Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 3
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
As the year progresses, dynasty values will undoubtedly change as injuries occur, depth charts are adjusted, and rookies emerge. Keep in mind that managing a dynasty team will require year-long engagement, with a balanced view of both the short and long-term outlook of your team. Therefore, each week, I will be highlighting some of the dynasty risers and fallers in the form of a Dynasty Stock Report. My hope is that this article can be a go-to resource on your journey to a dynasty #FootclanTitle.
In addition to the Dynasty Stock Report, each week I will be providing an updated Rookie Opportunity Dashboard (weekly stats and metrics) along with one of the following:
- Dynasty Strategy Discussions
- 2022 Prospect Breakdowns
- Dynasty Stashes
2022 Prospect Breakdown
Isaiah Spiller – Texas A&M RB
As of right now, there are two popular RB1 candidates for the 2022 rookie class. One of them is Iowa State’s Breece Hall, as highlighted in an off-season version of my dynasty report! But for this piece, I will be focusing on Isaiah Spiller, who might be the most dynamic running back in the 2022 class. When we take a look at his film, he boasts an impressive ability to slip away from defenders and shed tackles. He can be difficult to bring down because of his adept skill set to problem solve in tight spaces using his quick feet and lateral agility. His most underrated skill, however, might be his blocking where he displayed consistent aggressiveness. In fact, he was often the initiator of contact, showcasing his determination to win on every opportunity. As a receiver, Spiller’s route tree was mainly limited to flat and wheel routes, though he still accounted for 7% of the team’s receiving yards in his first two years.
As for his production profile, Spiller broke out as a true freshman, accumulating 1,149 total yards in his first collegiate season. Along with 10 total touchdowns, Spiller averaged a 51% RB dominator rating and roughly 25% of the team’s total production in 2019. As always, I want to stress just how important it is for a prospect to contribute as an 18-year old freshman. Spiller clearly checks that box. He would follow that up averaging 20.6 touches per game with an improved 5.98 yards per touch in 2020. In totality, Spiller has accounted for about 26.5% of the team’s total production in his first two seasons, making him a clear focal point for the Aggies offense. And through three games in 2021, despite sharing the backfield with Devon Achane, Spiller is averaging a 25.1% team yards market share while leading the Aggies with 48 total touches. What stands out as well is his 10.5% receiving yards market share, which is a significant improvement from his first two seasons. If he maintains this level of production and efficiency, I would not be surprised if Spiller is the first running back selected in the 2022 draft.
Dynasty Stock Report
Heading into the 2021 season, the expectation was that Matthew Stafford would elevate the Rams offense to new heights as a clear upgrade from Jared Goff. However, the biggest question was whether Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp would emerge as the lead receiver for Sean McVay’s offense. After two weeks, we might already have our answer as Kupp currently leads the team in target share (38.2%), receiving yards market share (45.2%), and touchdown share (42.9%). Compared to the rest of the league, Kupp also ranks near the top in several receiving metrics:
- WR5 in Targets per game (10.5)
- WR3 in Receiving Yards per game (135.5)
- WR3 in Yards After The Catch per game (73)
- WR1 in PPR per game (30.3)
Of course, this is a relatively small sample size and he could eventually regress to the mean. However, his start to the season has been historic as he is one of only 20 wide receivers since 2000 to start their first two games with at least 15 receptions and 250 receiving yards. Of those 20 wide receiver seasons, 18 of them occurred prior to the 2021 season. And of those 18, 78% finished as a WR1 in PPR per game, while 100% of them finished within the top-24. Therefore, all signs point to Cooper-Kupp-A-Coffee remaining the focal point of the Rams offense and dominating for fantasy managers. And at 28 years old, Kupp’s dynasty value is on the rise, especially if Los Angeles decides to extend Stafford beyond the 2022 season.
9️⃣ receptions, 1️⃣6️⃣3️⃣ receiving yards, 2️⃣ touchdowns
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) September 22, 2021
About a year ago, James Robinson made the dynasty stock report after several strong performances to start his rookie year. He finished his 2020 campaign as the clear lead running back for an inefficient Jacksonville offense while ranking among some of the most elite rushers in several opportunity metrics. In his rookie year, Robinson was the RB7 in snap percentage (70%), RB2 in rushing share (79%), and RB4 in team opportunity share (37%). In other words, he received an unexpected volume that rivaled Christian McCaffrey’s and Dalvin Cook’s usage. Fast forward to 2021 and Robinson is no longer the centerpiece of the Jacksonville offense.
Not only are the Jaguars running the ball at a much lower rate this season – 27.6% rush rate vs 35.4% in 2020 – Robinson’s opportunity share has also declined with the addition of Carlos Hyde. In fact, through two games, he is averaging career lows in rushing share (50%) and target share (10.9%), with Marvin Jones and Hyde taking on a more prominent role than initially expected. And as for his dynasty value, Travis Etienne should be back healthy in 2022, which could further cloud the opportunity distribution in this backfield. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see if the Jaguars transition to a slightly more run-heavy approach, especially with Trevor Lawrence struggling to start off his rookie year. If that were to occur, Robinson could see added opportunities, potentially boosting his fantasy production. But until that happens, we could be looking at a running back with limited upside and a low floor for the rest of the year.
Despite only playing 20 games in his college career, Rondale Moore still had an impressive production profile entering the league. Since 2010, Moore is one of only seven wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds to average at least 100 yards per game in college while accounting for at least 30% of the team’s receiving production. Along with his 18-year old breakout age, Moore is a truly unique prospect in this 2021 class. And through two games this season, we are already seeing glimpses of his potential in this Arizona Cardinals offense.
In a limited sample size, Moore is the WR19 in PPR per game, while finishing week 2 as the WR7. What caught my eye in his second game is the Cardinals’ willingness to use him in a variety of ways. And while he was not always the first read in the offense, Moore took advantage of every opportunity, finding ways to create yards after the catch. As a result, he leads the team in target share (19.6%) and receiving yards market share (26.4%) to start the season. And while I do expect DeAndre Hopkins to establish himself as their WR1 (only 18.2% target share to start the year), Moore has proven that he should remain heavily involved going forward. Lastly, after this past week, Rondale is now one of only 8 wide receivers since 1950 – ages 21 or younger – to produce at least 10 receptions and 150 receiving yards in their first two career games. The other 7 on that list:
Rondale Moore’s deep receiving TD stands out in the box score, but these two plays were even more impressive imo.
His YAC ability. 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/7seXrpsLc8
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) September 20, 2021
One of the more questionable picks in the 2021 NFL draft was Kadarius Toney being selected ahead of players such as Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, and the aforementioned Rondale Moore. From a prospect evaluation standpoint, even when we factor in draft capital, Toney only ranked as my WR10 in my rookie rankings simply because of his underwhelming production profile. Even in his best season for the Gators, he only averaged a 23% receiving yards market share and 2.27 receiving yards per team pass attempt, which pales in comparison to some of the other prospects mentioned above. Regardless, after the NFL draft, there was still some hope that Toney would be an integral part of the Giants offense mainly due to his first-round capital.
Two games into the season and it looks like Toney’s likelihood of producing in his rookie year is slim to none. Entering week 3, he ranks last among Giants wide receivers in receiving yards (-2) and receptions (2). Furthermore, it seems that Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton have clearly established themselves as the top-3 receivers for Daniel Jones. As a result, dynasty managers will have to hope that Toney emerges later this year. If he remains this uninvolved, his dynasty value will continue to plummet along with the likelihood that he becomes a fantasy-relevant wide receiver at any point in his career.
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 2
Below you will find a summary of each rookie’s performance for the past week. Monday Night Football games may be initially excluded but will be added as data becomes available. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points is an expected fantasy value based on a player’s opportunities. The higher a player’s usage, the higher their expected value will be.
- FPOE stands for Fantasy Points Over Expected. If this value is positive, this would indicate that a player was efficient with their opportunities.
- Red-Zone Opportunities include targets and rush attempts. For quarterbacks, pass attempts are included as well.
If there are any specific metrics you would like me to include, or if a rookie was excluded, let me know on Twitter @FF_MarvinE.