Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 13
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
As the year progresses, dynasty values will continue to fluctuate as injuries occur, depth charts are adjusted, and rookies emerge. Keep in mind that managing a dynasty team will require year-long engagement, with a balanced view of your team’s short and long-term outlook. Therefore, each week I will be highlighting some of the dynasty risers and fallers in the form of a Dynasty Stock Report. My hope is that this article can be a go-to resource on your journey to a dynasty #FootclanTitle. In addition to the Dynasty Stock Report, you will also find an updated Rookie Opportunity Dashboard (market share, red-zone stats, etc.) along with either a 2022 prospect breakdown, a dynasty strategy discussion, or a player to stash for the future.
Let’s dive in!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 12
Below you will find a summary of each rookie’s performance and usage from this past week. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points is a value calculated based on a player’s usage in their offense. The more high-value opportunities they receive (deep targets, red-zone opportunities, etc.), the higher their expected value will be.
- FPOE stands for Fantasy Points Over Expected and signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the difference between a player’s actual PPR points and their expected PPR value.
- Red-Zone Opportunities include targets and rush attempts. For quarterbacks, pass attempts are included as well.
If there are any specific metrics you would like me to include, or if a rookie was excluded, let me know on Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
A Few Rookie Observations from Week 12:
- Najee Harris set a career-low with 8.8 expected PPR points in week 12. Interestingly, Harris has had a negative FPOE in all but three games this season, heavily relying on his elite usage. I would assume this past week was more of an anomaly, and Harris should be right back averaging 20+ expected points as soon as this week
- Elijah Mitchell is shaping up to be a league-winner in both redraft and dynasty as he set a career-high in expected PPR points with 27.2. There should be no doubt going forward that Mitchell is the RB1 for Kyle Shanahan’s offense
- Mac Jones continues to be the most impressive rookie quarterback, ranking QB5 this past week in fantasy points (21.5) and QB10 in Fantasy Points Over Expected (+3.33 FPOE)
- Keep an eye on Texans rookie TE Brevin Jordan as he set a career-high snap rate of 59.6%, finishing the week as the TE12 with 11.3 PPR points. He seems to be more involved over the last couple of weeks, relying on his efficiency to produce for fantasy
- Jaylen Waddle continues to impress as he finished the week as a WR1 in PPR points (28.7), expected PPR points (17.6), and FPOE (+11.1)
2022 Prospect Breakdown
Breece Hall – Iowa State, RB
Breece Hall, Iowa State’s lead running back, had a record-setting game this past weekend. Against TCU, Hall totaled 281 scrimmage yards to go along with four touchdowns, exceeding 200 yards in a single game for the third time this season. In doing so, he broke an NCAA record that stood for 51 years, scoring a rushing touchdown in 24 consecutive games. In addition, Hall became one of only 11 RBs since 2000 to finish their college career with at least 3,500 rushing yards, 50 rushing touchdowns, 500 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns. It has truly been an impressive year for the Junior out of Iowa State, who is widely expected to declare for the NFL draft in the near future. And if you read the off-season edition of the Dynasty Report, you might already know how highly I think of Hall and his potential at the next level. His stellar performance in his 3rd year only solidified that notion.
Can’t wait to see Breece Hall in the NFL!
Back to back seasons with 1700+ scrimmage yards and 20+ touchdowns.
Per @collegefb_ref, one of only 11 RBs since 2000 with career numbers of:
▫️3500+ Rush Yards
▫️50+ Rush TDs
▫️500+ Rec Yards
▫️5+ Rec TDs
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) November 27, 2021
If we take a deeper look at his overall profile, Hall is shaping up to be the most complete running back prospect in the 2022 NFL draft. Not only does he have an impressive combination of speed, vision, and contact balance, he can block and contribute in the receiving game as well. From a production standpoint, he checks nearly every box as a prospect. Hall accounted for 83.3% of Iowa State’s running back production in his three seasons while averaging 22.2 touches per game on an impressive 2.05 yards per team play. In addition, he averaged 7.7% of their receiving yards per game, proving that he is more than capable of being a dual-threat weapon. And to put his elite production into perspective, Hall is one of only two RB prospects since 2015 to average at least 2.00 yards per team play, 20 touches per game, and 60% of their team’s running back production. The other is Jonathan Taylor, one of the best prospects we have seen in the last decade.
Do not be surprised if Hall is the first running back drafted in the 2022 class, giving him the highest potential to be an immediate contributor in all fantasy formats.
Dynasty Stock Report
Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears, WR
Entering the 2021 season, many expected that the Bears would produce at least one top-24 wide receiver for fantasy purposes. Very few, if any, expected that to be Darnell Mooney, the second-year receiver out of Tulane. After a modest rookie year in which he totaled 1,133 air yards and a respectable 17% target share, Mooney has taken a significant step forward. Part of his breakout can be attributed to Allen Robinson’s struggles, one of the most inefficient wide receivers on a per-target basis this season. On the other hand, Mooney has also commanded a solid baseline of opportunities even with Robinson in the lineup. In 11 games, Mooney has exceeded a 20% target share nine times, while leading the Bears with a 34.1% air yards share. Compared to the rest of the league, Mooney has been a WR1 from a volume and efficiency standpoint, ranking WR11 in weighted opportunity rating (0.65) and WR7 in receiving yards per team pass attempt (2.24).
Lastly, as you can see in the graph above, Mooney has scored double-digit expected points in 63.6% of his games. His week 11 usage was particularly impressive as he set a season-high with 27.7 expected PPR points, which is the 9th highest single-game value among all wide receiver performances this year. From a dynasty perspective, he should be entrenched as a top-36 receiver considering his rookie contract locks him in with Justin Fields through the 2023 season. And with Robinson potentially leaving the Bears after the 2021 campaign, Mooney should have every opportunity to lead their receiving offense once again next year.
Christian McCaffrey – Carolina Panthers, RB
Christian McCaffrey has been one of the most dominant running backs in fantasy football whenever he is on the field. In fact, his 2019 and 2020 seasons currently rank within the top-6 in fantasy football history in PPR points per game, only behind seasons from Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, and LaDainian Tomlinson. And since being drafted in 2017, he leads all running backs in receiving yards per game (56.3) while also ranking 8th in rushing yards per game (75.0) in 42 games. However, the overarching storyline over the last two seasons has been his lack of availability, as CMC was once again placed on injured reserve after suffering an ankle injury in week 12. Since 2020, he has played a grand total of 10 games, putting into question his reliability for fantasy purposes.
Considering CMC was widely regarded as the 1.01 for the last several seasons (in 1QB leagues), his dynasty stock can only go down from here. And with younger players like Jonathan Taylor and Justin Jefferson on the rise, McCaffrey’s time as the top dynasty pick was bound to come to an end. As a dynasty manager, your best bet is to likely hold on to him until reports surface that he is fully healthy and ready for the 2022 campaign. On the other hand, depending on how low his value dips early in the off-season, CMC could also be an intriguing trade target. Because even if Carolina decides to limit his touches going forward, as long as he remains involved in the receiving game, he should still retain value as a high-upside top-24 running back. For now, his dynasty value will undoubtedly decline as questions loom regarding his durability and potential role for this Panthers’ offense going forward.
Diontae Johnson – Pittsburgh Steelers, WR
Even as questions linger regarding Pittsburgh’s offensive line and declining quarterback play, the one consistent piece in their offense has been Diontae Johnson. Through 10 games, Johnson has been a top-24 PPR wide receiver 90% of the time. In addition, he has received at least a 25% target share in 80% of his games, providing dynasty managers a solid baseline of production when healthy. When evaluating his season as a whole, Diontae ranks within the top-12 in multiple opportunity metrics:
- WR9 in Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (2.15)
- WR3 in Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.71)
- WR4 in Route Participation (94.7%)
- WR4 in Team Opportunity Share (18.3%)
- WR8 in PPR per game (17.5)
Barring an unfortunate injury, I fully expect Diontae to set career-highs in targets and receiving yards as the Steelers have one of the more favorable schedules for fantasy receivers to close out the season. And even in the tougher matchups, Johnson should continue to benefit from consistent volume. In fact, as you can see in the chart above, Johnson has impressively exceeded 20 expected PPR points in 70% of his games. From a dynasty perspective, he is slowly rising in my rankings as a top-24 wide receiver. And with Juju Smith-Schuster set to enter free agency, Diontae should maintain his consistent production as his rookie contract runs through the 2022 season. The one caveat to that could be the quarterback play. But regardless of who is under center next season, Johnson should continue to absorb and command targets in Mike Tomlin’s offense.
Bryan Edwards – Las Vegas Raiders, WR
After a relatively quiet rookie season in which he totaled 193 receiving yards in 12 games, dynasty managers were expecting a slight improvement from Bryan Edwards heading into his second season. And while he is setting career highs across the board, he has been far from fantasy relevant in his 11 games this year. So far, he has finished within the top-36 (PPR) only twice this season, averaging 7.1 PPR points per game. Furthermore, Edwards has seen a greater than 15% target share in only one of his games, trailing Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and Josh Jacobs in that metric this season. Simply put, Edwards has not commanded the volume that you would expect from a 2nd-round receiver. Even after Henry Ruggs was released by the Raiders, potentially freeing up more targets, Edwards’ opportunity share has actually declined over the last four weeks. Dynasty managers are now likely in a difficult situation as Edwards is not quite droppable yet, but will garner very little trade value in most leagues. However, if you can find someone who is still a believer in his potential and is willing to trade a 2nd-round rookie pick for him, I would gladly take that offer considering the talent at wide receiver in this upcoming class.
Marvin! Who the F@#* am I supposed to D stream this week when my 12 man standard league(well 11 man… I’m the only female, in 2nd @ 9-3) These idiots are hoarding defenses! I’m stuck with LV, Cincinnati, NY, CHI, Seattle,Pitt, Chargers NOLA, Jets, Denver or W.F.T.
Was hoping someone would drop a Def for someone this week. Looks unlikely…. HELP ME
Hey Lauren, definitely tough choices. I do like the Steelers playing at home against Baltimore though they have a few defensive players on COVID reserve. If TJ Watt plays, they’d be my pick. Otherwise, the Giants DST could be an intriguing option as well in a decent matchup. They’d be my 2nd pick.
Excellent column. Unrelated, I desperately need some trade advice. Deadline fast approaching in my highly competitive, 12team, .5PPR league. I’m currently the 1 seed, 10-2, going up against the 2 seed, 9-3, this week. Keeping the 1 is imperative, because the best team, by far, is the 3 seed (JT, Kamara, Mattison, Hendo). Been in negotiations with the 7 seed, who is surging but currently out of the playoffs.
Latest trade offer: My Gronk and Dillon for his Waddle, Pollard and Freiermuth
My goals are to win this week, sure up my receiver corps, and plan for weeks 16 and 17. I would hate to give up Gronk but am skeptical of his ability to stay healthy ROS. Waddle would immediately move into my flex this week, and I think Pollard may end up having more value than Dillon ROS. Thoughts?
Hey Rocky – thanks for reaching out. I’m assuming this is redraft and not dynasty? I think either way I’d take the Waddle side since that helps you potentially win this week with all those injuries on your team. I agree that Pollard and Dillon are relatively equal in value, plus Waddle has a great rest of season schedule (though a bye week in Week 14 – hopefully Deebo is healthy by then). The only concern in that deal is the Muth’s concussion. Assuming you have a fill-in at TE just in case he’s out this week, I’d take that deal. If this is a dynasty league… it’s hands down the Waddle/Muth side. Hope this helps!