NFL Week 11 Weather Conditions

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Winter storm Argos is getting most of the attention while it brings temperatures in the northeast crashing down along with high winds and rain/snow, but two storms will dump rain along much of the west coast and the east coast will see high winds. The word is out about the crappy weather expected in Cleveland, but there are several games that will experience less than ideal weather this week. This is definitely a week to closely monitor the weather in several games.

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Here are your NFL Week 11 weather forecasts:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM ET
FIRSTENERGY STADIUM
CLEVELAND, OHIO

Temp: 35°
Precipitation: Chance of light rain/snow during game
Wind: 26 mph
Wind Gusts: 32 mph

Fantasy Impact: I doubt it snows in this game, but any snow or rain that does fall won’t be significant. The field might be a little sloppy from precipitation that is expected through most of the morning and afternoon, but the winds are the biggest concern from a fantasy perspective. Winds will come from the northeast while FirstEnergy Stadium has a northwest-southeast orientation. In other words, the winds will blow nearly perpendicular with the field creating difficult conditions for the quarterbacks and kickers throughout the game.

Don’t go crazy scrounging the waiver wire to replace Ben Roethlisberger with who knows who, but Big Ben has been pedestrian on the road and the weather doesn’t help even with a dream matchup against Cleveland. If you have another good option at QB like Andrew Luck, go with them but don’t be too concerned if you have to start Big Ben. You didn’t draft Antonio Brown to get cute and sit him when he plays in a little bad weather-start your studs. The weather arguably boosts Le’Veon Bell who would have already had a great matchup. Eli Rogers is a viable sneaky start for desperate owners in PPR leagues.

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The Cleveland pass attack that showed promise early in the season has fizzled out and this weather won’t help. The good news is the weather should force Cleveland to go back to Isaiah Crowell who continues to play well but has seen his touches inexplicably decline in recent weeks. Crowell is Cleveland’s only hope and recent comments by Hue Jackson suggest he knows the running game needs to get going again.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants
1:00 PM ET
METLIFE STADIUM
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY

Temp: 44°
Precipitation: 40% chance of light showers during game
Wind: 21 mph
Wind Gusts: 30 mph

Fantasy Impact: Eli Manning has one of the lower Air Yards/Attempt in the league at only 3.45 (in fact, more of his yards have come after the catch than through the air), which means the winds shouldn’t impact him as much as other QBs but this wind certainly doesn’t help the fringe start-worthy players like Sterling Shepard and Will Tye.

Jay Cutler has one of the higher Air Yards/Attempt at 4.36 and now doesn’t have Alshon Jeffery. Cutler was awful against Tampa Bay last week completing only 53% of his passes and now has to contend with strong winds and a good New York Giants defense. There’s always the chance the wind corrects Cutler’s errant throws, but this is a game to avoid Cutler along with his receivers Cameron Meredith and Eddie Royal. Zach Miller could be a sneaky play if he sees an uptick in targets and Jordan Howard should still be a solid RB2.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM ET
PAUL BROWN STADIUM
CINCINNATI, OHIO

Temp: 37°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 13 mph
Wind Gusts: 18 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM ET
ARROWHEAD STADIUM
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI

Temp: 46°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 13 mph
Wind Gusts: 18 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams
4:05 PM ET
LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA

Temp: 68°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 8 mph
Wind Gusts: 8 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
4:25 PM ET
CENTURYLINK STADIUM
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON

Temp: 50°
Precipitation: Light rain expected during game
Wind: 9 mph
Wind Gusts: 23 mph

Fantasy Impact: The rain may make the ball slippery, which could be trouble for C.J. Prosise who fumbled five times on 156 carries with the Fighting Irish last year. If he does fumble, it’s one more reason for Seattle to ride Thomas Rawls more throughout the rest of the season. Monitor this game for any worsening conditions but the wind and rain shouldn’t be an issue for most players.

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New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers
4:25 PM ET
LEVI’S STADIUM
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA

Temp: 62°
Precipitation: Rain expected during game
Wind: 7 mph
Wind Gusts: 8 mph

Fantasy Impact: This game might see the heaviest rainfall on Sunday, but it shouldn’t be heavy enough to significantly change the fantasy outlook for any players. That being said there’s no room for error with three RBs now vying for touches in New England. Keep that in the back of your mind if any New England RB coughs up a slick ball.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins
8:30 PM ET
FEDEX FIELD
LANDOVER, MARYLAND

Temp: 35°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 15 mph
Wind Gusts: 38 mph

Fantasy Impact:  This will be a moment of honest vulnerability from me. I have no idea what to make of this game. The wind forecast is a little trippy because a 23 mph difference between sustained winds and gusts is the biggest I’ve seen this year by far. If the wind gusts are infrequent, sustained winds of 15 mph are no big deal, but frequent gusts of 38 mph are not good for quarterbacks in fantasy football. At the same time do you bench Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins that faces a defense that got torched by Tennessee last week?

I don’t see how you sit Aaron Rodgers for this game, but the big question is who among Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams do you play. Nelson is likely to face Josh Norman if he lines up on the outside and now the deep pass may be off the board if the winds to turn out to be as strong as forecasted. You would expect Nelson to be that deep threat but according to Matt Harmon, Nelson has earned 42.7% of his yardage from the slot in the last three weeks.

If Green Bay continues to use Nelson in the slot, Nelson should have a big game. On the other hand, Nelson could be completely shut down if Green Bay uses him exclusively on the outside but that would open it up for Adams.

Of course, this is all mute if James Starks is able to move the ball against a Washington defense that has been weak against the run. The same goes for Robert Kelley who faces a Green Bay defense that ranks well against the run but has been gashed by good rushing attacks.

They don’t pay me to muddy waters so here’s what I think will happen. The Green Bay offense is only as good as the connection between Jordy Nelson and Aaron Rodgers. I think they move Nelson around to get him in the game. Starks’ numbers looked OK last week, but Green Bay was in catch-up mode through virtually the whole game giving Starks room to run. Starks looked terrible earlier in the year and will probably struggle if Washington isn’t solely focused on stopping the passing attack. If (when) the run games struggles, Green Bay will use Randall Cobb on some gadgety end-around plays and/or WR screens.

On the other side of the ball, I think Robert Kelley continues to “plug and chug,” but he’s not a homerun hitter. I think Washington gets their big plays through the air by targeting Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed against Green Bay’s depleted LB corps and secondary. Jamison Crowder should also get in the mix, but I’m not as high on him as I was earlier in the week. Who ends of getting the TDs remains anyone’s guess. Cousins has had a passing TD in 31/33 games with 20 or more pass attempts and I think he’s good for a couple TDs regardless of the wind. I also see Robert Kelley punching one in on the ground to go with 15-20 touches.

Houston Texans “at” Oakland Raiders
MNF 8:30 PM ET
ESTADIO AZTECA
MEXICO CITY (SANTA URSULA), MEXICO

Temp: 60°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 6 mph
Wind Gusts: 8 mph

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Fantasy Impact: What a great week to head south of the border!

Remember to stay tuned for Mike “The Hitman” Wright as he answers last-second questions on Periscope on our Twitter page before Sunday kickoff.

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