Week 2 Team Performance Trends (Fantasy Football)
Week 1 of the 2026 season delivered a ton of fun chaos. Chicago hung 59 points on Carolina. Baltimore ran Indianapolis off the field. Kansas City opened with a defensive clinic against Denver on Monday night.
As far as team performance trends, we now have 2026 data. Not much of it, but some. This article works through what Week 1 told us and what it means for the Week 2 slate.
Offensive Insights
Chicago posted a +0.41 EPA per play, the best mark in football, and scored 59 points doing it. The caveat is large: they faced a very weak Carolina Panthers defense. While it is hard not to be all in on this offense, let’s give them a second week to decide.
The Giants were one of the week’s most convincing offenses at +0.37. Unlike Chicago, they earned theirs against an improved Dallas defense in a huge divisional win. If you were skeptical of New York coming into the season, this was a strong data point against that view.
Jacksonville (+0.34) and Baltimore (+0.32) fill out the top tier. Baltimore’s 41 points against Indianapolis, paired with the sixth-best defensive mark in the league, makes them one of the most complete teams of the weekend.
At the bottom, Denver (-0.34), Atlanta (-0.32), and Pittsburgh (-0.30) all struggled mightily. Avoid starting any position players with these teams in Week 2 before we have a better understanding of what their offenses will shape up to be.
See the full rankings below.
Defensive Insights
Kansas City led at -0.34, holding Denver to 10 points in Week 1. Pittsburgh (-0.32) and Atlanta (-0.30) were close behind, though both came in games where neither offense did much of anything, so read these defenses with some skepticism.
San Francisco (-0.27) held the Rams to 7 points and Arizona (-0.24) held the Chargers to 14. Both look like early streaming candidates.
Carolina’s +0.41 was the worst defensive mark in the league, with Cleveland’s +0.34 not far behind. Those are the two defenses to attack.
See the full ranking below.
Points Allowed Per Touch
The chart below shows fantasy points allowed per touch, by position.
A few things jump out. Indianapolis allowed 4.21 points per WR touch and Cleveland 4.04. This sets up the Bucs and Chiefs receiving core to have strong games this week. Washington gave up 5.92 per TE touch and Carolina 5.75, numbers that will likely regress a bit but flag real Week 1 problems. Look for Jake Ferguson and Kyle Pitts to have strong Week 2 performances. On the other end, Seattle (1.81) and Kansas City (1.86) were stingiest against receivers, leaving Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs as likely sits this week.
Week 2 Matchup Spotlight
Minnesota at Chicago is the week’s referendum. Chicago has a chance to prove their offense is truly legit, and they have to do it against a Minnesota defense that allowed the second-fewest points per RB touch in Week 1 but ranked fifth-easiest against receivers. The path for Chicago runs through the air. D’Andre Swift should be avoided here.
New Orleans at Baltimore is the clearest picture of the week. Baltimore’s offense was elite in Week 1 and draws a New Orleans defense that sat at exactly 0.000 EPA, dead league average, with no positional group standing out as difficult. Start your Ravens.
Cincinnati at Houston sets up oddly. Houston allowed the most points per QB touch in football in Week 1 and the third-most per WR touch, which points straight at Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, despite the two having a slow Week 1.
Indianapolis at Kansas City is the week’s most lopsided matchup on paper. Kansas City posted the best defensive EPA in the league and Indianapolis the fourth-worst offense. Worse yet for the Colts, Kansas City allowed the fewest points per WR touch in football. Fade Indianapolis pass catchers. Conversely, Indianapolis allowed the most points per WR touch of any defense, so Kansas City’s receivers are a strong play.
Pittsburgh at New England is the game to avoid entirely. Pittsburgh’s offense was third-worst in the league, New England’s was -0.11, and both defenses can play ball. Low total, low ceilings, nothing to see here from a fantasy perspective.
Washington at Dallas favors Washington’s skill players. Dallas allowed the most points per TE touch in football in Week 1 and the sixth-most per QB touch, and their defensive EPA of +0.37 was the second-worst in the league. Washington was slightly efficient at +0.06 offensively.
New York at the Rams gives the Giants another chance to prove their Week 1 success was real. The Rams allowed the third-most points per RB touch, and their defensive EPA was +0.179, below average. New York’s offense looked legitimate against Dallas, so Cam Skattebo will be a start in my book in Week 2.
Good luck in Week 2!