Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 11

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Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!

Managing a dynasty team requires year-long engagement and commitment. By far, the toughest aspect of building a dynasty championship roster is balancing the present and the future. It is not easy, but the Fantasy Footballers team is here to guide you through that process!

As we approach the fantasy playoffs, the dynasty landscape continues to change as depth charts are adjusted and injuries occur. If you are new to this series, each week I will provide you with the following:

  • Dynasty Tip of the Week
  • Dynasty Stock Report
  • Bonus Segment (an intriguing statistic, college prospect evaluation, or a dynasty stash)

Let’s dive in!

Dynasty Tip of The Week

Utilizing Dynasty ADP 

One of the easiest ways to assess a player’s dynasty value is through their ADP, which stands for Average Draft Position. Typically, this data is aggregated and compiled from numerous mock drafts, which then ranks players based on their average draft slot. 

You may have heard Andy, Mike, and Jason mention this term several times heading into the season as it directly affects your draft strategy for your seasonal leagues. The same can be said about dynasty leagues, though dynasty values are not always as sensitive as standard redraft ADP. A great example of this is Saquon Barkley, who remains a top-5 dynasty RB despite his season-ending injury simply because of his talent and upside. Conversely, you might have a player like Odell Beckham Jr. who started the season as the dynasty WR12, but has since dropped to WR30 because of injury.

Therefore, when a player’s dynasty ADP drastically shifts, that is something we as fantasy managers need to pay attention to. It is a direct reflection of how the dynasty community views a specific player, which can serve as its own holistic stock report. So even though we are currently in the middle of the season, it can be beneficial to compare the pre-season dynasty ADP to current ADP. This can be especially useful for trading as it allows you to determine which players you can target based on their increasing or decreasing value. 

So where can you find monthly dynasty ADP? One source would be the Fantasy Football Calculator, which is a free website that allows you to filter by position and year. Two paid resources would be Rotoviz and Dynasty League Football, which provide multiple perks beyond the raw ADP data. Regardless of which website you utilize, be sure to pay attention to these values as they can be insightful as you build your championship rosters. 

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Dynasty Stock Report

Stock Up

Michael Pittman Jr. – Indianapolis Colts, WR

This year’s rookie WR class is shaping up to be one of the most productive groups in recent history, with a new rookie receiver seemingly breaking out each week. And most recently, we can add Michael Pittman Jr. to that list after an impressive performance vs TEN. He compiled 101 receiving yards and seven receptions on eight targets, while operating as the clear-cut WR1 for Philip Rivers. And over the last two weeks, Pittman has led the Colts in targets (150), receiving yards (157), Air Yards (162), and Yards After Catch (77). 

I expect Pittman to continue to lead all Colts receivers in the passing game as they approach a very favorable WR schedule starting in week 12. And assuming he continues to receive a sizable target share, his production streak should continue. As for his dynasty value, we have seen it drop from WR38 (June) to WR47 in October, likely due to his injury. But after his most recent performance, I assume that number will rise fairly quickly. If a fantasy manager is still uncertain about Pittman’s long term value, now might be the perfect time to scoop him up before his schedule lightens up. 

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Stock Down

Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts, RB

Earlier this year, I pegged Jonathan Taylor as a player whose stock was trending up after two productive performances to start the year. Interestingly, 31.5% of his total yards were accumulated in those two games against Jacksonville and Minnesota, two teams who have struggled to defend RBs for most of the season. But since week 3, he has been rather inefficient, totaling only 432 yards on 94 total opportunities (targets and rush attempts). 

Where Taylor has clearly struggled the most is in the run game, as evidenced by his less than stellar vision and decision-making over the last several weeks. The advanced metrics, per PlayerProfiler, support that notion as well with Taylor ranking RB59 in yards created per touch (0.46), RB36 in breakaway run rate (3.6%) and RB52 in evaded tackles per touch (14.1%). Simply put, Taylor has rarely produced beyond what his offensive line has blocked for him. And since the Colts’ bye week, Taylor’s snap percentage declined to an average of 29.3%, with both Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines more involved. Unfortunately, with his dynasty value seemingly at a season-low, fantasy managers will need to be patient and hope that the favorable schedule ahead will result in improved fantasy production. 

Stock Up

Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers, WR

Brandon Aiyuk, rookie first-round pick out of Arizona State, has been one of the few bright spots in an injury-riddled season for the San Francisco 49ers. With George Kittle and Deebo Samuel missing time, Aiyuk has taken full advantage of his increased workload. Since week 7, Aiyuk has been the WR5 in opportunity share (18%), while leading his team in targets per game with 10.7. And in that same time span, he has paced as the WR5 in PPR points per game (20.1), finishing as a top 20 PPR receiver in all 3 weeks. What is even more impressive is that despite the QB change to Nick Mullens, Aiyuk has remained productive for fantasy managers.

Keep in mind, however, that Samuel will likely return after their bye week. And when Kittle returns, whether that be later this season or in 2021, you can expect him to command a significant target share. But despite the crowded receiving room, Aiyuk has earned himself a role in this offense after showcasing some of the versatility, savvy route running, and reliability that made him a first-round pick in this year’s NFL draft. Expect Aiyuk to continue to improve and potentially emerge as the WR1 in this efficient Shanahan offense heading into 2021.

Stock Down

Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys, RB

The Dallas Cowboys were one of the most explosive offenses to start the season. But when Dak Prescott suffered his season-ending ankle fracture, every Cowboys offensive player experienced a significant decline in production, including Ezekiel Elliott. With Dak active this season, Elliott averaged an impressive 23.1 PPR points per game, 24.4 opportunities, and 107.4 scrimmage yards. But over the last 4 games, those numbers declined substantially to 9.82 PPR points, 19.7 opportunities, and only 68.3 total yards. But what has hurt Elliott’s fantasy production the most is the lack of scoring opportunity. After averaging 1.2 touchdowns per game with Dak, he has not scored in his last 4 games.

As an Elliott fantasy manager, it may be tempting to jump ship and try to trade Elliott for whatever you can get in return. However, I would try to hold on if you have the depth to replace him in your starting lineup. He continues to be one of the more durable RBs in the league. And since 1980, among RBs with a minimum of 300 total touches, Elliott ranks 5th in PPR points per game (20.25) only behind Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, and LaDanian Tomlinson. Elliott has been truly elite since joining the league, and I expect that to continue once the Cowboys either invest at Quarterback through the draft or by extending Prescott to a long-term deal.

Stock Up

Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals, QB

Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson were the popular picks to finish as the QB1 in fantasy heading into the season. However, through 10 weeks, Kyler Murray is the leader in fantasy points per game with 32.6. And while his passing numbers are very respectable, it’s Murray’s rushing floor that has made him so dominant this season, averaging 67.1 rushing yards per game to lead all QBs. In addition, Murray has thrived in the red-zone this year. Through 10 weeks, per FantasyData, Murray has converted 19 red-zone carries into 8 TDs, while also averaging the 11th highest red zone completion percentage with 67.5%. And by far one of his most memorable performances came this past week, as Murray led a game-winning drive against the Bills that ended the game with a 43-yard touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins.

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To say the least, Murray has been sensational to start his career. In fact, since 1980, Murray ranks QB4 in total fantasy points (548.7) among all QBs in their first 25 starts (minimum 500 passing attempts). This puts him ahead of players like Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, and Aaron Rodgers. And going forward, not only is he tied to one of the better offensive minds in Kliff Kingsbury, he will also have Hopkins as his WR1 for at least another 4 years. So if there was any doubt heading into the season, Murray should now be considered a top 3 dynasty quarterback going forward.    

Bonus: Rookie Statistical Review (10 Weeks)

We are 10 weeks into the season and we have had multiple rookies emerge as solid fantasy contributors. As a result, most dynasty teams that opted for a rebuild heading into the 2020 off-season are likely winning multiple games on the back of these rookies. By far the most unexpected story is James Robinson, who was an undrafted free agent signed by the Jaguars, but is now leading all rookie RBs in opportunity share and carries per game. If you managed to snag him late in your drafts, you are greatly benefiting from his RB1 season. On the other hand, Cam Akers is a second-round pick who has been extremely efficient with his touches, but has not received the workload that we had hoped for.

As for the Quarterback position, Justin Herbert continues to dominate in several efficiency metrics, while Joe Burrow leads all rookies in passing volume. Tua Tagovailoa, who is now approaching his 3rd start for the Dolphins, has been very accurate and efficient, as evidenced by his rookie-leading catchable pass rate (79.20%) and touchdown rate (6.50%). 

In this largely impressive rookie class, two highly productive players that stand out are wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Tee Higgins. Not only do they lead this class in metrics such as receiving yards, yards per route run, and dominator rating, they have also become a focal point of their team’s passing attack. And one name to keep an eye on is Denzel Mims, who has steadily become more and more involved in the Jets offense. He currently leads all rookies in target share and red zone target share, though it has not translated into fantasy production quite yet.

Data by PlayerProfiler

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QB Metric Rookie QB Leader Value
Passing Yards/Game Justin Herbert 291.60
Attempts/Game Joe Burrow 41.10
Air Yards/Game Joe Burrow 335.20
Catchable Pass Rate Tua Tagovailoa 79.20%
True Comp % Justin Herbert 73.10%
Deep Ball Comp % Justin Herbert 43.90%
Pressured Comp % Justin Herbert 52.30%
Touchdown Rate Tua Tagovailoa 6.50%
Rush Yards/Game Justin Herbert 22.00

RB Metric Rookie RB Leader Value
Opportunity Share James Robinson 85.10
Carries/Game James Robinson 17.20
Targets/Game Clyde Edwards-Helaire 4.80
Total TDs Antonio Gibson/James Robinson 7.00
Yards per Route Run* D’Andre Swift 1.99
Breakaway Run Rate* D’Andre Swift 8.60%
Evaded Tackles/Touch* Cam Akers 36.20%
Yards Created/Touch* Cam Akers 2.23

*Minimum 10 Touches

WR Metric Rookie WR Leader Value
Receiving Yards/Game Justin Jefferson 84.70
Targets/Game Jerry Jeudy 7.70
Deep Targets/Game Chase Claypool 1.78
Air Yards/Game Jerry Jeudy 109.60
Yards Per Route Run* Justin Jefferson 3.20
Dominator Rating Tee Higgins 29.70%
Target Share Denzel Mims 24.30%
Red Zone Target Share Denzel Mims 33.30%

* Minimum 10 Targets

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