees back. Trust the Hall of Famer to put up 270+ and two TDs in this one.
Ryan Tannehill vs DET
Everyone thinks that this is going to be a Derrick Henry… and they’re right. But it doesn’t mean Ryan Tannehill can’t get in on the fun. The Lions rank 30th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 7th most passing yards on the season. They also allow the 2nd highest pass success rate and the 3rd most 20+ yard pass plays, an A.J. Brown special.
Philip Rivers @ HOU
Pee River has totaled 18+ fantasy points in six of his seven games. Houston ranks 26th in pass DVOA, allowing the 9th most passing yards, and safety Justin Reid was just placed on IR. We know how awesome T.Y. Hilton is against this team. He’s a safe start if you need someone.
Mitch Trubisky @ MIN
Minnesota is allowing 5th most TD passes (26) and bottom eight in sacks (21) and bottom-12 in QB hits. You probably want to close your eyes but Mitch is the QB9 since taking over as starter out of the bye. The ceiling is always there with Mitch but the floor is sitting on the bench the rest of the game. Use caution.
Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Four-Get-About-It
Russell Wilson @ WAS
You’re not benching him if you made it this far but the matchup is a nightmare. Washington is allowing the 2nd fewest 20+ yard pass plays in the NFL and you know the type of pressure they bring. Wilson’s worst games were against elite pass rushes:
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- Wk10 @ LAR– Sacked six times (QB19)
- Wk12 @ PHI– The highest Adjusted Sack Rate in the league (QB19)
- Wk13 vs. NYG– Sacked five times (QB21)
Wilson has more “pressured” dropbacks than anyone in the NFL. He’s startable but the upside isn’t there.
Baker Mayfield @ NYG
Over the last three weeks, he’s been the QB12, QB3, and QB2. The Giants are allowing the 4th fewest 20+ yard pass plays so I don’t really see a ceiling. He’s run the most plays “under center” and the fewest in shotgun in the NFL. The Browns might run the ball 30+ times in this one.
Ben Roethlisberger @ CIN
Big Ben has 31 career games versus Cincinnati, almost two seasons worth. He’s won eight straight against them. But he’s a middling uninspiring start with little upside. The Steelers haven’t scored over 20 points in any of the last three games.
Matt Ryan vs. TB
Since their bye week, Matt Ryan, Mr. Yardage, has averaged 228 passing yards per game. That’s not going to cut it. The Buccaneers also have the 4th highest pressure rate in the league. With Julio Jones officially out, there’s no way you can start him.
2020 Hit Rate: 54%
Comments
Thanks KB!