Fantasy Football: Writing Staff “My Guy” Picks for 2018
With The Fantasy Footballers Podcast recently releasing the annual “My Guy” episode, we asked our writing staff who they would “hitch” themselves to this season and go along for the ride. A “My Guy” is more than just a player who we like in a situation we agree with. This is someone you’re willing to back with the perfect combination of ability, opportunity, draft cost, and the upside to make you look like a fantasy guru at the end of the season.
Use the #MyGuy on Twitter and let us know who YOUR fantasy My Guy is this upcoming season.
Kenny Stills, WR, Miami Dolphins
Writing this before I have done the majority of my drafts this year is dangerous but I plan to own Kenny Stills in every single league in 2018. For some players, that’s an impossible task because maybe you’ll get sniped or you don’t want to take a guy too early. That will not be a problem for Kenny Stills, who’s ADP recently dropped to the 11th round! Normally, this would fill me with outrage, because the community is missing out on a proven commodity that had the most targets of any WR still left in Miami and leads the team in TDs over the last 3 seasons. But none of that matters, all that matters is that I get all of the Kenny Stills. I can draft him in the 9th, ensuring I get him everywhere, and end up with a guy whose floor is at least 20 spots ahead of his WR51 draft position. Everything you’re being told DeVante Parker could be, Stills already is…and he is 2 rounds cheaper.
–Ryan Weisse (@TheFantasyFive)
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Luck was “My Guy” the second he started throwing “baby” footballs back in March. But back then, it only took a top 15 QB ranking and some tentative faith that Luck would play again to call him “My Guy.” Now, times have changed. The Indy QB is throwing real man footballs, playing in preseason games, and sporting a dashing mustache instead of a questionable neckbeard. Meanwhile, his once-atrocious offensive line earned PFF’s 17th-best ranking for 2018, thanks to returning health across the board and the addition of potential Pro-Bowl rookie Quenton Nelson. His defense is likely one of the worst in the league, which I believe will translate to a league-high in pass attempts. His receiving weapons are largely the same as always — T.Y. Hilton, a couple solid tight ends, and a smattering of J.A.G. wideouts — but Luck should benefit from the most explosive backfield he’s ever had, including speedy, pass-catching rookie, Nyheim Hines. My concern over Luck’s health has melted away and been replaced with a fiery, unquenchable love. The former No. 2 fantasy scorer is currently my QB3 and is one of the only quarterbacks I’m willing to take before Round 9 in drafts.
–Matt Okada (@FantasySensei)
Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions
When I get stuck on a player, I don’t shut up about them. That’s the case with “My Guy” for 2018, Golden Tate. This may be the 3rd or 4th article (in addition to The Fantasy Football Black Book) I’ve mentioned him in this year and why not? He has been one of the most consistent WRs in the league for the last 4 years. You don’t have to worry about his volume because you know Matthew Stafford will target him at least 120 times as he has every year since Tate joined the Lions in 2014. Golden Tate has at least 90 receptions in each of the last 4 seasons as well. Combine his volume with his league-leading 76.7% catch rate last season and you have yourself a recipe for success. I will own a TON of Golden Tate this year as his ADP stands at a criminal 4.12 or 21st WR taken off draft boards!
–Nate Hamilton (@DomiNateFF)
Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Oh, how fickle we are in the fantasy football world! Williams has dropped a full 4 rounds in dynasty leagues as the WR42 after being injured for most of his rookie season. He has looked completely unguardable in the red zone during the preseason and should receive much of the looks Hunter Henry was due in close. But he’s more than just a box-out weapon. Williams was the 7th overall pick because he possesses a freakish size (6’4, 218) and a catch radius most pass catchers would only dream of. He’s the perfect compliment to Keenan Allen and can see close to 100 targets in Year 2. For fantasy purposes, his draft price has jumped a full 4 rounds since April and yet he’s still available at 10.06 in PPR leagues. In this high volume offense with Philip Rivers, I wouldn’t be shocked if Williams finished the year with double-digit TDs and a WR2 finish.
–Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg)
Harry How/Getty Images Sport
Jay Ajayi, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Currently going as RB19 in drafts, Jay Ajayi presents phenomenal upside in the 4th round. Just last year, Ajayi was being drafted at the end of the first/beginning of the second round of drafts. Will the former Miami Dolphin return to fantasy stardom in 2018 during his first full season in Philadelphia? Yes, yes he will. Ajayi is the clear leader in this backfield and gets to run behind Pro Football Focus’ top-ranked offensive line. Last season during seven games in Philadelphia, Ajayi averaged 5.8 YPC while averaging just 10 rushes/game. Now, I don’t think he’s THAT efficient in 2018, but he should receive a big increase in his workload this season. Additionally, Ajayi figures to be the team’s primary option inside the 20-yard line. LeGarrette Blount vacates more than 200 carries on the year and 33 carries (11th most in the league!) inside the red zone. For me, Ajayi is a top 15 back this year, and he’s not being drafted that way. Give me the lead back in one of the best offenses in football.
–Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT)
Vance McDonald, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
For this selection, I had to go back into my drafts and see who I’ve been getting more than most. I won’t select anyone in the first six rounds or so because I can’t guarantee I get them. This year’s late-round selection du jour is Vance McDonald. I’ve got McDonald everywhere. Part of it is the strategy. Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz are by far the top guys among TEs, but I’m generally scooping up the WRs that fell like Golden Tate where these guys normally get drafted. I’m not enamored with many other TEs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if McDonald finishes as a top-6 TE and he’s just dirt cheap. On the biggest of stages during the playoffs, he had 16 targets. It wasn’t that long ago that Heath Miller was a big part of the Steelers’ offense. McDonald could be huge, but he needs to get on the field. If he doesn’t…there’s always Ben Watson.
–Eric Ludwig (@FF_Gouge)
Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots
Chris Hogan is an example of a wide receiver who is has everything you want. Target volume? Check. Good offense? Check. Red zone opportunity? Check. Good QB? Double check. But yet he’s being drafted as the 24th WR right now. Why?! Last year in weeks one through eight, he was the 7th ranked WR in the league. And this was while Brandin Cooks was in the picture. Sharp Football Stats has the Patriots playing against the 6th easiest passing defenses in the 2018 season. The stars are aligning for a guy who didn’t get much of a chance in Buffalo where he started his career. His ADP at the moment puts him at the back of the 5th round. There are not many opportunities to get a top 10 receiver outside of the first few rounds. Go get him!
–Kent Weyrauch (@KentWeyrauch)
Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings
With annual PPR finishes of the WR30 (2016) and WR19 (2017) under his belt over the past two years, Stefon Diggs is on the verge of entering elite territory among wide receivers in fantasy football. At only 24 years old, Diggs has yet to showcase his ceiling as an asset for the Minnesota Vikings. To date, the Maryland product has failed to appear in more than 14 regular season contests or eclipse 111 targets in a calendar year. Even so, Diggs has showcased enough upside to warrant a five-year, $72 million extension as a former fifth-round pick. I value him as a WR2 entering 2018, and it would not surprise me if Stefon finished as a WR1 in all scoring formats in his fourth NFL season. Adam Thielen is a legitimate volume threat, but the presence of Kirk Cousins offsets workload concerns for Diggs. Overall, I expect Diggs to surpass 1,000 yards receiving for the first time in his career this season and cement himself as an elite fantasy commodity in the process.
–Cory Evans (@CoryEvansNFL)
Getty Images Sport / Don Juan Moore
Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers
An ankle sprain in Week 2 of Preseason almost derailed this pick, but Jamaal Williams should still open the season as the starting RB for the Packers. He’s being drafted in the 7th Round as the RB38. Everyone seems to agree that fellow Packers RB Aaron Jones is a more talented runner and that he and Ty Montgomery are both better pass catchers. I won’t argue that, but Williams has strengths of his own, including not being suspended for the first two games (Aaron Jones). He’s a grinder that can move piles and is elite in pass protection. The upside is huge when you consider Eddie Lacy was the RB7 in 2013 & RB6 in 2014, with 20 total rushing TDs. If Eddie Lacy can do it, Jamaal Williams can. Oh, did I mention he was the RB9 from Weeks 10-17 last year? Aaron Rodgers played in only one of those games.
–Brooks Carmean (@brookscarmean)
Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
My guy was the top WR selected in the 2017 NFL Draft, Corey Davis. Davis is primed for a huge breakout season. He was robbed of his rookie campaign as hamstring injuries limited his training camp/preseason preparation and caused him to miss 5 regular season games. Even with the limited experience, the Titans leaned on Davis heavily, targeting him 10 times in his first NFL game and giving him 15 more targets in the postseason. The best part about Davis is his ADP. Currently, being selected as the WR27 in the 6th round, there is no way Davis underperforms that position. Over the last 3 seasons, the WR27 has averaged 62 receptions for 926 yards with just under 6 TDs. Davis will absolutely smash these numbers with offensive-minded OC, Matt LaFleur, calling the shots.
–Keaton Denlay (@keatondenlay)
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns
Rookie TEs take time to adjust to the NFL. After an overly hyped rookie season, many owners may have felt burned in 2017 and appear to be down on the 6’4″, 246lb sophomore. Currently ranked outside the top 10 in most major rankings, Njoku provides #1 overall upside in 2018. Last year he scored 4 TDs on just 32 receptions. In Week 1 of the pre-season, he scored TDs on both of his receptions, one from each of Cleveland’s top two QBs, Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield. Additionally, head coach Hue Jackson has a history of using an athletic TE, and projected starting QB Tyrod Taylor often targeted his TEs during his tenure in Buffalo. Njoku is an athletic TE with all the attributes we look for in a breakout player. Add on the fact that his best comparable player on Player Profiler is Travis Kelce, and you can see why I will have David Njoku on as many of my teams as possible in 2018!
–Michael Wenrich (@mpw270)