Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 15
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
As the year progresses, dynasty values will continue to fluctuate as injuries occur, depth charts are adjusted, and rookies emerge. Keep in mind that managing a dynasty team will require year-long engagement, with a balanced view of your team’s short and long-term outlook. Therefore, each week I will be highlighting some of the dynasty risers and fallers in the form of a Dynasty Stock Report. My hope is that this article can be a go-to resource on your journey to a dynasty #FootclanTitle. In addition to the Dynasty Stock Report, you will also find an updated Rookie Opportunity Dashboard (market share, red-zone stats, etc.) along with either a 2022 prospect breakdown, a dynasty strategy discussion, or a player to stash for the future.
Let’s dive in!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 14
Below you will find a summary of each rookie’s performance and usage from this past week. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points is a value calculated based on a player’s usage in their offense. The more high-value opportunities they receive (deep targets, red-zone opportunities, etc.), the higher their expected value will be
- FPOE stands for Fantasy Points Over Expected and signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the difference between a player’s actual PPR points and their expected PPR value
- Red-Zone Opportunities include targets and rush attempts. For quarterbacks, pass attempts are included as well
If there are any specific metrics you would like me to include, or if a rookie was excluded, let me know on Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
A Few Rookie Observations from Week 14:
- Rookie Quarterbacks continue to underperform with Zach Wilson being the most inefficient of the group (-10.5 FPOE). Justin Fields was the only rookie QB to exceed his expected value, finishing as the QB12 in fantasy points this past week
- Brevin Jordan continues to stand out, finishing the week as the TE6 in PPR leagues. He also ranked TE3 in Expected PPR points per snap (0.31) – only behind George Kittle and Jared Cook. In other words, when he is on the field, he is heavily involved for the Texans
- Even with the return of Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams still ranked RB14 in Expected PPR points (14.9). On the other hand, Gordon led the backfield in high-value touches, receiving 7 more red-zone opportunities than Javonte
- For the second week in a row, Amon-Ra St. Brown exceeded double-digit targets and 20 expected PPR points. He ranked 7th among all wide receivers in expected value (22.37)
2022 Prospect Breakdown
Chris Olave – Ohio State, WR
Chris Olave, wide receiver out of Ohio State, was expected by many to join a very talented draft class and declare for the 2021 NFL draft. However, he surprised most of us by returning for his Senior Year, potentially risking a decline in his draft stock. As we near the end of the college football season, it is safe to say that Olave’s decision to stay for another season has actually paid off. Had he declared last year, he would have likely been selected as an early second-round pick. Nearly 12 months later, the NFL mock draft database gives him a 92.1% chance of being drafted on day one, with a consensus draft pick of 13th overall. Based on the games that I reviewed, Olave certainly has the skillset to be a first-round receiver. First off, he is an exceptional route runner who can shake almost any defender no matter where he is on the field. Athletically, Olave does not stand out as a physically imposing player – weighing in at only 6’1” and 189 lbs. He will also never strike you as the speediest player on the field. However, Olave simply knows how to get open regardless of the coverage in front of him. Whether he was tasked with beating man coverage or creating yards in the open field, his Senior Year confirmed that Olave can hang with the best of them.
From a production standpoint, Olave has a very intriguing profile for a four-year receiver. To start his career, he was not an immediate contributor on offense, totaling only 197 receiving yards in his true freshman season. However, 2019 would be his breakout campaign, averaging 65.3 receiving yards and 0.92 receiving touchdowns per game as a Sophomore. That gave him an 85th percentile breakout age of 19.2, which is exactly what we want to see from a wide receiver prospect. His Junior year was even more impressive, averaging a 34% receiving dominator rating for the Buckeyes in seven games. He would average 104.1 receiving yards and one touchdown per game while operating as Justin Fields’ lead receiver.
Because of his impressive third season, the expectation was for Olave to maintain his WR1 status. And while he has had several dominant games in 2021, Olave has occasionally taken a backseat to fellow wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Despite that, he is leading the team in receiving touchdowns with 13 – which equates to a 34.2% receiving touchdown market share in 11 games. From a yardage standpoint, however, Olave’s average actually dipped to 85.1 per game at only a 23.5% market share. Taking those numbers into account, his dominator rating in 2021 is only 28.9%, which is a noticeable dropoff from last season. Within context, these numbers should not come as a surprise as Olave played with two potential first-round receivers this year. And while the decline in his Senior year is not ideal, I do still expect him to receive first-round draft capital, which will ultimately dictate his potential to be an immediate contributor for your fantasy rosters.
Dynasty Stock Report
One of the more surprising stories for fantasy this season has been the production of Hunter Renfrow, who has quietly emerged as one of Derek Carr’s primary options in the receiving game. While he did score double-digit fantasy points in six of their first seven games, Renfrow has been even more productive since their bye week. Over their last six games, he leads the Raiders in target share (23.8%), first downs (23), and yards after the catch (226). From a fantasy perspective, he has finished within the top-12 in five of his last six games. And compared to the rest of the league, since week 9, Renfrow ranks as the:
- WR12 in Yards per Team Pass Attempt (2.08)
- WR12 in Target Share (24.8%)
- WR5 in Yards after the Catch per Game (37.7)
- WR6 in PPR per game (18.8)
To put those numbers into perspective, Renfrow has averaged more PPR points than Chris Godwin, Ja’Marr Chase, and Deebo Samuel over the last six weeks. And assuming he continues to receive top-24 volume, he should maintain his production at least through the end of the season. From a dynasty perspective, keep in mind that Renfrow will only be turning 26 by the end of this year and will still be under his rookie contract through the 2022 campaign. So while he does not carry the same upside and name value as some of the more popular dynasty wide receivers, Renfrow has clearly built a rapport with Derek Carr that gives him WR2 upside most weeks.
It has been a disappointing season for the rookie out of Clemson, who has only experienced two wins his first season in the NFL. While the coaching staff is primarily to blame for the collapse of this team, Lawrence has been far from efficient and accurate. Among 38 quarterbacks who have thrown the ball at least 100 times this season, Lawrence ranks last in touchdown rate (1.9%), 36th in quarterback rating (69.2), and 36th in adjusted net yards per attempt (4.9). In addition, if we take a look at one of my favorite metrics, Completion Percentage Over Expected (per RBSDM), Lawrence ranks near the bottom once again at 34th overall with a -7.9 CPOE. And as you can see in the chart below, the only two quarterbacks that rank behind Lawrence are Zach Wilson and Trevor Siemian.
Interestingly, despite his inefficiencies, volume has never been an issue for Lawrence. Through 14 weeks, he ranks 12th in attempts per game (35.8) and 13th in average depth of target (8.0), which should usually translate into some fantasy production. However, he is only the QB35 in points per game at 11.5, essentially making him unstartable even in SuperFlex leagues. The hope going forward is that the Jaguars front office finds a way to stabilize the team, whether that means replacing the coaching staff or simply adding talent on both ends of the field. The good news is Lawrence holds first-round draft capital, which means the Jaguars will continue to build around him. For now, his dynasty stock is on the decline as Mac Jones has overtaken him as the most productive rookie this season.
The season did not start out as planned for Brandon Aiyuk, who struggled to find consistent playing time prior to their bye week. Through week 7 he totaled only 16 targets and 96 receiving yards, which likely gave dynasty managers flashbacks to Dante Pettis’s second year, who also failed to make an impact after a productive rookie season. It also did not help that Deebo Samuel has taken on a more prominent role as the featured lead receiver for Kyle Shanahan, siphoning some of those opportunities away from Aiyuk. However, we have seen a resurgence occur before our very eyes over the last several weeks. Since week 8, Aiyuk has regained the trust of the 49ers coaching staff which has translated into added opportunities. In his last 7 games, Aiyuk ranks as the:
- WR17 in Target Share (24.7%)
- WR25 in Air Yards Share (30.1%)
- WR19 in Targets per Route (0.23 – min. 50 routes)
- WR8 in Yards per Team Pass Attempt (2.20)
- WR22 in PPR per game (13.8)
Part of his improved success is also driven by the 49ers’ offense as a whole, as they have found a balance that has allowed several skill players to be fantasy-relevant. Since week 8, in PPR per game scoring, the 49ers have produced the best fantasy TE in George Kittle, two top-24 wide receivers (Deebo Samuel and Aiyuk), and a top-8 RB in Elijah Mitchell. It has been an impressive run for the team, and Aiyuk should remain heavily involved in this offense to close out the year. Keep in mind that the 49ers have the best schedule for fantasy wide receivers, which means both Aiyuk and Deebo (who is more of a hybrid playmaker these days) could be league-winners as you pursue your dynasty championship.
Since week 8, in PPR/g scoring, the #Niners offense has produced the:
▫️TE1 in George Kittle
▫️RB8 in Elijah Mitchell
▫️QB9 in Jimmy G
▫️Two Top-24 WRs (Deebo & Aiyuk)
They also have a favorable schedule heading into the fantasy playoffs. pic.twitter.com/5F3qSkjmKW
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) December 14, 2021
O.J. Howard had a promising start to his NFL career, finishing in the top-5 in PPR per game in only his second season in the league. Since then, Howard has struggled to remain healthy as he has battled through a slew of injuries, which included an unfortunate Achilles rupture back in 2020. As a result, Rob Gronkowski has taken over the primary TE role for the Buccaneers, with Howard taking a backseat to both him and Cameron Brate. In fact, since their bye week, we have seen Howard’s snap share, targets, and receiving yards decline so significantly that he has only produced 2 PPR points in that time span. We also have to keep in mind that Howard is only a little over a year removed from suffering his Achilles tear in week 5 of 2020. Per Matthew Betz’s injury analysis in our UDK, players generally see “a 20% reduction in on-field performance in their first year after surgery.” As a result, coupled with Gronk’s resurgence, it should not come as a surprise that Howard is in the midst of the worst season of his career. The good news, however, is that he is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2022. So if he can find an opportunity on a new team willing to feature him as their lead TE, Howard could once again be (at the very least) a streamable TE starting next season.