Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 9
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
Managing a dynasty team requires year long engagement and commitment. By far, the toughest aspect of dynasty football is balancing the present and the future. It is not an easy task, but the Fantasy Footballers team is here to help guide you through that process!
We are now halfway through the season, and the dynasty landscape continues to change as depth charts are adjusted and injuries occur. If you are new to this series, each week I will provide you with the following:
- Dynasty Tip of the Week
- Dynasty Stock Report
- Bonus Segment (an intriguing statistic, college prospect evaluation, or a dynasty stash)
Let’s dive in!
Dynasty Tip of The Week
Dynasty Trading – What Are Trade Calculators?
If you are an avid and passionate dynasty trader, you are likely familiar with the numerous trade calculators available to the dynasty community. This tool can be helpful in assessing dynasty values depending on the settings of your league. Each player and pick is assigned a numerical value, which is likely determined by a combination of historical production, age, average draft position (ADP), or rankings.
While trade calculators are very convenient, I would caution using them as the tiebreaker in your trade negotiations. Instead, use them as a guide to determine if a trade offer is headed in the right direction. Keep in mind that a player or draft pick’s value will vary by fantasy manager, so it is impossible for a trade calculator to fully determine if an offer is fair for both parties.
However, you can use trade calculators to your advantage. Oftentimes, it can be beneficial to know if a dynasty manager uses a specific tool to evaluate trades. If they use a trade calculator, my first step is to assess their roster based on that tool. Are there players that I view highly but the calculator does not? Is there a player I could trade high based on the calculator’s values? This could be an excellent way to capitalize on the fluctuating dynasty landscape that changes each week!
In short, dynasty trade calculators are a helpful tool that you can use in your trade negotiations. While I would not use them to determine if you should or should not execute a trade, they can still provide direction as you communicate with your fellow dynasty managers. But do not be afraid to disagree with the tool! In the end, do what you believe is best for your dynasty roster, regardless of the values in the calculator. With that, this concludes our four-week series of dynasty trading. Hopefully this segment was helpful as you build towards a dynasty championship!
Dynasty Stock Report
D.K. Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks, WR
In Monday’s episode of the show, Andy, Mike, and Jason discussed D.K. Metcalf’s rising dynasty outlook. Is he now a top 5 dynasty WR? Absolutely! Is he THE dynasty WR1? He has definitely entered that conversation.
Since being drafted in 2019, he has been one of the most productive receivers over the last three decades. Among WRs in their first 23 games (since 1992), where does Metcalf rank?
- 14th in Total PPR Points (331)
- 11th in Yards Per Target (9.94)
- T-5th in Receiving TDs (14)
- 13th in Receiving Yards (1580)
What is even more impressive is that he achieved those numbers despite ranking 47th in targets (159) and 38th in receptions (94), per PFR. As for this season, he has taken a significant leap, pacing as the WR3 in PPR points per game (20.9) and WR9 in weighted opportunity rating (0.63). And with Russell Wilson locked in as his QB for the next 3 seasons, Metcalf’s fantasy upside is truly… *cue the Russell Wilson drop* unlimited!
Odell Beckham Jr. – Cleveland Browns, WR
Last week, we found out that Odell Beckham Jr. will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. After what started out as a very promising career, we have seen OBJ play in just 39 games over the last 4 seasons (60.9%). In addition to his injury concerns, we have seen a dip in fantasy production over that same timespan. In his first three years in the league, Beckham Jr. was the WR2 in PPR points per game (21.2), only behind Antonio Brown. But since 2017, OBJ’s production has dipped to 15.2 PPR points per game, which is 13th among all WRs. Furthermore, since joining the Cleveland Browns, OBJ has only produced WR3 numbers, averaging 12.5 PPR points per game (WR35).
So where do fantasy managers go from here? With an influx of young WR talent entering the league in 2021, I expect OBJ’s dynasty value to take a significant hit. This will likely mean that fantasy managers will have to hold on to him during the off-season. There is always the possibility that OBJ finds himself in a more favorable situation if the Browns do decide to trade him next year (per Ian Rapaport). For now, OBJ fantasy managers will need to be patient as his ADP will continue to decline heading into the off-season.
Travis Fulgham – Philadelphia Eagles, WR
Heading into 2020, there was a lot of optimism that a young receiver would emerge from this Eagles WR corps. Many assumed rookie Jalen Reagor or JJ Arcega-Whiteside would take the leap as the team’s WR1.
Enter Travis Fulgham, second-year player out of Old Dominion.
Travis Fulgham end zone TD ♨️
Eagles retake the lead
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 2, 2020
While his rookie year with Detroit was relatively uneventful, Fulgham has taken full advantage of his opportunity with the Eagles. With DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and Reagor missing time due to injury, Fulgham was promoted from the Eagles practice squad and never looked back. Since being activated in week 4, Fulgham is the WR13 in weighted opportunity rating (0.61), accounting for 26% of the team’s total targets and 31% of their air yards. He is averaging 19.2 PPR points per game, which ranks 6th among WRs.
By far the most encouraging development is that Fulgham still led the Eagles in targets and receiving yards in week 8, despite the return of Reagor. Expect Fulgham to remain productive as the Eagles continue to throw at a high rate, further boosting his dynasty value heading into 2021.
Ronald Jones II – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, RB
Similar to a bell curve, Ronald Jones’ dynasty value was steadily improving over the first 5 weeks, culminating to an impressive performance against a porous Green Bay run defense. However, since Fournette returned in week 7, there has been a significant decline both in opportunity share and fantasy points for the 3rd year RB. Over the first 6 weeks, Ronald Jones accounted for nearly 63% of the team’s rushing attempts and 33% of the team’s total opportunities. During that timespan, he was the RB20, averaging 15.1 PPR points per game.
Once Fournette returned from injury, however, we saw Jones’ production decline to 10.6 points per game, while only accounting for 20% of the team’s opportunities. For reference, Fournette has accounted for 30% of the team’s rush attempts and targets since his return. While there was some optimism regarding Jones’ dynasty value, it is clear that Bruce Arians does not trust him in that 3-down role. So as long as Arians is coaching this team, we may be looking at a TD-dependent RB in Ronald Jones, whose upside will continue to be capped due to the lack of involvement in the passing game.
Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears, WR
Darnell Mooney has been a surprising development for this Chicago Bears team that needed a playmaker to emerge behind Allen Robinson. Mooney, a 5th round pick out of Tulane, has been 2nd on the team in targets per game (5.4), receiving yards per game (38.1), and weighted opportunity rating (0.31). And this past week against the Saints, the speedy receiver finished with 6 targets, turning that into five receptions, 69 yards, and a touchdown.
Darnell Mooney 💨 pic.twitter.com/1oZSpHQ9a6
— Football Is Life (@FootbaIl_Tweets) November 3, 2020
What has been most impressive about Mooney is his ability to separate, as you can see in the clip above. He is a savvy route runner that knows how to win at the line of scrimmage and down the field. And while he and Nick Foles have not always connected with the deep ball, his ability to get open has resulted in more opportunity. In fact, over the last two weeks, his snap rate has steadily increased to 81% (vs the Rams) and 93% (vs the Saints). If you stashed Mooney, that is certainly paying off as he could be a key piece in this Bears passing attack going forward.
Bonus: Dynasty Stash of the Week
Quintez Cephus – Detroit Lions, WR
Quintez Cephus, rookie out of Wisconsin, is a name you are likely familiar with from the first two weeks of the season. In his final year as a Badger, we saw him produce 901 receiving yards and 7 receiving touchdowns on 59 receptions, accounting for 23.6% of the team’s targets. And while he lacks the top-end speed that a Henry Ruggs might have, he excels with his route running and versatility.
In the absence of Kenny Golladay, we saw him receive a total of 13 targets in two games, which he turned into 6 receptions and 97 yards. Those numbers are not overly impressive, but it was intriguing to see him account for 18% of the targets and a team-leading 24% air yard share (151) over the first two weeks of the season. He averaged 73.7% of the offensive snaps to start the year, though he has struggled to find playing time ever since Golladay returned in week 3.
So why should you stash a player who has not seen the field since Week 4? For one, Golladay will likely miss week 9 due to a hip injury. Per our injury analyst Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT), the recovery time could range from 1 to 3 weeks. But looking beyond that, all three of Detroit’s starting WRs are set to become free agents after 2020. And with limited cap space, it is unlikely that Detroit decides to bring them all back. That leaves Cephus with a potentially sizable role heading into 2021. So go check your waivers and hold onto Cephus as his dynasty value may increase come next off-season.