Fantasy Football: The TRUTH About WRs in 2018, Part 2
It’s always good to take a minute after a season and write down some of the players you like/dislike going into the next year before memories fade. Part of that is looking at each of the position groups and assessing their performance from the previous year. The Fantasy Footballers take a deep dive into the TRUTH behind fantasy football finishes from the previous season. Which players won people leagues, who were consistent on a week to week basis, who were Boom-or-Bust, and more. This is a summary of The Truth About WRs in 2018 Part 2.
The TRUTH Scoring
Player finish, fantasy points, and consistency percentages are based on Half PPR scoring.
Great Games are more than 22 points (top 5 on average)
Good Games are more than 10 points (top 24 on average)
Bust Games are fewer than 7 points (outside top 50 on average)
Below are the Top 11-20 WRs for 2018. For the rest of the pack, see Part 1.
11. Stefon Diggs (215.3 points) – Consistency Rank: 14th
15 games — 102/1021/9 on 149 targets, 10/62/0 rushing
Great 20% | Good 60% | Bust 20%
Defenses: -2.72 against Top 16
Home/Road Split: -1.93 pts at Home
Diggs finished as a WR1, but he barely missed Busting on two games. He was helped by 4 TDs caught inside the 5-yard line.
12. Keenan Allen (211.6 points) – Consistency Rank: Tied-12th
16 games — 97/1196/6 on 136 targets, 9/75/0 rushing
Great 13% | Good 56% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -3.38 against Top 16
Home/Road Split: .46 more pts at Home
Allen started off slow-real slow but turned it on leading up to fantasy playoffs. He was the WR2 from Weeks 9-14 behind only Amari Cooper. Overall WR12 is a great season, but a little concerning since Philip Rivers had a career year and Hunter Henry was lost for the season which should have turned into a huge year for him.
13. Brandin Cooks (203.2 points) – Consistency Rank: 19th
16 games — 80/1204/5 on 117 targets, 10/68/1 rushing
Great 25% | Good 50% | Bust 19%
Defenses: +.46 against Top 16
Home/Road Split: 5.79 more pts at Home
14. T.Y. Hilton (201.0 points) – Consistency Rank: 10th
14 games — 76/1270/6 on 120 targets
Great 14% | Good 57% | Bust 7%
Defenses: -.74 against Top 16
Home/Road Split: 4.0 more pts at Home
Hilton silently had the best catch rate (63.3%) and yards per game (90.7) of his career. Being in WR1/WR2 is impressive considering the games he missed and the injuries he played through. He may be a nice value in drafts next year.
15. Tyler Lockett (193.9 points) – Consistency Rank: 21st
16 games — 57/965/10 on 71 targets
Great 0% | Good 50% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -.93 against Top 16
Home/Road Split: -.8 pts at Home
Russell Wilson had a perfect passer rating (158.3) when targeting Lockett according the NFL Next Gen Stats. The previous target high among receivers whose quarterbacks had perfect ratings was 15. The big question going into next will be volume. The efficiency of Lockett’s season was unsustainably high so will there be a bump in volume to offset a drop in efficiency.
16. Odell Beckham Jr. (191.84 points) – Consistency Rank: 6th
12 games — 77/1052/6 on 124 targets, 5/19/0 rushing, 2/2 106/2 passing
Great 25% | Good 67% | Bust 0%
Defenses: -5.5 against Top 16
Home/Road Split: -3.77 pts at Home
OBJ still put up a 1,000-yard season while missing four games. Obviously, 12 games is a small sample, but he had an elite consistency rank.
17. Tyler Boyd (183.1 points) – Consistency Rank: 22nd
14 games — 76/1028/7 on 108 targets
Great 21% | Good 50% | Bust 29%
Defenses: +2.55 against Top 16
Home/Road Split: 4.72 more pts at Home
18. Amari Cooper (177.9 points) – Consistency Rank: 37th
15 games — 75/1005/7 on 107 targets (6 games 22/280/1 on 31 targets in OAK, 9 games 53/725/6 on 76 targets in DAL)
Great 20% | Good 33% | Bust 53%
Defenses: +4.5 against Top 16
Home/Road Split: 9.8 more pts at Home
Cooper’s fantasy value took off after being traded to Dallas. He scored 88.2 fantasy points from Weeks 12-14, which was more fantasy points than his first 9 games of the season combined. He comes with a lot of risks. His bad games are really really bad.
Landry averaged 11.75 targets from Weeks 1-8, but his targets dropped to an average of 6.9 targets from Weeks 9-17 without a single game over 10 targets. His 81 receptions were a career low.
20. Calvin Ridley (174.8 points) – Consistency Rank: 39th
16 games — 64/821/10 on 93 targets, 6/27/0 rushing
Great 6% | Good 38% | Bust 56%
Defenses: -11.09 against Top 16
Home/Road Split: -12.85 pts at Home
Ridley’s 10 TDs set an Atlanta record for TDs by a rookie. He’s going to be a polarizing figure heading into next year.
40. A.J. Green (126.4 points) – Consistency Rank: 7th
9 games — 46/694/6 on 77 targets
Great 11% | Good 78% | Bust 11%
Defenses: +6.99 against Top 16
Home/Road Split: -.2 pts at Home
Green’s consistency rank is just one spot behind OBJ. Green has had two of his last three seasons cut short by injuries, but he was still producing at an elite level. If you extrapolate his fantasy numbers to a full season, he would have edged out Robert Woods as the WR10. He may be a screaming value in drafts next year.