Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Week 3
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra interesting thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for both myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 2’s results:
|Aaron Rodgers||3 Passing TDs||BUY||BUY||BUY|
|Calvin Ridley||100+ Rec Yards||SELL||SELL||SELL|
|Allen Robinson||Top-12 WR||SELL||SELL||SELL||SELL|
|Mac Jones||249 Pass Yards||—||—||—||SELL|
|Antonio Gibson||70 Rush Yards||—||—||—|
|Michael Pittman Jr.||40 Rec Yards||—||—||—|
I was able to get all three Podcast Buy/Sells correctly, but I shot myself in the foot with the Lines I hand-picked, going 1/3 in the Nate Henry Bonus Buy/Sell. Ugh!
As a bonus, Mac Jones wouldn’t sniff 249 passing yards. In an all-time bummer, I missed the Antonio Gibson line by one measly yard (the line was set at 70 yards, and Gibson accumulated 69). It feels wrong that I have to take the L on this one… While I was close with the Gibson line, I was not close regarding the Pittman prop. Pittman had a huge game surpassing 100 yards, which is more than the 40 receiving yards line. 40 yards was such a low line that it was probably dumb not to buy it, but I will note that Jalen Ramsey did not shadow Pittman as expected (notably he has not shadowed in 2021 – take note!). Alas…
Week 3 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: Unsolved Mysteries + Georgie Porgie, Ride the Snake
George Kittle (TE, SF) vs. GB – 13 Fantasy Points
Andy bought, arguing that the matchup looks good, noting that Green Bay’s defense has not responded to their new defensive coordinator, Joe Barry. Jason sold, mentioning that George Kittle doesn’t typically score TDs. Finally, Mike bought, reluctantly, believing that San Fran will need to pass frequently to keep up with Aaron Rodgers.
Like Mike, I am having a tough time with this one. I am going to sell believing that what we saw in Weeks 1-2 will continue, namely that Deebo is the primary target on the team when he’s healthy. I don’t think Kittle gets to 13 fantasy points without being the 49ers primary target.
James Robinson (RB, JAX) vs. ARI – 15 touches
Andy sold immediately, but Jason bought noting that Arizona’s pace of play will increase the odds that Robinson gets to 15 touches. Mike added that Robinson’s numbers increased in Week 2 and bought believing the trend will continue.
I agree with Mike and Jason. Robinson’s role is increasing week-to-week and there really isn’t another running back to take touches away from him (Carlos Hyde was more or less phased out last week). Arizona likely runs up the score on Jacksonville, but I think a deficit keeps Robinson on the field. I will buy.
Robert Woods (WR, LAR) vs. TB – Top 24 WR
Andy bet against a touchdown, selling this line, which Jason agreed with completely. Mike noted that he ranked Woods WR23, but sold anyway, playing the probabilities.
I will sell as well. Woods and Stafford haven’t developed any chemistry yet, and I don’t think that will develop against one of the top defenses in the NFL.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI) vs. JAX – 273 Passing Yards
Kyler destroyed the Vikings’ secondary last week to the tune of 400 passing yards. This crazy high passing yardage number was certainly helped by the game script, as the game was a high-scoring, down-to-the-wire game. The game script won’t help much in this one, as I think Arizona cruises past Jacksonville. Still, the Arizona running game looks rough, outside of Kyler scrambling and running designed QB-runs. So, I think the Cardinals still need to pass a lot to win, and the Jaguars’ defense won’t stop him from getting 273 through the air.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL) vs. NYG – 49 Receiving Yards
The Giants’ defense isn’t as bad as I originally believed, and they just held Logan Thomas under 49 passing yards in Week 2. Still, I like Pitts to surpass 49 receiving yards in Week 3. Pitts has 14 targets in two games, which is actually more than Logan Thomas so far in 2021. Pitts hasn’t excelled so far, but the Falcons have played two strong defenses in Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. New York is a respectable defense, but they aren’t on the level of Tampa. I like Pitts to exceed 49 receiving yards.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WFT) vs. BUF – 80 receiving Yards
Tre’Davious White tends to shadow the opposing team’s #1 WR, which means that McLaurin, Washington’s clear #1 WR, will get the White shadow all day in Week 3. Buffalo has been the best at preventing fantasy points to wide receivers. Facing one of the NFL’s top shadow corners with a backup QB, I am going to sell that McLaurin gets to 80 receiving yards.