Predicting the Top 12 QBs for Week 11 (Fantasy Football)

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In very Footballers-esque fashion, the predictor sits at 55(!) percent on the season. Here were last week’s top-12 QBs:

Weekly Rank QB Fantasy Points
1 Tom Brady* 31.84
2 Kyler Murray* 29.9
3 Ben Roethlisberger 29.32
4 Josh Allen* 26.36
5 Aaron Rodgers* 25.4
6 Matthew Stafford 23.04
7 Daniel Jones* 22.16
8 Lamar Jackson* 21.46
9 Justin Herbert 20.48
10 Teddy Bridgewater 19.04
11 Kirk Cousins 17.58
12 Cam Newton 16.82

Here is how I break up the weekly prediction article:

Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12.  Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This article isn’t about predicting the exact order of finish, but more about identifying which guys have a shot to be among the top-12. There will be QBs from among the 32 teams you don’t see listed here. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 11.

Four-Sures

Kyler Murray @ SEA
Russell Wilson vs ARZ
For space sake, I’m going to lump these two together. With the highest total of the week, I cannot wait to watch this Thursday night matchup. Remember, in Week 7 we got a treat with the Cardinals pulling out a win 37-34. While Wilson has had two disappointing games in a row, you have to expect him to turn things around against a Cardinals defense that was exposed against Josh Allen last week. Wilson is averaging 310 passing yards per game while Kyler Murray is not fair at all each week.

Patrick Mahomes @ LV
We get Mahomes back from bye and the Chiefs are ready to seek some revenge after losing to their division rivals earlier in the year. He’s averaging 26 fantasy points per game. Enough said.

David Eulitt/Getty Images

Justin Herbert vs NYJ
Our freshly cut friend Justin gets a cake matchup against the NFL team known as the Jets. They rank dead last in pass DVOA allowing the 4th most fantasy points to the QB position. Expect Herbert to get back on track with Keenan Allen this week and stomp on this Jets game.

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Com-Four-table

Lamar Jackson vs TEN
This is the week. Lamar and the Ravens remember how they were trounced last year in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Tennessee has allowed 27+ points to opposing offenses in six of last seven and the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs over the last six weeks. Jackson is Mike’s Start of the Week.

Deshaun Watson vs NE
Ok, you may look at the matchup with Uncle Bill and say to yourself “should I be scared of Watson this week?” I’ll let this recent tweet dispel your worries:

Their season-long stats and yardage totals don’t look bad because New England slows the game down so much that teams are getting in such a small amount of plays. Watson has been money since the other Bill (O’Brien) left and you need to keep rolling with him. Watson is Jason’s Start of the Week.

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Aaron Rodgers @ IND
You play the guy sporting an 8.3 percent TD rate regardless of the matchup. The Colts have a stingy defense but Rodgers to Adams is almost a guarantee for two TDs. I will make a note that Rodgers has been #bad in some regard ranking 35th in adjusted completion percentage under pressure.

Ben Roethlisberger @ JAX
Last week was a great display of the Steelers passing attack as all three of their stud WRs had great games. The Jaguars are rough on all fronts allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QBs over the last six weeks. Big Ben is the Footballers Consensus QB5 and a high floor pick as a 10-point road favorite,

Four-in-the-Door

Matt Ryan @ NO
Despite going on the road, you should be excited about Ryan and his history against his NFC South division rival. He’s averaged 298 passing yards and 1.9 passing TDs per game versus New Orleans in his career. If Julio is out on the field, I want to start Matt Ryan. If Calvin Ridley returns, I think he’s a smash play.

Cam Newton @ HOU
It’s been a bumpy ride and with only three passing TDs on the season, you might be terrified. If it helps you, I’ll be rolling with Newton in my home league. He’s been a top-12 guy in six of his eight starts and this Houston defense ain’t good people. They’re allowing a 18:2 TD:INT ratio and rank dead last in passer rating allowed.

Carson Wentz @ CLE
I know Wentz has been a complete train wreck week-to-week. But if he has time, I like his chances on the road to put up 250+ passing yards and two TDs. Luckily, the Browns have the 2nd lowest pressure rate and are allowing 20.3 fantasy points per game to the QB position. He’s a roll of the dice for your fantasy team so close your eyes when you select him for your rosters.

Alex Smith vs CIN
Smith has been the most competent Washington QB this year and I don’t mind him as a streamer this week. He’s completing 79 percent of his play-action passes, the highest rate in the league albeit on a small sample size. I doubt he hits 55(!) pass attempts again but he’s the type of compiler who can get to QB1 status. The Bengals allow the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs over the last six weeks.

Four-Get-About-It

Tom Brady vs LAR
Have you seen this Rams defensive front? Have you seen Brady under pressure. Both of these defenses will stifle the offensive production and I don’t love Brady’s ceiling. The Rams have given up the 3rd fewest points to opposing QBs.

Getty Images / Sarah Stier

Jameis Winston vs ATL
I don’t trust the guy. If you’re fighting for the playoffs and need high upside, I get it. But I think New Orleans wins with defense and the ground game.

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Ryan Tannehill @ BAL
I see Tannehill game-managing this one. The gameplan should be simple: feed Derrick Henry the rock. Remember last year in the AFC Divisional round the dude ran for 195 rushing yards against the vaunted Ravens run defense.

Jared Goff @ TB
He was the play last week against Seattle but the Rams ran it in on the ground. Sit the former #1 pick this week against a Buccaneers defense ranked #1 in Pass DVOA. No thank you.


Last Week: 6/12

2020 Hit Rate: FIFTY FIIIIVE! %

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