Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 6

Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!

Managing a dynasty team requires year long engagement and commitment. By far, the toughest aspect of dynasty football is balancing the present and the future. It is not an easy task, but the Fantasy Footballers team is here to help guide you through that process!

We are now through 5 weeks of the season, and the dynasty landscape continues to change as depth charts are adjusted and injuries occur.

If you are new to this series, each week I will provide you with the following:

• Dynasty Tip of the Week
• Dynasty Stock Report
• Bonus Segment (an intriguing statistic, college prospect evaluation, or a dynasty stash)

Let’s dive in!

Dynasty Tip of The Week

Trading is one of the keys to winning and building a championship roster in dynasty football. Since waiver wires are relatively thin compared to redraft leagues, trading is one of the most effective ways to strengthen your roster. In this segment, over the next few weeks, I will be focusing on trading in the dynasty landscape.

Dynasty Trading – Each League Is Its Own Ecosystem

If you are in multiple dynasty leagues, remember that each one is unique and can be viewed as its own ecosystem. That’s because the scoring system, roster lineup, and even the league size can significantly affect dynasty values.

As an example, you might be offered Aaron Rodgers and a 2021 2nd round rookie pick in exchange for George Kittle. If this were a standard 1TE/1QB league with 12 teams, Kittle’s value as a top TE far outweighs that of a top 12 QB. However, if this were offered in a SuperFlex league, the trade is much more equitable for both parties. The scoring format can also alter a player’s value. For example, if a league utilizes a full point TE premium (meaning TEs gain an additional point per reception), Kittle becomes a top 15 player in that league.

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A rookie pick’s value, on the other hand, will fluctuate based on your league’s size and roster setup. The smaller the league or the deeper the lineup, the more valuable 2nd and even 3rd round picks become. Let’s use Antonio Gibson as an example. In a 1QB, 12 team league, Gibson was likely a mid 2nd round pick. In a SuperFlex league, his ADP was closer to that of a 3rd round pick, with players like Justin Herbert and Jordan Love potentially going ahead of him.

So in short, know your league and know your leaguemates, and always construct a trade that fits your league’s unique ecosystem!

Dynasty Stock Report

Stock Down: Chris Herndon – New York Jets, TE

After a very promising rookie season where he finished as the TE16 in PPR leagues, Chris Herndon’s career has been relatively disappointing since. In 2019, he would miss most of the year due to a suspension and then a season-ending rib injury. And five weeks into the 2020 season, he is only the TE39 in PPR points per game despite pacing as the TE16 in targets. 

Herndon’s inefficiency can be partially attributed to the poor QB play, though his 36th ranked true catch rate of 72.2% (on catchable targets) would indicate that he is to blame as well. Unfortunately, this offense is unlikely to improve anytime soon. As long as Adam Gase is calling the plays, Herndon’s upside will continue to be capped. Regardless, continue to roster him as there is always a possibility that come 2021, we could be looking at a much-improved offense with a new QB and coaching staff.

Stock Up: Robert Tonyan – Green Bay Packers, TE

Entering the season, many were expecting TE Jace Sternberger to take that 2nd-year leap after sitting out most of his rookie year. Five weeks into the season, we have seen a different TE lead the Packers’ offense in snaps, yards, and touchdowns – Robert Tonyan, UDFA out of Indiana State. Not only is he the TE4 in PPR points per game (15.1), but he also the TE1 in fantasy points over expected per game (+8.6, per Rotoviz). Tonyan has truly been efficient with the opportunities given to him, averaging a respectable 15% target share over the last 3 weeks.

Robert Tonyan on this play:

• Ran his route
• Got tackled
• Got up
• Caught a TD

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(via @thecheckdown)pic.twitter.com/fW1J95m1EC

— ESPN (@espn) October 6, 2020

His production, however, coincides with Davante Adams’ absence due to an ankle injury. Once he returns, Tonyan’s target share could be negatively affected. Regardless, Aaron Rodgers is currently on pace to throw for 52 touchdowns and 4,856 passing yards, which should be plenty to support several fantasy-relevant receivers. While Tonyan will not always score 3 TDs like he did versus Atlanta, he should still remain a fringe TE1 for the rest of the season. 

Stock Down: Dwayne Haskins – Washington Football Team, QB

Dwayne Haskins has struggled to get anything going in the first four games of the season. He averaged 234.8 passing yards on a mediocre 61% completion rate while throwing for only 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. If we take a look at some of the advanced passing metrics, Haskins ranks last among QBs in both completion percentage over expected (-6.2 percentage points) and expected points added per play (-0.166), according to RBSDM. When we take all of that into account, it is no surprise that Ron Rivera decided to bench Haskins for Kyle Allen.

When asked about the decision, Rivera said: “We’re in a situation where if we’re still trying to teach one guy and the other 52 aren’t given an opportunity to see if we can win, then that’s not fair.” This does not bode well for Haskins’ dynasty value if his own coach does not consider him a “win-now” QB. And to make things worse, he was not only demoted as the starting QB, but Haskins is also currently behind Alex Smith as the QB3 on the depth chart. So what happens now? Per recent reports, the former Ohio State QB is expected to be traded before the trade deadline, which might actually help his dynasty value. Just in case he lands in a favorable situation, continue to roster him, especially in your SuperFlex leagues. 

Stock Up: Mike Davis – Carolina Panthers, RB

When Christian McCaffrey suffered a high ankle sprain, many fantasy managers were unsure how they could ever replace a player as dominant as CMC. If you rostered his backup Mike Davis, that void was quickly filled with an RB1. In the 3 games that McCaffrey has missed, the Panthers have gone 3-0 with Davis averaging 117 scrimmage yards, 8.3 targets, and 1 touchdown per game. From a fantasy perspective, Davis has averaged about 25.03 PPR points per game, which has him ranked as the RB4 over the last 3 games. 

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Mike Davis is a bad, bad man pic.twitter.com/PtaTNPFiZx

— Panthers 24/7 (@Panthers24_7) October 11, 2020

What does this mean for the dynasty values of CMC and Davis? McCaffrey will remain the unquestioned RB1 in dynasty, and will be a must-start even if Joe Brady decides to lessen his workload in favor of Davis. As for Davis’ dynasty value, I believe he has just become one of the more valuable backups in the league, similar to Latavius Murray and Tony Pollard. As a CMC fantasy manager, Davis is a player you have to roster going forward.

Stock Down: Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys, QB

Dak Prescott was on his way to a career year, averaging 422.5 passing yards per game on an impressive 68% completion percentage. Through four weeks, he was the QB1 in points per game (36.3), which would have outpaced Lamar Jackson’s spectacular 2019 fantasy season. Unfortunately, his year will end early as he suffered a compound fracture and a dislocated ankle in the 3rd quarter of Sunday’s game versus the Giants. Thankfully, his surgery was successful; and per Yahoo Sports, the recovery time is expected to be 4 to 6 months.

From a dynasty perspective, there is some uncertainty baked into his value. Prescott is currently on the franchise tag, which means there is no guarantee that he will be a Dallas Cowboy next season. Part of his dynasty appeal is tied to this extremely talented offense that is led by Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and the 10th ranked offensive line per Football Outsiders. My hope is that Dak receives the extension that he deserves; however, there is always the possibility that he plays for a different franchise next year. As a rebuilding team, especially in a SuperFlex league, now might be the perfect time to send an offer for Dak while his value is relatively low.

Bonus: Rookie Statistical Review

About one-third of the way through the season, we have had several rookies emerge over the last couple of weeks. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor continue to steadily produce for fantasy managers, while players like Tee Higgins and CeeDee Lamb are quickly becoming reliable fantasy starters. And by far the most surprising rookie has been UDFA James Robinson – who is currently the RB8 in PPR leagues. 

If these trends continue, we could be looking back at one of the more productive rookie classes in recent history. Let’s dive into some of the statistical leaders among this rookie class.

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Data provided by PlayerProfiler