NFC West Questions: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: What numbers should we reasonable expect from Jimmy Graham?
In perhaps the biggest move of the offseason, the New Orleans traded away their star TE to Seattle for Center Max Unger, and a 1st round pick in this Mays draft. That noise you heard afterwards was every Graham keeper owner sighing in disappointment. There is no question that moving from the high powered passing offense of New Orleans led by Drew Brees to the more run-centric offense of Seattle is not a great move. However, I think that some have dropped Graham a few too many spots in their ranks. Personally, I see a slight drop in value, but I still picture him as a late third round pick, or an early 4th round pick. Some have been so bold as to vault Travis Kelce (who I do like), above Graham in the TE ranks. I disagree with that ranking, as Graham is still my #2 TE behind the almighty Gronk. Below are my statistical projections for Graham.
I believe that Russell Wilson will throw around 475 passes this season. Over the last three years, Wilson has increased his passes from 393 in 2012, to 403 in 2013 to 452 in 2014. I believe that another slight increase will come as Graham makes his way in.
I expect around a 60% catch rate, and 12-13 yards per reception out of Graham.
I expect around 120 targets. With a 60% catch rate, Graham will catch around 72 balls. This will give him 900 yards. I expect him to catch around 10 TDs or so. This places him with practically the same fantasy points as last year, which made him the #3 TE behind Gronk and Gates. Sure Kelce has the ability to pass him, but I’m not sure I’m comfortable making that leap. If Graham puts up 900 yards and 10 TDs, I would be happy investing a late 3rd rounder in him.
I agree that Graham won’t hit 1k yards, but I have to believe after the Super Bowl the Seahawks will give the ball to my main man Marshawn inside the RZ. But, with WR crew I think Graham will be the second option instead of the first inside the RZ, like he was in New Orleans.
I think Graham will struggle to hit 1K yards receiving but the double digit touchdowns seem like a slam dunk assuming health. He’s got nobody to compete with for RZ targets and Seattle has been sorely missing a presence there.