Fantasy Footballers Writing Staff “My Guy” Picks for 2019
With The Fantasy Footballers Podcast recently releasing the annual “My Guy” episode at the LA Live Show, we asked our writing staff who they would “hitch” themselves to this season and go along for the ride. A “My Guy” is more than just a player who we like in a situation we agree with. This is someone you’re willing to back with the perfect combination of ability, opportunity, draft cost, and the upside to make you look like a fantasy guru at the end of the season.
Use the #MyGuy on Twitter and let us know who YOUR fantasy My Guy is this upcoming season.
Latavius Murray, RB, New Orleans Saints
Latavius Muray finds himself in a completely upgraded situation in 2019. He’ll be running behind one of the best offensive lines for a team that has increasingly run the ball more than they’ve passed it for two consecutive seasons. Alvin Kamara may be the lead back, but history tells us that the Saints will employ a running-back-by-committee approach in their backfield. Murray should secure a role similar to the one vacated by Mark Ingram, who finished as the RB28 last year despite his four-game suspension and finished as the RB6 in 2017. Murray will have stand-alone value every week as an RB2 that always carries RB1 upside in the Saints offense. You also get the inherent bonus of having one of the most valuable handcuffs in the league if something were to happen to Kamara. -Aaron Larson (@aalarson)
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones has elite talent and an opportunity to be the lead back on what should be a top-10 NFL offense. He has a career rushing efficiency of 5.5 yards per carry (over 24 games). In the eight games last year where he had at least 10 total touches, he averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game. He is currently being valued at a discount due to concerns that Jamaal Williams will eat into his workload despite Jones being the far superior RB. While this is certainly a risk, Jones only needs 10-15 touches a game to be a stud. I’ll happily spend a 3rd round draft pick on Aaron Jones, who has a legitimate opportunity to break out into the top-5 at the position. -Jeff Greenwood (@jeffgreenwould)
Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers
D.J. Moore should take a big step forward in 2019 but the difference in draft price makes Curtis Samuel all that more enticing as a late-round target. In the back half of last season, the two had almost identical fantasy production but there’s a six-round difference between them going into drafts this year. Samuel has garnered some serious hype in training camp and his reception perception numbers were off the charts. It’s not a knock on Moore at all, it’s simply a draft equity situation. If he can keep up with Moore in 2019 then he’d more than return his draft price, and there’s a realistic chance that he outproduces him straight up. If Cam Newton can stay healthy then he’d be wise to target Samuel down the field early and often. He has a unique skillset and he can only improve upon a quietly impressive rookie campaign as he develops chemistry with his quarterback. We might be on the verge of a new generation of Carolina pass catchers, and my money’s on Samuel to be someone that wins you a league in 2019. -Rob Wilson (@TheFFGator)
Daniel Bartel/Icon Sportswire
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb should be a key beneficiary of great opportunities in 2019. Beginning in Week 7, he exploded for 799 yards on 167 carries and six rushing TDs, adding 18 receptions for 153 yards and two TDs on 25 targets through Week 16. This nine-game sample (Week 11 Bye) saw Chubb as the RB7. His Week 7-16 was a pace of 297 carries for 1,420 rushing yards, and 11 TDs. His receiving extrapolates to an acceptable 32 receptions for 272 yards on 44 targets and an additional four TDs. Chubb’s pace would have been a top-5 RB. With Baker Mayfield at QB, Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry at WR, and David Njoku at TE, there are going to be plenty of long, extended drives for the Cleveland Browns offense in 2019. Here’s the best part: fantasy players are getting a great discount on Chubb with a mid-second round ADP as players fade him based on the Kareem Hunt signing. I have no fear of Hunt’s return after his eight-game suspension, which won’t happen until Week 10 (CLE has a Week 7 Bye). One the keys to winning a Fantasy Championship is making the playoffs. Having an RB with top-5 upside, available in the second or even early third round for the first nine weeks of the season is a great way to do that. Lastly, we have no idea how Hunt will be phased into the offense when he returns. If Chubb is having a great season, there is no reason for the coaching staff to remove him from the game plan. -Michael Weinrich (@mpw270)
Donte Moncrief, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Moncrief is finally in a position to have the year he is meant to have on an offense that desperately needs veteran stability. Harmon’s Reception Perception shows that JuJu Smith-Schuster struggles to create separation downfield and should be living in the slot and mid-field where he is most effective and productive, leaving downfield wide open. With only a 0.3% differential between the WR1 and WR2 percentage of targets, there will be a plethora of opportunity for a wide receiver to explode with fantasy points in 2019. Add to that, Antonio Brown‘s vacated targets at 168. Even if Smith-Schuster is able to absorb 25% of those targets, you are still left with 126 targets up for grabs. Behind Moncrief are TE Vance McDonald, who will also see the target percentage left by Jesse James, James Washington who has garnered very little trust with Big Ben over the 2018 season, and rookie Diontae Johnson. Aside from talent, coaching and Big Ben have both had nothing but glowing compliments to heap upon the veteran’s back, including his knowledge of the playbook from Day 1 of OTAs. At a ridiculously cheap ADP, Moncrief isn’t even a real risk to snag and you could end up with the logical WR2 seeing well over 100 targets with proven talent in 2019. -Lauren Carpenter (@stepmomlauren)
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Its been an entire off-season love affair as I believe Andrews can provide some of the same insane YAC-ability that made George Kittle so dominant in 2018. Andrews had two of the longest TE receptions last year (a 74-yard reception in Week 12 & a 68-yard-TD in Week 16) despite being a rookie on a Lamar Jackson-led passing offense. If he remains ahead of Hayden Hurst as a pure pass catcher, Andrews definitely has the skillset and situation to assert himself as the No. 1 weapon among a thin Ravens receiving corp. His off-season buzz isn’t just fluff. He has become a popular late-round TE sleeper heading into the season which I hate. Andrews is currently rising in drafts over the last month but as the TE16, he’s still basically free. I’ll gladly swing for the fences willing to start him Week 1 in any league. I’m bullish enough to believe he has top-5 TE upside and an opportunity to see 100+ targets even in a low-volume passing offense. -Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg)
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
As the staff injury guy, I have to stay on-brand and select a player who I’m confident will bounce back from injury in 2019. Prior to tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee in 2017, Wentz was putting up MVP numbers and was the QB2 overall in fantasy football. Aside from efficiency through the air, what helped elevate Wentz to an elite level for fantasy? Rushing. He was on pace for 79 rush attempts and was elusive in the pocket, allowing for the offense to remain on track and extend plays down the field. What was different last year? Wentz was only on pace for 49 rush attempts before being shut down with a stress fracture in his lower back (which is fully healed). Now more than a full year removed from the knee injury, Wentz will return to his mobility levels that allowed him to reach elite levels in fantasy football. Oh, and have you seen that skill position group? The addition of DeSean Jackson should add a few deep bombs to elevate his passing numbers. I’m all in on the Philly QB. -Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
I have been beating the “Draft Your QB Late” drum for as long as anyone. Year-in and year-out, I didn’t care who my QB was, as long as I got him in double-digit rounds. That changes this year. Last season, I had a gut-feeling about Patrick Mahomes but only got him in about half my leagues and, thankfully, he was able to be had towards the end of the draft. This year it’s Baker Mayfield. In the words of fellow writer Ben Cummins, “The Cleveland offense is going to be nuclear this year” Baker has so many weapons that 4000+yards and 30+ TDs seems like a virtual lock and that maybe his floor. You can’t really go wrong with any part of this Browns offense but give me the man who will make it run, Baker Mayfield. Now, I will have to pay a 5th Round pick to ensure that I get him, which goes against my core fantasy beliefs, but to land Baker, I am okay with that and I am building my entire 2019 draft strategy around it. -Ryan Weisse (@TheFantasyFive)
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We’ve seen flashes of Godwin’s talent now for two seasons, but it’s never led to fantasy stardom due to the depth of the receiving corps in Tampa Bay. That all changes now with Jackson and Humphries vacating a total of 179 targets. Arians is now the head coach in Tampa Bay and all reports indicate that Godwin will step into the Larry Fitzgerald role in that system. With a lack of an established running game, a porous defense and a “pass-happy” offense, the Bucs are going to be throwing the ball a lot this year. With no other predominant receiving options behind Mike Evans and O.J. Howard, Godwin is in line for a huge target volume this season with touchdown upside. Based on my projection model, he’s my WR11 in 0.5-point scoring formats. -Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)
D.J. Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
I thought I was going to go with Vance McDonald, but his ADP has shot up to the point where I can’t call him ‘my guy.’ I’m calling an audible and going with D.J. Moore. In a season where the wheels fell off for the Carolina Panthers, Moore still manged to put up nearly 800 yards in his rookie season. The Carolina Panthers look primed to bounce back with Cam Newton’s shoulder appearing to be a non-issue, Christian McCaffrey doing his thing, Greg Olsen back from his foot injury, and Curtis Samuel providing big-play ability. Moore’s Fifth-Round ADP makes him the ideal third or fourth WR for your fantasy team. If Moore takes any sort of step up and becomes the primary receiver on a very good offense, he’s going to be a fantasy gem. Every indicator makes him look primed for a breakout this year. Get him while he’s cheap. –Eric Ludwig (@FFGouge)