Almost everyone is familiar with the statement “One man’s trash is another man’s treasure.” Savvy fantasy owners look for opportunities to trade away players that have perceived values greater than their true value. In dynasty fantasy football leagues, there is no better time for trading than the offseason. Our writing staff compiled a list of players that we are using as ammunition in dynasty trades this offseason. Please see our staff’s dynasty “sells”, below!
Derrick Henry (RB, Titans)
I’ll preface this by saying that if you’re a contending team in your dynasty league, then you should probably hold Derrick Henry, as he’s likely to carry the rock another 300 times in 2020 behind a good offensive line. But, if you’re a middling team or a team in rebuild, you’ve got to get out from the 2019 rushing leader.
Is Henry a very good NFL running back? Yes he is. However, he’s not the type of running back in which I want to invest in dynasty formats. Henry led the NFL in rushing with over 1,500 yards, yet he still only finished as RB7 in PPR formats. He just doesn’t catch the ball, and in today’s fantasy football, that’s a huge knock. Coming off a career year, I’m looking to sell high on King Henry. In free agency, the Titans chose to pay Ryan Tannehill rather than Henry (Henry got the franchise tag), and we can expect A.J. Brown to take a step forward in year two. After 2020, there’s also a chance Henry isn’t on the Titans’ roster given the lack of commitment from the team. I’m selling before the bottom falls out. – Matthew Betz @TheFantasyPT
Aaron Jones (RB, Packers)
Let me start off by saying Aaron Jones was #MyGuy among the TFFB writers for 2019. He’s a very talented player on a good football team. In fact, last offseason I wrote an article about why Aaron Jones is a League Winner for redraft leagues. He’s one of my favorite players to watch, but you should trade him in dynasty leagues.
Jones finished as the RB2 overall in 2019. He had eight games over 15 points. This was tied for second-most. He also had five games with less than 7 points, which was the most among the top-24 running backs. Jones is a polarizing player that has the potential to win you a matchup on any given week. However, he’s inconsistent and regression is likely coming after he paced all running backs in the NFL with 19 total touchdowns in 2019. Furthermore, there is a risk that the Packers get Jamaal Williams more involved like we’ve seen in some games in the past. Aaron Jones is at his peak value in dynasty, and anyone who’s a dynasty veteran knows that running backs have a shorter shelf life than other positions – just ask the David Johnson owner. For context, in November I traded Aaron Jones and Devonta Freeman for Austin Ekeler, Marlon Mack, Carson Wentz, and the 2020 rookie 1.09. – Jeff Greenwood @TheFantasyEng
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Cowboys)
There may be a lot made of the Cowboys offense with Ezekiel Elliott locked up, Dak Prescott back under the franchise tag and Amari Cooper back with a massive contract of his own. You may not hear as much about the retirement of Travis Frederick, one of the best centers in the league. There are also question marks surrounding what the offense will look like with Mike McCarthy in charge, even though Kellen Moore will continue to call the plays.
In dynasty leagues, it’s all about value, and running backs lose it quickly. Last summer Elliot signed a record-breaking contract extension after a holdout that dragged on most of the summer. He became the highest-paid back in the league, surpassing Devonta Freeman, David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Todd Gurley. That could just as easily be a list of running backs whose fantasy value recently crashed. Zeke finished 2019 as the RB4 and is likely to be a top-ten running back again in 2020, but he probably has more fantasy points in his past than his future at this point. Now is the time to ship him out for the biggest haul you can get. – Aaron Larson @aalarson
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, Browns)
I know the typical goal when looking at “Sell Guys” is to move them at their peak…well, you may have missed that already on OBJ and now it’s “Get out while you can”. How many red flags do you want?
- He’s recovering from offseason core surgery
- He’ll be playing for his 3rd new coach in three seasons and the same goes for his QB, Baker Mayfield.
- That coach, Kevin Stefanski, prefers to run the football.
Last year, the Browns threw the football 69 more times than what Stefanski did in Minnesota. Fewer opportunities are not the goal when for your WR1 in fantasy football. In 2019, Beckham averaged the fewest target-per-game of his career at 8.3. Those 8.3 targets were still two more targets-per-game than any WR averaged in Minnesota. The fact is, we may have already seen Beckham’s fantasy apex but we may not have seen his floor so move him while his name is still worth something. Last week, in a full PPR dynasty, I was able to get Stefon Diggs, T.Y. Hilton, and the rookie 3.08 for OBJ. – Ryan Weisse @TheFantasyFive
Zach Ertz (TE, Eagles)
When it comes to tight-ends in a dynasty league, they come at a premium especially when you can lock someone in for four or five years as an elite starter. Ertz has been rock solid totaling 74+ receptions for five seasons in a row and is second only to Travis Kelce in targets and yards since 2015. But that kind of productivity is hard to sustain for another two or three years which makes me want to get out now especially if someone is willing to pay up. Ertz also greatly benefited from the entire Eagles’ wide-receiving group being plagued with injuries in 2019.
On sites such as Dynasty League Football, Ertz is ranked as high as the TE4 or TE5 in startup leagues. He certainly is still worth that in 2020 but he’s about to hit his age 30 season with real competition from teammate Dallas Goedert. Also, nobody is talking about his contract which jumps to a $12 million cap hit this year. In 2021, the Eagles can get out for just a $7.5 million dead cap hit and they might want to consider that option to not pay for two tight-ends.
If your team has other readily available TE options that are younger and a tier below Ertz such as Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, or Darren Waller, I’ll glad ship out Ertz to a team that has a 1st round rookie pick available. The point isn’t to overvalue younger players as some do in dynasty but to be ahead of the curve in terms of Ertz’s career arc. – Kyle Borgognoni @kyle_borg