Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 10
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
Managing a dynasty team requires year-long engagement and commitment. By far, the toughest aspect of dynasty football is balancing the present and the future. It is not an easy task, but the Fantasy Footballers team is here to help guide you through that process!
We are now approaching week 10, and the dynasty landscape continues to change as depth charts are adjusted and injuries occur. If you are new to this series, each week I will provide you with the following:
- Dynasty Tip of the Week
- Dynasty Stock Report
- Bonus Segment (an intriguing statistic, college prospect evaluation, or a dynasty stash)
Let’s dive in!
Dynasty Tip of The Week
Evaluate Your Team and Stay Committed
In most dynasty leagues, the trade deadline is likely approaching over the next two or three weeks. As a dynasty manager, you will be faced with a couple of tough decisions. Are you still a playoff contender? And if you are hovering around a .500 record, would you be better off rebuilding for next season?
Before you answer those questions, be sure to fully assess your roster and determine if you have the fire-power to contend this year. Most importantly, look beyond your starting lineup. With COVID-19 continuing to affect player availability across the league, depth will likely win you a dynasty championship this season. In fact, entering this last Sunday’s slate of games, 50% of teams were dealing with at least one positive COVID-19 case. Therefore, having depth at all positions will give you the best chance of winning your league.
Regardless of which path you decide to take, my advice is to fully commit to that decision. As you approach the trade deadline, never settle for being a middle-of-the-pack team. If you decide to go for a championship, do not hesitate to trade youth for players who can win you games this season – such as Adam Thielen or Keenan Allen. If you are no longer a contender, focus on acquiring picks and youth to build your roster. In doing so, it may require trading someone like Christian McCaffrey or Michael Thomas. And while that may be difficult in the moment, if it yields you multiple young, promising prospects, you might just set yourself up for success for the next few years.
Finally, do not be discouraged if your roster is not a championship team this season. The beauty of dynasty football is that you can make decisions that not only affect your team this season but also for the next few years. Remain engaged and continue to strive for that dynasty championship, even if it has to wait until the 2021 season.
Dynasty Stock Report
Stock Up
Terry McLaurin – Washington Football Team, WR
Terry McLaurin was coming off of a productive rookie season where he finished as the WR30 in PPR points per game (13.7). Considering he was catching passes from the likes of Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, and Dwayne Haskins, his production was truly impressive. Heading into 2020, the hope was that Haskins would take the next step as a franchise QB, improving McLaurin’s fantasy upside. To our disappointment, Haskins was benched after week 4, leaving McLaurin catching passes from Alex Smith and Kyle Allen.
If we knew heading into the season that his QB situation would not improve, we would have dismissed McLaurin as a reliable fantasy receiver. Yet here we are, heading into week 10, and he is the WR14 in PPR/game (17.2), WR2 in weighted opportunity rating (0.74), and the WR4 in expected fantasy points per game (15.7 – per Rotoviz). Despite the carousel at the QB position, McLaurin has been a steady rock for fantasy managers, finishing as a top 24 WR in 62.5% of his games. After seeing him produce with below-average QB play, imagine what McLaurin can do with Trey Lance or Justin Fields leading this offense! Scary Terry’s dynasty stock is already pointing upward, but it could sky-rocket if he received an upgrade at QB in 2021.
Stock Down
Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens, TE
Mark Andrews has had a very uneven season for fantasy managers, finishing as a TE2 or worse in 5 of his first 8 games. And despite an increase in snap percentage this season, Andrews is seeing a decline in targets per game (-1.03), target share (-3% pts), and yards per target (-1.9). From a fantasy perspective, he is averaging about 3.2 PPR points per game less than he did in 2019. His decline in consistent production can likely be linked to Lamar Jackson, who has regressed heavily since his stellar 2019 season. For comparison, Lamar is averaging a lower net yards per attempt (-1.19), a lower TD percentage (-4.4), and less rushing yards per game (-21.8). As a result, this offense is not as efficient as it was last year, severely capping Andrews’ upside.
Mark Andrews' PPR points scored over his last three: 4.1, 6.2, 5.2.
Some tight ends with more points per game since Week 5: Tyler Kroft, Cole Kmet, Adam Trautman, and teammate Nick Boyle.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 9, 2020
If you are an Andrews fantasy manager, I would remain patient as he is still the TE8 in PPR points per game. Fortunately, starting in week 13, the Ravens have the 2nd easiest fantasy schedule for TEs, so I fully expect Andrews to improve on his lackluster start to the season. Recency bias, however, may lead fantasy managers to pivot away from Andrews, which may be an excellent opportunity to trade for him while his value is on the decline.
Stock Up
Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins, QB
Tua Tagovailoa’s first start as a Miami Dolphin came against a tough Rams defense where he was not asked to do much to secure the win. With the Miami defense/special teams scoring twice on a fumble recovery and punt return, Tua’s 93 passing yards and 1 passing TD was enough to lead the team to victory. This past week was a much more productive game for the rookie as he threw for two TDs and 248 passing yards on 28 attempts against the Cardinals. He would finish the week as the QB15 with 23.9 fantasy points.
💪 @Tua doing whatever it takes to get that W today.
(via @MiamiDolphins) pic.twitter.com/Inn6kv8WEr
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 8, 2020
Looking beyond the numbers, what was most impressive to me was Tua’s pocket awareness. Oftentimes, he would stand tall in the face of pressure to execute a well-timed throw. But furthermore, he knew when to escape the pocket to either buy his receivers more time or run it himself. It has been an encouraging start to Tua’s career as he is now the QB10 in Quarterback Rating (104.7) in three games this season. I fully expect Tua to continue to improve, cementing himself as a top 12 dynasty QB going into 2021.
Stock Down
Le’Veon Bell – Kansas City Chiefs, RB
Le’Veon Bell has had very minimal action this season, only playing in two games with the Jets and three games since being traded to Kansas City. Not once in those five games did he finish as a top 30 RB in PPR leagues. What has seemingly kept him fantasy relevant with the Jets was volume, and that has been hard to come by in this Kansas City backfield. In three games with the Chiefs, Bell has averaged only 6.6 opportunities and 26.6 total yards per game, while splitting snaps with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams.
Going forward, he will be a high-upside backup for all Edwards-Helaire managers. And if something were to happen to the rookie, Bell could certainly be a league-winner. Unfortunately, he only signed a one-year deal with Kansas City. With another talented RB class entering the league, I do not expect Bell to be a 3-down RB on any team next season, further reducing his dynasty value heading into 2021.
Stock Up
Brandin Cooks – Houston Texans, WR
Brandin Cooks was one of the most productive receivers in his first 5 years in the league. From 2014 to 2018, among receivers with at least 200 targets, Cooks ranked 8th in scrimmage yards (5,376), 8th in yards per target (9.43), and T-10th in receiving TDs (32). And in each season where he played a full 16 games, his worst fantasy finish was WR15 in 2017. However, after an injury-riddled season with the Rams, many fantasy managers seemingly forgot how productive Cooks can be for their fantasy teams. As a result, his dynasty ADP dropped from WR14 in 2019 to WR42 heading into 2020.
Brandin Cooks has quietly produced over the last 4 games.
Since week 5 (ex tonight’s MNF):
▫️WR6 in PPR/game (20.5)
▫️WR7 in Expected FPs/gm (16.9)
per @RotoViz
▫️WR9 in Target share (28%)
▫️WR24 in Air Yard share (31%)
▫️T-WR9 in TDs/gm (0.8)— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) November 9, 2020
To start the season, Cooks struggled to produce as the Texans could not win any games. But once Bill O’Brien was fired, we saw a much more explosive player who has paced as the WR6 in PPR points per game over the last 5 weeks. And if he continues to produce at this rate, Cooks could be on his way to his 5th 1,000-yard season in 7 years. From a dynasty perspective, Cooks is now tied to Deshaun Watson for the remainder of his 5-year contract (expires in 2023). And with Will Fuller approaching free agency after this season, Cooks could be the de facto WR1 for Watson as soon as next year.
Bonus: College Prospect Evaluation
Travis Etienne – Clemson Tigers, RB
Explosive. Tough. Complete.
Those are some of the words that come to mind when describing Clemson Tigers RB Travis Etienne. In his first three seasons in college, he produced an impressive 4,605 scrimmage yards while averaging an absurd 1.44 touchdowns per game. And in 8 games this season, he is up to 1,125 total yards and 12 total TDs. He has truly been one of the most productive RBs in college football history as he holds the career rushing yard title for the ACC and Clemson.
What I love about Etienne is his Kamara-esque contact balance and absorption. Just when you think he is about to go down, he breaks the tackle and sheds the defender for additional yards. Combine that with his acceleration, explosiveness, and decisive vision, and you have one of the most prolific rushers in this 2021 RB class. In addition, we have also seen Etienne steadily develop in the receiving game. After only accumulating 37 receptions and 135 receiving yards in his first two years at Clemson, he vastly improved in his Junior year, finishing with 37 receptions on 432 receiving yards. And in only 8 games this season, he has already eclipsed his last year total with 491 receiving yards on a career-high 13.3 yards per reception. As an RB who excels in all facets of the game, I envision Etienne as a 3-down RB in the NFL.
It was a day for the history books for Travis Etienne! ✍️#ALLIN | @ClemsonFB @swaggy_t1 pic.twitter.com/l16AMIN2dS
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) November 2, 2020
Coming off of his worst game of the season against Notre Dame, keep an eye on Etienne as Clemson faces Florida State next weekend. And if you are a fantasy manager that is slated to pick in the top half of your 1QB and SuperFlex rookie drafts, you might just land a truly elite talent at the RB position in Etienne.
NFL Draft Projection: Late 1st/Early 2nd Round
Fantasy Rookie Draft Projection (1QB/1TE): Early 1st Round