Fantasy Football Target Practice: The 2020 Seattle Seahawks
To this point, I’ve written up the target practice report for the Steelers and the Eagles. The next installment in the Target Practice series is the Seattle Seahawks. In recent years, this offense has been extremely run heavy especially with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. But, Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, and Carlos Hyde are all coming off 2019 injuries. Could we see Russell Wilson be unleashed in 2020? I wrote up my thoughts on how Russell Wilson could potentially finish as the QB1 in fantasy football a few weeks back. This only happens if everything goes right for the passing game, so let’s take a look at the range of outcomes for the target distribution in Seattle.
The Seahawks only have 78 vacated targets from their 2019 roster (16% of targets), and there aren’t a lot of changes to the pass catchers on this team, so the target share distribution should be relatively straight forward to project if using last year’s data. The team signed veteran Greg Olsen and brought in veteran depth WR Phillip Dorsett to aid the WR group. However, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf should dominate a relatively concentrated target distribution in which the WR position saw 62% of the targets, tied for 11th most in the NFL.
Tyler Lockett – Floor: 85 / Ceiling: 120
Last season, Tyler Lockett saw career highs in targets, reception, and yards while replacing Doug Baldwin as Russell Wilson’s full-time slot receiver. Lockett is continuing to be an ascending player as he enters his age 28 season, and he’s likely to continue to remain Wilson’s #1 target, at least for 2020. D.K. Metcalf might have to wait until 2021 to overtake Lockett especially when he and Russ can do this 😱
Tyler Lockett in 2019
☑️Led NFL in TD from the slot
☑️2nd in NFL in red zone targets
🧠Absolute mind meld connection with Russ
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) July 19, 2020
D.K. Metcalf – Floor: 80 / Ceiling: 130
D.K. Metcalf came out in his rookie season and proved the doubters wrong, posting an impressive 58 receptions for 900 yards on 100 targets in 2019. His ceiling is probably higher than Lockett’s especially when you consider that late in the year, Metcalf started to take a big step forward, gaining trust from the coaching staff and his QB. Early in the year, he was running go routes and skinny posts, while late in the year, he was running a more comprehensive route tree and becoming a focal point of the offense. If this trend continues, he could become the target leader in Seattle.
Greg Olsen – Floor: 40 / Ceiling: 90
Russell Wilson has always targeted his TE. Whether it was Jimmy Graham, Luke Willson, Will Dissly (who we’ll get to in a second), or Jacob Hollister, the TE is typically a focal point of the passing attack. Greg Olsen, now 35 years old, signed a one-year $7 million deal to play with Russell Wilson, but at this stage of his career, Olsen might be a rotational player, which his why his target floor is so low.
Will Dissly – Floor: 25 / Ceiling: 70
Will Dissly a.k.a. Big Montana on the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, has shown flashes of being a great, young athletic TE, but there’s one big issue with Dissly. Entering his third year, he’s only played in 10 games because of two major injuries – a torn Achilles and a ruptured patellar tendon, two of the most difficult injuries from which to come back. Dissly may be eased back into the offense with Olsen playing the 1A at the TE position, and his floor reflects a potential slow return from injury. If you’re looking for more details on Dissly’s injury history, be sure to check out my injury report in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
Chris Carson – Floor: 40 / Ceiling: 65
The talk all last offseason was about how the coaching staff wanted to get Chris Carson about 50 receptions…they came close after he caught 47 last year in 15 games. Carson is likely to lead this RB group in receptions, especially with Rashaad Penny likely to start the year on PUP recovering from ACL surgery.
Carlos Hyde & Rashaad Penny – Floor: 20 / Ceiling: 45
These two players probably have a similar floor and ceiling. Hyde is firmly entrenched as the RB2 on the depth chart behind Carson, but when Penny eventually comes back from his injury, the two are likely to split time as the change of pace back to Chris Carson. As a result, it’s difficult to discuss each player in isolation. So long as Carson is healthy, these other RBs are likely to remain role players in the passing game.