Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 14
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
Managing a dynasty team requires year-long engagement and commitment. By far, the toughest aspect of building a dynasty roster is balancing the present and the future. And even though we are only three weeks away from the end of the fantasy season, remain engaged and continue to make moves as you strive towards that dynasty championship.
As we head into the fantasy playoffs, the dynasty landscape continues to change as depth charts are adjusted and injuries occur. If you are new to this series, each week I will provide you with the following:
- Dynasty Tip of the Week
- Dynasty Stock Report
- Bonus Segment (an intriguing statistic, college prospect evaluation, or a dynasty stash)
Let’s dive in!
Dynasty Tip of The Week
Scouting the 2021 Class
As we approach week 14, hopefully, you were able to secure a playoff spot in your dynasty league! If not, now is the time to look forward to your rookie draft and scout this upcoming 2021 class. If you are newer to evaluating prospects and film, with so many great resources available, this is the perfect opportunity to dive in and learn. Below are a few tips and tricks that I have learned from some of the best in the industry:
- While highlights are exciting to watch, it does not tell the whole story! I personally try to watch and take notes of at least 3-5 games (every snap) per prospect. This allows you to see both the highs and lows of a player. Are they consistent with their effort? Are they constantly dominating competition? What are their strengths and weaknesses?
- Beware of big plays! This might come as a surprise, but a big play reception or run can sometimes be deceiving. A 40+ yard touchdown run or reception could be a product of great play execution (OLine, QB play, etc) or even a breakdown of the defense! While it’s great to see a player take advantage of that, I try to focus on plays where the execution is not perfect. Does the player find a way to overcome that? When a play breaks down, can they still create positive yardage? The ability to produce in difficult situations, in my opinion, separates the good from the elite prospects.
- Talent and landing spot both matter! While opportunity is certainly key to a player’s success in the NFL, talent should still be weighted heavily when ranking players. A.J. Brown and D’Andre Swift are great examples of players who fell in rookie drafts because of their landing spots despite the overwhelming talent. And now, both are considered top 10 dynasty prospects at their respective positions.
- Be eager to learn! Even if you do not have a football background, you can still learn to evaluate prospects. Be eager and strive to learn from some of the best in the industry. And with social media allowing experts to be more accessible, do not hesitate to interact with them and ask questions!
And to get started, here are a few of my favorite resources:
- College Film – Dynasty Nerds Film Room: While this is a paid resource, Dynasty Nerds provides an extensive library of games (with every snap) for multiple prospects. YouTube is a free alternative, though the game selection is rather limited.
- How to Evaluate Prospects – Brett Kollman: Brett has an excellent series with Chris Harris called “Film Don’t Lie University,” breaking down what traits they look for from each position.
- Angelo Analysis: His prospect threads on Twitter are some of the best, but Angelo’s website provides so much more detail. He does an outstanding job of presenting concise and insightful information, while focusing on situational “problem solving” as a key trait for NFL players.
- Destination Devy: Ray Garvin (@RayGQue) and his team provide some of the best college football analysis in the industry. Their YouTube channel breaks down both future prospects and current NFL players.
Hopefully, this segment was helpful as you start evaluating this upcoming rookie class. As always, if you have any specific questions, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Dynasty Stock Report
Stock Up
Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers, WR
Davante Adams has been a steady rock for a Green Bay Packers offense that has dealt with some inconsistencies and coaching changes over the last 5 years. In that timespan, when healthy, he has been one of the most dominant receivers for fantasy. Since 2015, among WRs averaging at least 10 games per season, Adams ranks:
- 1st in PPR points per game (19.02)
- 4th in receiving yards per game (79.0)
- 4th in receptions per game (6.37)
- 1st in receiving touchdowns (53)
Furthermore, through 13 weeks, Adams has had an outstanding season averaging the highest PPR points per game (26.29) among receivers since 1952. And per PlayerProfiler, he also leads the league in yards per route run (3.03) and is currently the WR2 in dominator rating at 40.9%. While there is some uncertainty regarding Aaron Rodgers’ career in Green Bay, considering how dominant he has played this season, I cannot imagine Jordan Love taking the field anytime soon. As a result, Adams is entrenched as my dynasty WR1 as I fully expect him to continue to produce elite WR1 numbers for the foreseeable future.
Stock Down
Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles, QB
Carson Wentz has had a rollercoaster of a season, throwing the 6th most passing attempts through 13 weeks, while only ranking as the QB24 in fantasy points per game (19.4). Part of his unproductive season can be attributed to the plethora of injuries to the Eagles’ receivers and offensive line. In fact, the Eagles offensive line has given up a league-leading 53 sacks, while averaging a league-high 10.1% adjusted sack rate (per Football Outsiders). Wentz is partially to blame as well as he is currently the QB35 in completion percentage over expected (-4.1) per Next Gen Stats. Furthermore, PlayerProfiler has Wentz ranked outside of the top 25 in true completion (70.8%), deep-ball completion (30.4%), and adjusted yards per attempt (4.7).
This past week against Green Bay, Wentz finally had a relatively healthy receiving group with Jalen Reagor, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert all active. However, he would only produce 79 yards on a season-low 40% completion rate before being benched for Jalen Hurts. As a result, Doug Pederson has named Hurts the starting QB heading into week 14, effectively plummeting Wentz’s dynasty value. Continue to hold onto Wentz in dynasty as he could still find himself in a starting role next season, though likely for a different franchise.
Stock Up
David Montgomery – Chicago Bears, RB
In a rather mediocre rookie season for David “Mopportunity” Montgomery, he accumulated the 12th most opportunities (277) among RBs while ranking RB34 in PPR points per game. However, in his Sophomore year, Montgomery has seemingly taken a step forward as he has become one of the more efficient running backs in the league. Per PlayerProfiler, Montgomery ranks as the RB14 in yards created per touch (1.51), RB8 in total yards created (298), and RB12 in total evaded tackles (44). His spike in opportunity does correlate with pass-catching specialist Tarik Cohen’s season-ending injury as we have seen Montgomery run the 2nd most routes (285) among RBs this season. This has led to a career-high 4.6 targets per game, compared to 2.2 from his rookie year.
Shake & bake! ♨️@MontgomerDavid makes 'em miss.
📺: FOX#DETvsCHI | #DaBears pic.twitter.com/dPGSkDqANT
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) December 6, 2020
As we approach the fantasy playoffs, Montgomery is certainly heating up as he ranks as the RB1 in PPR points per game (26.2) over the last two weeks. And with the easiest RB schedule the rest of the way, I expect Montgomery to continue to produce for fantasy managers, further boosting his dynasty value. And while some project the Bears to draft a RB next Spring, I believe their need at QB and offensive line will be addressed first. As a result, Montgomery will likely remain the lead RB for Chicago for at least one more season, cementing his value as a dynasty RB2 heading into 2021.
Stock Up
Keke Coutee – Houston Texans, WR
In the Texans’ first game without Will Fuller, the expectation was that either Keke Coutee or Brandin Cooks would take on an expanded role in Fuller’s absence. Against the Colts, Coutee would lead the Texans in receiving yards (141) and air yards (114), while accounting for a team-leading 24% target share. And after a tough 2019 season where Coutee was not given much opportunity under Bill O’Brien, it seems a late breakout could be imminent for the 3rd year receiver out of Texas Tech.
With matchups against the Colts, Bengals, and Titans to close out the year, Coutee is in prime position to produce for fantasy managers. And as I mentioned in last week’s Dynasty Report, Will Fuller’s return is not guaranteed for the Texans. As a team already operating with limited cap space (8th lowest heading into 2021), it is entirely possible Fuller does not return. Therefore, if Coutee can cement his role as the WR2 for Deshaun Watson, his dynasty value should increase as we head into the 2021 off-season.
Stock Up
Darren Waller – Las Vegas Raiders, TE
Darren “The Wallerus” Waller has been one of the most dominant tight ends this season leading his position in weighted opportunity (0.58) through 13 weeks. Furthermore, he has established himself as Derek Carr’s unquestioned top target as he leads the team in target share (27.1%) and red-zone targets (18) this season. And this past week against the Jets, Waller had a truly historic performance finishing with 13 receptions, 200 receiving yards, and two receiving TDs for an impressive 45 PPR points to lead all TEs. And since 1950, there has only been one other TE that finished a game with at least 10 receptions, 200 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown: Hall of Fame TE Shannon Sharpe.
The most @NFLFantasy points by a TE since 2002?
Darren Waller, 45 points! 😱😱😱 (by @GEICO)@Raiders | #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/fLH8xvwVnZ
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2020
While Travis Kelce and George Kittle are the top names in dynasty at the moment, Waller is certainly making his case to join that elite tier of TEs. Since 2019, per PFR, Waller is the TE3 in PPR points per game (14.7), receiving yards per game (67.4), and receptions per game (5.9), trailing only Kelce and Kittle in all three metrics. Considering the consistency and upside that he provides, Waller is currently my TE3 in dynasty. And while there are certainly younger options such as T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews, I believe Waller will give dynasty managers the best opportunity to contend over the next few seasons.
Bonus: College Prospect Evaluation
Rondale Moore – Purdue Boilermakers, WR
Rondale Moore is another intriguing wide receiver headlining this loaded 2021 class. The Purdue receiver started his collegiate career on fire, posting dominant stat lines against teams like Ohio State, Boston College, and Wisconsin as an 18-year-old true freshman. He would finish his 2018 season with an impressive 26% adjusted market share, accumulating 135 touches, 1,471 scrimmage yards, and 14 touchdowns. His sophomore year, unfortunately, would be cut short due a hamstring injury. And after a long delay in 2020, Moore made his season debut against Minnesota, totaling 136 yards and one touchdown on 22 opportunities.
From a skillset standpoint, Moore lives and thrives after the catch. In fact, per PFF, his freshman season in 2018 ranked 1st in YAC (892) among all Power-Five WRs over the last 5 years. What makes him so dangerous with the ball in his hands is his vision and patience. Combine that with Moore’s elite speed and change-of-direction, and you have one of the most elusive receivers in this class. Moore is also outstanding at taking the initial contact and using that as momentum to gain additional yards. Below are a few great examples of that trait.
Purdue’s Rondale Moore is a cheat code — will likely be everyone's favorites in the 2021 NFL Draft. His YAC ability/forced missed tackle ability is the best in the class.pic.twitter.com/YCAadjszCo
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) May 12, 2020
One concern that some have with Moore is his smaller frame, measuring in at 5’9” and only 181 lbs. But regardless, Moore is an electric playmaker. And as someone who has been used in a variety of ways in this Purdue offense, his versatility and dynamic skillset should allow him to make an immediate impact at the next level.
NFL Draft Projection: Late 1st Round
Fantasy Rookie Draft Projection (1QB/1TE): Mid-to-Late 1st Round