Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 7
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
Six weeks into the season, hopefully all of your dynasty teams are still in the running for a playoff spot. If you are currently 1-5 or even 0-6, continue to stay engaged! The best part of dynasty football is that while your season might not lead to a playoff run, you can still make trades and waiver wire acquisitions to set yourself up for success in the coming years.
If you are new to this series, each week I will provide you with the following:
- Dynasty Tip of the Week
- Dynasty Stock Report
- Bonus Segment (an intriguing statistic, college prospect evaluation, or a dynasty stash)
Let’s dive in!
Dynasty Tip of The Week
Dynasty Trading – Communication is Key
In this week’s dynasty report, I will focus on the following: communication, building relationships, and how it relates to trading. Earlier this week, I ran a Twitter poll asking dynasty players whether communication is essential to dynasty trading. Out of 379 votes, 90% of dynasty players agreed that communication is crucial.
How important is communication for dynasty trading?
Does it increase the chances of completing a trade when both parties are willing to communicate?
Comment & vote below!@MyFantasyLeague
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) October 19, 2020
For one, communicating with your leaguemates can give you a clearer insight on how each manager values their roster. For example, if you are trying to trade Stefon Diggs for D.J. Moore, you might assume that this trade heavily favors Moore. It is, however, entirely possible that the other dynasty manager views Diggs as the more valuable receiver. The only way to find out is by approaching your trade partner and initiating a discussion.
Secondly, communicating with your leaguemates can also be a time-saver. Instead of sending counter-offers back and forth, it might be more efficient to simply start a conversation to better understand their team’s needs. In doing so, you can construct a trade that would ideally improve both rosters.
Lastly and most importantly, communication allows you to develop relationships with other fantasy managers. As with anything in life, building relationships is extremely important. Not only does it help with dynasty trading, but it also creates comradery that fosters an enjoyable dynasty football experience. Stay engaged, be approachable, and develop relationships with other fantasy managers as you build your dynasty rosters.
Dynasty Stock Report
Stock Up: D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions, RB
Another rookie Running Back has emerged! D’Andre Swift, who has been in a timeshare with Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johson, just had the best game of his career versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. He received a season-high 17 touches, while compiling 116 rushing yards, 7 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. He would finish the week as the RB3 in PPR leagues, despite only playing on 38% of the offensive snaps.
14 carries, 116 yards and 2 touchdowns for UGA great D’Andre Swift pic.twitter.com/C7o1tPhKUd
— UGA Football Live (@UGAfootballLive) October 18, 2020
What has been most impressive about Swift is his efficiency, ranking as the RB10 in Fantasy Points Over Expected per Game (+2.64, per Rotoviz). For comparison, Peterson ranks RB45 in that same metric, while Johnson is the RB120. It is very evident that Swift is the best RB in this backfield and should receive the majority of the touches going forward. Unfortunately, Matt Patricia continues to utilize an RB committee, which may cap Swift’s upside. I truly believe, however, that the cream rises to the top and that Swift will be the leader of this backfield by the end of the season. And based on his week 6 performance, if he ever receives a consistent 15+ touches per game, we could be looking at an RB2 with weekly RB1 upside.
Stock Down: T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts, WR
T.Y. Hilton is coming off of an injury-riddled 2019 season, catching passes from the likes of Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer. With below-average QB play and injuries slowing him down, Hilton finished as the WR35 in PPR points per game while averaging career lows in receiving yards per game (50.1) and air yards per target (10.1). Six weeks into the 2020 season, Hilton is having another forgettable year. He is currently the WR27 in targets, but only the WR80 in PPR points per game.
Hilton’s days as a dominant fantasy WR are likely behind him, which means he will be nothing more than a bye week fill-in for your dynasty rosters. And despite having the 2nd easiest WR schedule for the rest of the season, his upside will continue to be capped by the Colts’ run-heavy offense. In addition, Michael Pittman Jr. could return later this season, which will further reduce Hilton’s opportunity for fantasy production. For dynasty purposes, Hilton will likely rank outside of the top 50 WRs going forward, especially with another talented WR class entering the league in 2021.
Stock Up: Chase Claypool – Pittsburgh Steelers, WR
Chase Claypool, rookie out of Notre Dame, was almost included in last week’s dynasty report after his 4 touchdown performance against Philadelphia. I hesitated because I wanted to see him out-produce Juju Smith-Schuster for a second consecutive week. Fast forward to week 6, Mapletron would continue his dominant performance, finishing as the WR13 with 81 total yards, 4 receptions, and 1 touchdown. Over the last two weeks, Claypool has been extremely productive for fantasy, ranking as the WR13 in opportunity share (16%) and the WR2 in PPR points per game (30.3).
Chase Claypool just keeps scoring! 🔥
— ESPN (@espn) October 18, 2020
The most encouraging part about his emergence is his involvement in several facets of the offense. Not only is he being targeted on the short and intermediate routes, he is frequently used as a deep threat and as a rusher, especially around the goal line. In addition, he is currently the WR1 in Fantasy Points over Expected per game (+7.74, per Rotoviz), proving just how efficient he can be when he receives the opportunity. So even when Diontae Johnson returns, I expect the Steelers to manufacture touches for Claypool to keep him involved. And from a dynasty perspective, he could be contending for that WR1 role in this offense if Juju is not re-signed this coming off-season.
Stock Down: Mark Ingram – Baltimore Ravens, RB
Mark Ingram is not the same player he was last year when he finished as the RB10 in PPR points per game. What fueled his outstanding 2019 fantasy season was the efficiency of the Ravens offense, propelling Ingram to finish as the RB4 in total touchdowns (15) and RB4 in Fantasy Points over Expected (62.2, per Rotoviz). For reference, in 2019, the Ravens were ranked 2nd in total yards (407.6) per game and 1st in rushing yards (206.0) per game. Six weeks into the 2020 season, we have seen those numbers decline by 16.0% and 20.6%, respectively.
Unfortunately, the decline in overall efficiency has affected Mark Ingram quite a bit. Not only is his touchdown upside severely lower, his total opportunities (attempts and targets) per game has declined from 15.4 in 2019 to 9.2 this season. In addition, Ingram is now dealing with an ankle sprain, which may open the door for rookie RB J.K. Dobbins to take over the backfield. Turning 31 in December, Ingram’s dynasty value is unfortunately on the decline, which will force dynasty managers to hold as he is likely now untradeable.
Stock Down: Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles, TE
Over the last 3 games, Zach Ertz has compiled a grand total of 48 receiving yards on 9 receptions. In 2019 alone, he exceeded that yardage total in 11 games. And despite Dallas Goedert missing time due to an ankle fracture, Ertz has not taken advantage of the increase in opportunity. To put his inefficiency into perspective, Ertz is currently the TE3 in total targets and the TE4 in expected fantasy points. But per Rotoviz, he is averaging 4 fantasy points below expected per game, which ranks 115th among all TEs.
Heading into week 7, Ertz will be unavailable due to a high ankle sprain, which is expected to sideline him for several weeks. Add in the fact that this Eagles offense has been extremely disappointing, it is not surprising to see Ertz’s dynasty value trending down. Especially with other young TEs such as Noah Fant and Jonnu Smith quickly emerging, Ertz might no longer be a top 5 dynasty Tight End. There is also uncertainty regarding his contract situation, as he is set to become a free agent after the 2021 season. If an extension is not reached, Ertz could demand a trade, which would further affect his dynasty value.
Bonus: Dynasty Stash of the Week
Tyler Johnson – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, WR
Tyler Johnson, rookie WR out of Minnesota, was drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 5th round of the draft. In his final two years in college, he would total 2,487 receiving yards, an impressive 25 total TDs, and 164 receptions. Despite his productive college career, he was not expected to be an immediate contributor due to the plethora of talented Wide Receivers on this Buccaneers team.
TB12 connects with Tyler Johnson to extend the Bucs lead, 21-10! #GoBucs
— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2020
Injuries to Chris Godwin and Justin Watson, however, opened the door to opportunity. Against a formidable Bears defense, Johnson would receive 6 targets, turning those into 4 receptions and 61 receiving yards. While those numbers are not overly impressive, we saw some of the smooth route running, effort, and after-the-catch ability that makes Johnson so special. And this past week against Green Bay, he would make the most of his only opportunity by hauling in a TD pass from Tom Brady in the 2nd quarter.
While his immediate dynasty outlook is not very optimistic, Johnson could find himself as a starter in 2021 if Godwin is not extended this off-season. Both are considered part-time slot receivers, which makes Johnson an ideal fit for Godwin’s role in this offense. He is likely already rostered in most dynasty leagues, though be sure to check your waiver wires just in case he was dropped. Be patient with Johnson and hold onto him as his value could increase significantly starting next year.