Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Week 2
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra interesting thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: Bounce Backs + Waiver Wire Tilt, King of Texas
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for both myself and Andy, Mike and Jason (whether they like it or not!)
Nate – 5-1 (83.3%)
I am very upset that I didn’t go 6-0 this week. Raheem Mostert should have smashed the 70-yard threshold were he not made of glass. The injuries for Mostert are getting downright infuriating. Shame on me for believing that Mostert could get through one game, but everything just fell in his favor so perfectly – Trey Sermon was inactive, the 49ers were playing a terrible defense, and Elijah Mitchell‘s performance proved that the process was sound (other than, ya know, believing that the NFL version of Samuel L. Jackson in Unbreakable could handle more than two carries).
Despite this unfortunate “L”, the Buy/Sell lines from last week all went in my favor. Corey Davis hit seven targets exactly, Logan Thomas only had three receptions, D.J. Moore was heavily involved and surpassed 71 yards, Joe Burrow didn’t hit the 279 yards passing, and Justin Fields played in Week 1. Perhaps it’s a bit cheeky to give myself the “W” on the Fields pick because my argument was that the Bears would put him in after Dalton struggled. Instead, the Bears involved him early on, although I was right that Dalton would struggle. Regardless, still getting the “W” on Burrow is particularly impressive given that he had almost an entire overtime period and still couldn’t hit 279 yards passing, so I think 5-1 is a fair reflection of my Buy/Sell week.
Jason – 2-1 (66.7%) – Jason also picked for Mostert, forgetting that Raheem’s knee cartilage is actually just a chewed piece of bubble gum holding the joints together, but he nailed the Thomas and Davis picks.
Mike – 2-1 (66.7%) – Mike’s picks aligned with Jason exactly. Mike would have been perfect had he simply remembered that Raheem Mostert is the Zero-RB “fragility theory” Poster Boy. (Can you tell that Raheem Mostert cost me a fantasy victory this week, and I’m mad? GOOD!)
Andy – 1-2 (33.3%) – Like me, Andy got upstaged by “Bird Bones” Mostert.
Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB) vs. DET – Three Touchdown Passes
Mike and Jason bought immediately, omitting any analysis and choosing instead to rag on my Lions. To Mike’s credit, he did bring up Rodgers’ historical numbers that traditionally show a bounce back after a sticker. Andy was more tempered, believing Rodgers would only throw for two touchdowns.
As for me, something tells me that Aaron Rodgers is frustrated by his Week 1 performance. I noted in my Weekly Trends and Reactions video that the Green Bay offensive line really struggled, making Aaron Rodgers‘ life miserable. Well, the Lions defensive line is not strong, especially not in the pass rush. Rodgers should get plenty of time to pass, allowing him to take out his Week 1 passing frustrations on the miserable Lions defense. Added bonus, the Lions top cornerback, Jeff Okudah, is out for the year with an Achilles injury, so the Lions will pose little resistance against the Packers pass catchers (it’s only okay when I rag on them!). I will buy 3 passing touchdowns for Rodgers. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if GB scored six or more touchdowns against Detroit on Monday night.
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL) vs. TB – 100 Receiving Yards
Jason sold, noting that the Falcons’ offensive line issues hindered Ridley in Week 1, and Tampa Bay should do weak havoc on Atlanta’s pass protection. Conversely, Andy noted that CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper both had huge games against a beat-up Buccaneers secondary, and he bought the line. Finally, Mike noted that 100 yards is a lot of receiving, and Matt Ryan might be holding the Falcons’ offense back, so he sold.
I am going to sell this one. Atlanta struggled mightily against a strong Philly defensive line, and Tampa’s strength is also the defensive line. I realize that Tampa will light up the scoreboard against this team and will put Atlanta into a passing game script early and often, but so did Philadelphia, and Ridley couldn’t surpass 100 yards in that one either. I just don’t think Matt Ryan has enough time in this one to get Ridley the ball in space.
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI) vs. CIN – Top-12 WR (0.5 PPR)
Jason likes Robinson this week but thought top 12 was too high. Andy noted that Robinson had 11 targets but was very inefficient in them, but Andy also noted that Dalton won’t get him to the WR12 promised land. Finally, Mike is also selling noting that he ranked Robinson lower than 12th.
The WR12 in Week 1 was CeeDee Lamb with 19.9 fantasy points, so Robinson probably needs 18 points or more to be a WR12 in Week 2. Matt Nagy admitted that the game plan against LA was short, quick passes because Aaron Donald was coming quickly for Andy Dalton, so it’s safe to assume we won’t see this again against Cincinnati:
Robinson saw 11 targets, which is a top 12 number. If Justin Fields were playing, I would definitely be buying this one. Because Andy Dalton is starting, I don’t think Robinson finds the end zone necessary to become a WR12 or higher.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Mac Jones (QB, NE) vs. NYJ– 249 Passing Yards
Mac Jones threw for 281 yards in Week 1 against a Miami defense that stands to be much better than the Jets. This game won’t be a barn-burner, but neither was Week 1 against Miami (17-16 final score). To easily surpass 250 yards, Jones only needs a slightly higher scoring game. It’s possible that New England could rely on the running game heavily and hamper Jones passing yardage, but 249 is just too low not to buy.
Antonio Gibson (RB, WFT) vs. NYG – 70 Rushing Yards
I like the over here as well. The Giants just allowed Melvin Gordon to run for 101 yards on 11 carries. Gibson looks like a true workhorse, especially now that Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t the starting quarterback (They relied on Gibson more after Fitzpatrick got hurt). Gibson got 20 carries last week against the Chargers and ran for 90 yards. The Chargers have a great D-line, headlined by Joey Bosa, so 90 yards against a solid defense bodes well for surpassing 70 yards against the Giants on Thursday night. I think this threshold is likely suppressed because of some injury concern for Gibson (he was limited at practice on Monday). I am not concerned, so I will buy the dip!
Michael Pittman (WR, IND) vs. LAR – 50 Receiving Yards
There’s no way Pittman gets 50 receiving yards. Pittman is the most likely candidate to get shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, which hurts even the best WRs (just look at Allen Robinson in Week 1). Pittman isn’t that involved in the Indy offense to begin with, and I think that Zach Pascal and Jonathan Taylor will be the primary focus on the Indy offense against the Rams vaunted defense. The Bears dinked and dunked across the middle of the field against LAR, and Indy will probably follow suit, but that’s the Pascal, Jack Doyle, and Nyheim Hines part of the field. I predict that Pittman will primarily sees the ball in a few designed plays near the line of scrimmage, but he won’t see very many of those plays and won’t covert them to exceed 50 receiving yards. Hard sell!