Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 13
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
Managing a dynasty team requires year-long engagement and commitment. By far, the toughest aspect of building a dynasty championship roster is balancing the present and the future. It is not easy, but the Fantasy Footballers team is here to guide you through that process!
As we approach the fantasy playoffs, the dynasty landscape continues to change as depth charts are adjusted and injuries occur. If you are new to this series, each week I will provide you with the following:
- Dynasty Tip of the Week
- Dynasty Stock Report
- Bonus Segment (an intriguing statistic, college prospect evaluation, or a dynasty stash)
Let’s dive in!
Dynasty Tip of The Week
Keep an Eye on Contract Year Players
Per Career Trend, the average NFL career lasts approximately 3.3 years, with running backs and wide receivers averaging about 2.57 and 2.81 years in the league, respectively. With players risking their health each week, it is entirely understandable why that first contract extension is so important to a player. It signifies financial security in a league where a long career is never guaranteed.
For fantasy purposes, a new contract presents both upside and risk for that player’s dynasty value. While contract year players tend to overperform, a career year does not always lead to an extension. And even though players like Aaron Jones and Chris Godwin have been outstanding for their teams, it is entirely possible that they end up signing elsewhere in the 2021 off-season. This could have a massive impact on their dynasty value, as they will have to acclimate to an entirely new ecosystem. Melvin Gordon is an excellent example of a player whose dynasty value declined after signing with a Broncos team that already featured Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman.
However, there are also situations where a player’s dynasty value could increase after signing a new contract. Players such as Corey Davis or Curtis Samuel could find themselves in a much better offensive role come the 2021 season. And considering their middle-round ADPs, those two players would be excellent trade targets as their dynasty values could increase if they landed in better situations.
In conclusion, keep an eye on contract year players as their values could be drastically affected if their situations were to change. And with players such as Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay and Allen Robinson entering free agency, we could be in for an exciting and active off-season.
Dynasty Stock Report
Stock Up
Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs, WR
This past week, in a historic performance, Tyreek Hill would be the first receiver to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark this season. He totaled an impressive 269 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns on 13 targets against Tampa Bay. This makes Hill one of only 4 players since 1980 to record a game with at least 3 touchdowns, 10 receptions, and 250 receiving yards. The other players on that list?
- Jerry Rice
- Steve Largent
- Jimmy Smith
Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill put on a clinic vs. the Bucs 🔥
Mahomes:
37/49 Comp/Att
462 Pass Yards
3 TDHill:
13 Rec
269 Rec Yards
3 TD pic.twitter.com/gWLtjRY0Xy— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 30, 2020
But beyond that one performance, Hill has been one of the most productive fantasy receivers this year. He has been a WR1 in 54.5% of his games, while pacing as the WR8 in weighted opportunity rating (0.63) and WR2 in PPR points per game (23.6). Considering his age, production profile, and ecosystem, one could argue that Hill is the dynasty WR1 over players like Davante Adams or D.K. Metcalf. Especially with his future tied to one of the best coaches and quarterbacks in today’s league, I fully expect Hill to continue to produce high-end WR1 numbers. So as a dynasty manager, I would hold onto Hill as one of the most elite cornerstones available in dynasty football.
Stock Down
Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints, WR
Speaking of elite fantasy receivers, Michael Thomas entered the season as the clear-cut dynasty WR1 after setting the single-season reception record in 2019. And while he still retains that same upside, fantasy managers are slowly fading Thomas for several young receivers. According to November’s DLF ADP, Thomas is valued as the dynasty WR6 behind players like D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins. For the most part, the decline in value is warranted. This season, Thomas is the WR59 in PPR points per game, while finishing as a top 15 WR in only one game (20% of games).
Even though Thomas has not performed like a WR1 (or even WR2), he is still the focal point of this Saints offense. In his 5 games this year, he leads all receivers in Weighted Opportunity Rating with 0.78, which is on par with his 2019 season. However, his efficiency has declined substantially, averaging a career low yards per target (6.9) and yards per reception (10.8). With a less efficient Taysom Hill seemingly set to take over as the QB1 when Brees retires, Thomas’ dynasty outlook will carry some uncertainty heading into the off-season. So while I expect him to maintain his WR1 volume, his fantasy upside may be slightly capped going forward.
Stock Up
Antonio Gibson – Washington Football Team, RB
Seeing Antonio Gibson become the lead RB for Washington has been one of the more pleasant but unexpected stories of the season. While I believed that he would receive the volume as soon as Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice were released, I did not anticipate that Gibson would be this explosive and efficient. For fantasy, over his last 5 games, Gibson has finished as an RB1 every single week, averaging about 22.8 PPR points per game. And on the season, he sits as the RB5 in PPR leagues, despite only ranking as the RB22 in opportunities per game (16.2).
All we're thankful for is Antonio Gibson switching hands with the ball to wave to the defender on this TDpic.twitter.com/30NVxkbMQe
— PFF (@PFF) November 27, 2020
According to PlayerProfiler, Gibson has also been one of the most efficient RBs this season, ranking as the RB15 in yards created per touch (1.60), RB16 in juke rate (28.1%), and the RB8 in yards per route run (1.68). Going forward, I expect Gibson to continue to lead this backfield after averaging a season high in both snaps (65%) and opportunities (27) this past week against Dallas. For dynasty, Gibson has likely entered the dynasty RB1 conversation. And with Washington hopefully upgrading their QB position for 2021, the sky’s the limit for Gibson’s dynasty outlook.
Stock Down
Daniel Jones – New York Giants, QB
Daniel Jones has had an uneven season leading this New York Giants offense, throwing more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (8) through 11 games. From an efficiency standpoint, Jones ranks QB27 in completion percentage over expected (-1.5 percentage points) and QB37 in QB Rating (78.0). And because of his inefficiency, Jones ranks as the QB29 in points per game (16.2), while finishing as a top 12 QB in only two games. The lone bright spot for Jones’ production is his rushing floor, leading the Giants in rushing yards (403) and ranking as the QB5 in rushing yards per game (36.7).
Unfortunately, Jones suffered a grade II hamstring strain in last week’s matchup against Cincinnati. And despite attempting to return to the game, Jones was forced to leave the field again as he was clearly hampered by the injury. According to Matthew Betz’s injury recap, we could be looking at a multi-week absence for Jones. If he is unable to return this season, I expect him to be back next year as the starting QB for the Giants. Though after this year’s uninspiring performance, I would not be surprised if New York signed a high-end backup QB in free agency just in case Jones underperforms once again.
Stock Down
Will Fuller – Houston Texans, WR
On Monday, it was announced that Will Fuller will be suspended for six games after violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances. Per ESPN, Fuller was prescribed medication for a treatment earlier this year that was not approved by the NFL. As a result, what started out to be Fuller’s best year of his career will end prematurely as the Texans will likely miss the playoffs. For fantasy, Fuller has displayed the consistency of a WR2 with the upside of a WR1. In 11 games, he ranks as the WR11 in PPR points per game, while finishing as a top 24 receiver in 54.5% of his games. And to put his productive year into perspective, Fuller was on pace for 275.2 PPR points, which is only 11.2 points behind DeAndre Hopkins’ pace as the Texans’ lead receiver last season.
Fuller has fully embraced and thrived in the WR1 role for Deshaun Watson’s offense. However, he now enters the off-season as an unrestricted free agent. Considering Fuller’s availability at the trade deadline and the Texans’ limited cap space, it is more than likely that he finds himself on a different team next year. So with an uncertain future ahead, his dynasty stock does decline slightly heading into the off-season. In the meantime, wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Keke Coutee will take on a more expanded role for the Houston Texans.
Bonus: Dynasty Stash of the Week
Isaiah Coulter – Houston Texans, WR
With more opportunity available in this Texans offense, fantasy managers will likely submit a claim for Keke Coutee. However, another intriguing name to keep an eye on is Isaiah Coulter, who is still available in 61% of Sleeper dynasty leagues. The rookie out of Rhode Island is a quick, big-play receiver who is listed at 6’3” and 198 lbs. He also boasts an impressive speed score (102.4) that ranks in the 76th percentile among receivers. And per PlayerProfiler, Coulter had a solid 31.3% college dominator score, which included a 1,039 yard and 8 touchdown season in his final year at Rhode Island.
URI WR Isaiah Coulter reminds me a little of Diontae Johnson last year. Sudden at the line, good initial burst, glider with easy acceleration. Needs to put it all together at the catch point, but he's got plenty of juice. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/xehDTvStgU
— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) April 22, 2020
Because of his athletic profile and big-play ability, I can see Coulter slotting in as the Texans’ number 2 receiver opposite of Cooks, who likely assumes the Will Fuller role in this offense. Meanwhile, Keke Coutee will continue to be the slot receiver. While I do not expect Coulter to post WR2 numbers each week, if given the opportunity, I do believe he can be a serviceable WR3 or WR4 for fantasy managers. And with Fuller’s future uncertain, Coulter’s role next year could expand even further after a full off-season working in this offense. So if he is still available in your leagues’ waiver wire, go grab Coulter as his dynasty value should increase starting this week.