Fantasy Football Lottery Tickets: QBs

Earlier this offseason, I wrote an article about how to identify a “Late Round Lottery Ticket” in your fantasy drafts. While I gave some characteristics and a few potential candidates, I didn’t give you a real list. Starting today, that changes. This month, I will give you the best lottery tickets in fantasy football for 2020, position by position, starting with the QBs.

Just a quick summary of what I will be looking for:

1. To start, the guy has to be available in the 13th Round or later (Based on a 12-team league, so an overall ADP of 145 or higher). These are truly guys that you are taking a flyer on at the end of your draft.
2. There has to be a reason to believe they can outplay their ADP. Every late-round guy isn’t a lottery ticket. These players, or their coaches, have proven their fantasy success in the past. Sometimes, it may even the addition, or subtraction, of another player or coach that is going to elevate the games of those around them.
3. They need to be in a position to prove themselves right away. If you cut them before they perform, it doesn’t matter that you were right about them.

The depth of the QB in fantasy football will make this, by far, the easiest position to find some fantasy gold. It may even change your entire draft strategy, knowing what you can land for free at the end of your draft.

Check out the latest Fantasy Footballers podcast (QB Rankings Part Two) where a few late-round options are discussed.

Jared Goff- Current ADP: QB19, Pick 146

The first choice for this list may have been the easiest. Goff is being ignored in drafts right, being drafted six spots behind where he finished in 2019. While that QB13 finish may not have inspired confidence, drafters are completely discounting what he did in 2018. Just two seasons ago, Goff was the QB7 in fantasy football, finishing with almost 3,700 yards and 32 passing TDs. In 2019, he actually threw the ball more but ended with 50 fewer yards and ten fewer TDs. The Rams let Todd Gurley walk, which could mean more passing, and more opportunity for Jared Goff to reward your fantasy team. He still has Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp at WR, and two TEs, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett, that proved themselves more than capable last season. If each of those guys scored six TDs, he would already beat last year’s total. The tight ends should be able to make up for the loss of Brandin Cooks, who only scored two TDs last year, but five during Goff’s 2018 campaign. Even Josh Reynolds scored five TDs in 2018, and he will be the new WR3 replacing Cooks. All the pieces for a return to 2018’s TD total are in place and Goff is a proven QB1 that you can land in the 13th Round right now.

Gardner Minshew II– Current ADP: QB22, Pick 157

Last season, Minshew-mania took the NFL by storm but that has not changed his 2020 fantasy draft stock at all. While everyone sings his praises, nobody is drafting him. Despite playing in just 14 games, Minshew finished as the QB19 last season, totaling 3271 yards and 21 TDs. Notably, he was also 5th among league QBs in rushing yards, and that can make all the difference for a QB looking to make a leap. The fantasy world loves D.J. Chark Jr., routinely names Laviska Shenault Jr. as a rookie-to-watch, and marks Dede Westbrook as a post-hype sleeper. We love the weapons, but not the QB? The addition of new OC Jay Gruden should bring some hope as well. Gruden was the coach that helped realize Kirk Cousins‘ QB1 potential while in Washington. From 2015-2017, Cousins was the QB6, on average, in fantasy football. Minshew isn’t quite the QB that Cousins is (yet) but his ability to run the ball could more than compensate for it. If Jay Gruden helps make him a better passer and he continues to be a top-5 rushing QB, there is no reason Gardner Minshew can’t be a QB1 in 2020.

Derek Carr– Current ADP: QB28, Pick 213

In the simplest of terms, Carr was way better than he is given credit for in 2019 and everyone hates him. He finished the season with over 4000 yards and a 70% completion rate. The 4,000 yards ranked 8th in the league and was his 2nd straight season eclipsing the 4k mark. The 70% completions on 513 attempts was the best in football for anyone over 400 attempts. He finished the year as the QB16 because, like Jared Goff, TDs killed him. Carr only threw 21 TDs passes and that ranked 19th in the league. While he hasn’t shown it recently, back in 2015 and 2016, Carr averaged 30 TDs passes over two seasons. While his WRs were better back then (Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree), the addition of Henry Ruggs III is going to be huge for this offense. While the rookie may not splash right away, he is going to command attention from opposing defenses and that will make life easier for others. They also drafted Bryan Edwards, who is getting rave reviews in camp, and still have Hunter Renfrow, who led Raiders WRs in receptions last year, Tyrell Williams, and Darren Waller. Waller specifically is due for some positive regression, after hitting 1100 receiving yards but only three TDs. The Raiders WRs only scored ten TDs last year, you have to believe that number climbs in 2020, and that, along with the Waller improvement, should be the boost Carr needs to hit the QB1 ranks.