Fantasy Footballers Podcast Recap: The TRUTH About Second Tier RBs in 2019
As the 2019 TRUTH series continues this month, we find ourselves looking into the most valuable commodity in fantasy football: RBs. The Fantasy Footballers dove into the Top Tier Fantasy RBs and now the Second Tier Fantasy RBs on a recent episode comparing their fantasy finishes and their proprietory consistency metric. Make sure you check it out on YouTube to get the full effect!
If you want more great WR info, make sure you read Jeff Greenwood’s article, 25 RB stats from 2019.
The Fantasy Footballers base all scores on 0.5 PPR scoring. They consider Great games to be those that average out to a weekly top-5 score, a Good game means they fell within the top-24 on average, and a Bust game means it would miss the top-50 on average. A Great game could win you a week while a Bust game could’ve lost you a week.
They use this data to develop a Consistency Score. Consistency means less risk. You want consistent players.
Great Games are more than 22 points (top 5 on average)
Good Games are more than 10 points (top 24 on average)
Bust Games are fewer than 7 points (outside top 50 on average)
*Missed Games don’t count against consistency score
9. Leonard Fournette (221.4 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #9
15 games — 265/1152/3 — 76/522/0 on 100 targets — 1 fumble lost
Great 13% | Good 67% | Bust 0%
Defenses: +4.15 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -4.72 at Home
The guys joked about Leonard Fournette being reborn as a “scat-back” as he had the 4th most receptions and targets at the RB position. That’s more receptions than he had in 2018, 2017, and 2016 (college) COMBINED. Despite seeing the passing volume, he had a TD every 88 carries which scream positive regression for next year. The jump in targets was due to the absence of other trustable options going into the season. Moving forward the Jaguars could bring in someone else through free agency and the draft for that backfield.
10. Saquon Barkley (218.1 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #14
13 games — 217/1003/6 — 52/438/2 on 73 targets
Great 23% | Good 69% | Bust 14%
Defenses: -4.22 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +2.74 at Home
Barkley was the 1.01 in many drafts and owners had to be disappointed with where he finished. He was injured in Weeks 4-6 and that affected him going forward. For the first seven games after his injury, he averaged 17 for 53 rushing yards. However, fantasy-wise he was the RB5 from that point on. He was pacing for 90 targets (which is 30 less than the previous year) so his involvement in the passing game will be something to monitor with Daniel Jones entrenched as the starter. For Andy, he’s still locked-in for the 2nd pick behind CMC next year.
11. Chris Carson (214.1 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #17
15 games — 278/1230/7 — 37/266/2 on 47 targets — 4 fumbles lost (7 total)
Great 13% | Good 67% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -4.79 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -2.46 at Home
Carson was a beast from a film perspective but the fumbling issue definitely gave you a sick feeling in your stomach down the stretch. He started out as consistent as they get as the RB7 from Weeks 1 to 10. His workload was immense averaging 21 touches per game (the 5th most in the NFL) and he backed up the coaching staff’s insistent words about involving him in the passing game. He ran the 15th most routes among RBs. Moving forward, his draft price will be an interesting conversation as Rashaad Penny will be recovering from a major injury.
12. Alvin Kamara (208.02 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #6
14 games — 171/797/5 — 81/533/1 on 97 targets — 1 fumble lost
Great 14% | Good 86% | Bust 14%
Defenses: -0.1 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -4.79 at Home
Kamara struggled with injuries and he didn’t provide the boom games that made him so special the last two years. However, based on consistency, he was exactly what you wanted. He had the 3rd most RB receptions and from Week 10 on, he was the RB8. The problem was the lack of carries inside the 5-yard line as he had only four goal-line attempts, 37th among RBs. He might come at a slight discount in 2020 but if Drew Brees is leading this offense, he is still among the elite tier of RBs.
13. Joe Mixon (207.9 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #22
16 games — 278/1137/5 — 35/287/3 on 45 targets
Great 13% | Good 56% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -1.76 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +1.18 at Home
Andy gushed about his love for Joe Mixon as from a film perspective, he was still awesome. He had the 5th most carries and was #1 in Evaded Tackles according to PlayerProfiler. His fantasy productions was a tale of two seasons. Before his Week 9 bye, Mixon averaged8.8 fantasy pts per game and 54 total yards per game. After the bye, he averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game and 124 total yards per game. Andy sees him as a late-round 1st rounder heading into 2020 while Jason sees his ceiling as a top-10 while bringing up some valid questions about Joe Burrow as a rookie.
14. Todd Gurley (203.9 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #12
15 games — 223/857/12 — 31/207/2 on 49 targets — 2 fumbles lost
Great 7% | Good 73% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -0.13 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +1.18 at Home
Gurley was one of the more talked about players heading into the season. Remember all that Darrell Henderson hype? He’s always been unreal as a TD machine with the 3rd most red-zone touches at 3.9 per game. As Jason would say, he was the most “determinant” on his offensive line. The biggest issue was his inefficiency in terms of sheer yardage as he had ZERO 100-yard performances. Gurley’s 49 targets look ok but when you consider he ran the 4th most routes at the position and was dead last among qualifying RBs with 0.53 Yards Per Route Run, there is reason to be concerned.
15. Miles Sanders (193.7 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #29
16 games — 179/818/3 — 50/509/3 on 63 targets
Great 13% | Good 44% | Bust 31%
Defenses: -2.29 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -3.51 at Home
Sanders was the starter at the beginning of the season but was wildly unproductive averaging just 35 rushing yards per game. He was one of six rookies EVER with 800+ rush yards, 50+ rec, & 500 rec yards. He was 7th in Yards Per Touch among RBs but only had six goal-line carries which is Jordan Howard‘s domain. The pathway moving forward for Sanders
16. Kenyan Drake (189.2 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #16
14 games — 170/817/8 — 50/345/0 on 68 targets — 1 fumble lost
Great 38% | Good 63% | Bust 13%
Drake won people fantasy championships (including me in a Footballers dynasty league!) From Week 9 on, he was the RB4. As Mike’s hot stat says below, the starting RB for Arizona will be valuable in 2020.
If you add the fantasy points of Arizona Starting RB it equals 288 (.5ppr) points. That would be RB3 on the season.
Yes, a few games we were duped who the starting RB was. Point is, if there's clarity? Push your chips in.
— Mike Wright (@FFHitman) January 21, 2020
17. Le’Veon Bell (182 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #13
15 games — 245/789/3 — 66/461/1 on 78 targets — 1 fumble lost
Great 0% | Good 67% | Bust 7%
Defenses: -0.87 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +2.81 at Home
The fact Bell had zero great games only begins to show how mediocre he was for fantasy. For players with 245+ carries in a season, his 52.6 rush yards per game ranks 563rd of 565 all-time! He was tied for the most 3rd Down rushing attempts in the League and averaged just 2.6 yards per carry on those attempts. His involvement in the passing game is the only thing that semi-saved his season as he ran the 5th MOST Routes Run among RBs. Bell is likely finding a new home in 2020 but his volume is enticing to Andy as an RB2 on your roster.
18. Josh Jacobs (181.6 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #10
13 games — 242/1150/7 — 20/166/0 on 27 targets — 1 fumble lost
Great 23% | Good 69% | Bust 15%
Defenses: +3.45 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +9.29 at Home
As a rookie, Jacobs was awesome. From Weeks 1-11, he was the RB8. According to PFF, Jacobs had the most forced missed tackles on rushing attempts in the NFL despite playing only 13 games! However, according to Jason, he was “infuriating” as his lack of involvement in the passing game (49th most in routes run among RBs) made no sense as Jalen Richard continued to siphon 3rd down looks away. Jacobs has the skillset to be a passing downs guy moving forward.
19. Phillip Lindsay (180.2 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #29
16 games — 224/1011/7 — 35/196/0 on 48 targets
Great 13% | Good 44% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -1.13 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -2.45 at Home
20. Marlon Mack (174.3 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #24
14 games — 247/1091/8 — 14/82/0 on 17 targets
Great 7% | Good 50% | Bust 14%
Defenses: -8.61 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -0.33 at Home
21. Devonta Freeman (168.1 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #26
14 games — 184/656/2 — 59/410/4 on 70 targets — 2 fumbles lost
Great 14% | Good 50% | Bust 29%
Defenses: -8.56 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +2.44 at Home
22. James White (164.2 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #25
15 games — 67/263/1 — 72/645/5 on 95 targets — 1 fumble lost
Great 7% | Good 40% | Bust 13%
Defenses: +0.33 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -5.66 at Home
23. Melvin Gordon (159.8 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #19
12 games — 162/612/8 — 42/296/1 on 55! targets — 3 fumbles
Great 8% | Good 67% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -6.65 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -2.43 at Home
Gordon’s holdout was one of the main fantasy storylines heading into the season and he looked rusty when he eventually came back. From Week 7 on, he was the RB9 averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game.
24. Raheem Mostert (158.2 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #31
16 games — 137/772/8 — 14/180/2 on 22 targets — 2 fumbles lost
Great 33% | Good 78% | Bust 22%
Over the final four games, Mostert was the #1 consistent back. He’s been unreal in the playoffs but unpredictable week-to-week in terms of his usage.
Other Notable RBs
25. David Montgomery (157.9 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #38
16 games — 242/889/6 — 25/185/1 on 35 targets — 2 fumbles lost
Great 6% | Good 38% | Bust 50%
Defenses: -2.03 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -4.26 at Home
In games where he didn’t score a TD (10 games), he averaged just 5.7 fantasy points per game. Montgomery also averaged 0.77 Yards Per Route Run, a bottom of the league number.
31. Devin Singletary (133.4 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #27
12 games — 151/775/2 — 29/194/2 on 41 targets — 1 fumble lost
Great 0% | Good 50% | Bust 25%
Singletary looks like the guy in Buffalo moving forward. He never had a “great” game but there were some encouraging moments from 2019. From Weeks 7 to 16, he was the RB16. He also showed big-play ability as he was tied for 4th most 15+ Yard Runs despite being 28th in rushing attempts. Mike prefers Singletary over Miles Sanders in terms of a second-year RB2.
33. James Conner (128.5 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #20
10 games — 116/464/4 — 34/251/3 on 38 targets — 1 fumble lost
Great 30% | Good 60% | Bust 30%
Defenses: -2.7 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +6.54 at Home
The story of James Conner’s 2019 was injury. Moving forward, Andy brings up the fact the identity of this Steelers team will be different. We can’t just imbue the Roethlisberger numbers from years past with Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown on the team. If you get a full 16 games from Conner, he will be a massive value. However, that is almost impossible to bank on due to his injury history.
35. Damien Williams (126.1 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #28
11 games — 111/498/5 — 30/213/2 on 37 targets — 1 fumble lost
Great 9% | Good 45% | Bust 27%
Defenses: -0.52 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +5.05 at Home
He’s under contract one more year but the Chiefs could certainly bring in other RBs for competition after their Super Bowl run. He’s an effective pass-catcher but, as Andy added, it’s clear he’s not a between-the-tackles difference-maker.
53. Kerryon Johnson (80 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #23
8 games — 113/403/3 — 10/127/1 on 15 targets — 1 fumble lost
Great 0% | Good 63% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -8.93 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +2.56 at Home
It pained Jason to say it, but Kerryon doesn’t look like he can handle the workload to be a bell-cow RB. The Lions might bring in someone else to spell the often-injured, but talented player.