Finding Value in Drafts: Teammate ADP Arbitrage (Fantasy Football)
A quick google search brings up this definition of arbitrage: “the simultaneous buying and selling of securities, currency, or commodities in different markets or in derivative forms in order to take advantage of differing prices for the same asset.” Winning your draft and putting yourself in a solid position to win your league is greatly aided by finding value on the board.
We’re looking for affordable players whose production will match, or at least come close to matching, their more expensive counterparts. Here are five examples of teammates whose ADP’s are so far apart, it allows for some great deals on draft day. (ADP Data is gathered from over 100 FFPC Classic Best Ball Drafts over the past two weeks).
Devin Singletary (48.3 overall, RB26) vs. Zack Moss (119.4 overall, RB46)
As I highlighted in a previous article, Sean McDermott has been the head coach in Buffalo for three seasons and they have never finished outside of the top ten in either rushing attempts or rushing yards during that time. The Bills’ have a run-first philosophy and a defense that allows them to execute their strategy. Buffalo’s defense ranked top six in yards allowed per game, points allowed per game, overall Defensive DVOA, and pass DVOA last season.
Singletary looks like a solid pick at RB26 overall, especially since he looked fantastic as a rookie. He finished his rookie season with overall league ranks of tied for 23rd in opportunities per game (16), 26th in total yards per game (80.8), and 16th in rushing yards per game (64.6). And he did this after an extremely productive collegiate career at Florida Atlantic.
However, with Frank Gore gone, 11.4 opportunities per game are now up for grabs from last season. And just like Devin Singletary the year before him, Zack Moss was just drafted in the third round by Buffalo. Moss is an elusive, power RB with capable hands in the receiving game. He legitimately seems to be a perfect fit for what Buffalo wants to do.
Moss should immediately assume Gore’s old role and it must be mentioned, there’s a chance Moss beats out Singletary for the starting job as well. Listed at 20 pounds heavier than Singletary, Moss has goalline usage and TD upside. Moss is a target for me at RB46.
Kenny Golladay (31.8 overall, WR8) vs. Marvin Jones (109.6 overall, WR38)
The ADP Discount here for Marvin Jones is just fantastic. Look how similar his production was to Golladay’s last season:
|Player||Targets per game||Receptions per game||Receiving Yards per game||TDs per game|
Golladay is a baller and I have no problem with his high draft cost whatsoever. But its Jones’ ADP I’m perplexed about. Still only 30 years old, Jones will also benefit from the projected return of a healthy Matthew Stafford.
Amari Cooper (36 overall, WR10) vs. Michael Gallup (81.6 overall, WR30)
Drafting assets in the Cowboys’ passing game is super exciting since they ranked second in the league in passing yards last season. And I agree that should start with Amari Cooper. Dallas is committed to Cooper long-term after re-signing Cooper to a five-year, $100 million contract this offseason. Still only 26 years old, Cooper has posted 1,000+ receiving yards in four of his five NFL seasons and averaged 7.8 targets, 5.3 catches, 76.6 receiving yards, and 0.6 TDs per game in 25 contests playing with Dak Prescott.
Drafters are much more confident in Cooper being the clear-cut #1 option in the passing game than I am though. Michael Gallup’s redraft ADP is actually closer to CeeDee Lamb (120.4 overall and WR40) than Cooper. And I just believe that’s disrespectful considering Gallup actually led the Cowboys in targets per game (8.1) and receiving yards per game (79.1) last season. That’s right, he beat out Cooper in both of these categories.
Lamb is certainly exciting as well and his presence doesn’t help Cooper and Gallup. However, the departures of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten leave 10.7 targets per game up for grabs. Lamb will soak up most of those, while Cooper and Gallup both continue to stay extremely relevant in 2020.
DeVante Parker (70.3 overall, WR27) vs. Preston Williams (158.8 overall, WR52)
Looking at this incredible gap in ADP, it’s clear drafters have forgotten Preston Williams was outplaying DeVante Parker prior to his mid-season ACL tear. Here are Parker and Williams’ statistics playing together in Weeks 1-9:
|Targets per game||Receptions per game||Receiving Yards per game||TDs per game|
I totally get it though, as Parker is an exciting former first-round pick who finally put it all together last season, exploding in the second half of the year seeing 9.5 targets per game and bringing in per game totals of 5.5 catches for 100.3 receiving yards and 0.6 TDs.
This is more about Preston Williams’ affordable price tag. Miami’s current WR3 appears to be Albert Wilson. Thus, Williams should walk right back into the WR2 role on a poor real-life team that will have to throw plenty in 2020. His 158.8 overall ADP is a steal.
Allen Robinson (36.8 overall, WR12) vs. Anthony Miller (158.3 overall, WR51)
ARob is a total baller and the clear-cut WR1 in Chicago. But I’m not so sure the gap in ADP between ARob and Anthony Miler should be this wide. Miller posted seasons of 1,434 and 1,462 receiving yards respectively as a junior and senior at Memphis and has totaled 1,079 receiving yards in his first two years in the NFL.
With Taylor Gabriel no longer on the Bears and 35-year-old Ted Ginn brought in as his replacement, it finally looks like Miller is going to be the locked-in WR2 on the team this season. And Miller finished strong in 2019, seeing nine or more targets and catching six or more passes in four of his final seven games. Expect his opportunities and production to climb in year three. I love his value late in drafts.