NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks: Week 2 (Fantasy Football)
These are upside plays for large-field GPPs, not a complete player pool. Strong tournament lineups often pair popular cash plays with lower-rostered leverage. Use Betz’s Week 2 Cash Plays (here) and DFS Rankings (here) alongside these recommendations to construct solid GPP lineups.
Note: Plays are listed by salary, not preference.
For pOwn, this is from my personal weekly projections sheet (lots of data if you are interested; find me in the DFS Discord).
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson | $7,300 | vs NO
I like getting BAL exposure through Lamar rather than automatically following the Henry builds. Jackson threw for 324 yards in the opener, so there is more to this ceiling than waiting for him to break a long run. We need more of the TDs coming through Lamar’s arm or legs instead of King Henry. The injuries to Zay Flowers, Ronnie Stanley, and John Simpson could hurt, but that will also keep his ownership at bay.
Projection: 21.20 DK points at 5.28% ownership, with a 29-point ceiling.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Jayden Daniels | $6,300 | @ DAL
DAL just allowed Jaxson Dart to rush for 54 yards, and I like betting on Daniels to create similar problems with his legs. Daniels + WAS pass catcher(s) and George Pickens coming back is my preferred way to attack this game instead of following the Dak/Cee builds (which I will likely do for cash). He had five scrambles last week against a stout PHI squad. Hopefully his confidence is back, and last year’s injuries stay away.
Projection: 20.48 DK points at 6.14% ownership, with a 30-point ceiling.
Bo Nix | $5,700 | vs JAX
Monday night was disgusting, but I am not letting one bad game make the decision for me, especially at that price. Nix threw for 352 yards against Jacksonville last December, a reminder that one bad showing does not automatically take the passing ceiling off the table. Plus, he could always sneak in a TD (nine over the last two years). I prefer pairing him with Waddle and betting on DEN’s passing game rebounding rather than plugging in Nix just because he is cheap.
Projection: 18.44 DK points at 4.83% ownership, with a 27.5-point ceiling.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey | $8,000 | vs MIA
CMC can break a slate any given week, and SF is favored by 13.5 against MIA. His confidence in the split backfield with Kaelon Black is concerning from a playing time standpoint, but I am willing to embrace that uncertainty if it keeps more of the DFS field away from him. We do not need every carry to belong to CMC, just enough of the catches and TDs before any potential fourth-quarter rest. He is direct leverage off of the Bijan chalk (40%!).
Projection: 22.20 DK points at 22.61% ownership, with a 36-point ceiling
Breece Hall | $6,200 | vs GB
Hall handled 22 carries for 102 yards and a TD in the opener, and that is the type of workload I want at $6,200. I am betting on the usage we already saw carrying into this matchup. It is good Garrett Wilson is healthy too, because Hall has averaged 15.85 PPR points in 48 games with Wilson playing compared with 13.13 in nine without him, while drawing a target on 26% of his routes versus 14% without Wilson. He is a way to chase a big RB score without paying the premium price.
Projection: 15.54 DK points at 10.23% ownership, with a 28-point ceiling.
Bucky Irving | $6,100 | vs CLE
Bucky looked healthy, and the Kenny G. truthers are in shambles after he matched his career high with seven catches in the opener. That receiving involvement is exactly what I wanted to see, especially when getting a full point for every catch. With TB favored by 8.50 at home against CLE, I like the opportunity for more rushing work to go with those receptions.
Projection: 16.01 DK points at 12.17% ownership, with a 27-point ceiling.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Chuba Hubbard | $5,800 | @ ATL
Chuba reminded everyone why he got paid, playing 71% of the offensive snaps compared with 19% for Jonathon Brooks. I do not expect that to last long, but I am interested in that separation in snap% over chasing another two TD performance. At $5,800, I like betting on the lead role continuing even if Brooks mixes in between 20-30% of plays.
Projection: 14.11 DK points at 6.18% ownership, with a 22-point ceiling.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson | $7,800 | @ CHI
Carson Wentz excites me for Jefferson. In their five games together last season, Jefferson averaged 10.00 targets and 95.4 receiving yards. After zero TD catches from him last year, he caught two in Week 1. The Bears D just let Jalen Coker finish as the WR1 on the week.
Projection: 17.92 DK points at 13.91% ownership, with a 32-point ceiling.
Jaylen Waddle | $6,500 | vs JAX
Waddle is my swing on a DEN rebound, not a play I pretend comes with a safe floor (MNF proved he can big-time bust, oof). Don’t forget, he had 14 catches of at least 20 yards with MIA last season. I prefer pairing him with Nix, where a couple of explosive connections can move both players up the leaderboard with a combined pOwn <~10%
Projection: 13.46 DK points at 4.51% ownership, with a 25.5-point ceiling.
George Pickens | $6,300 | vs WAS
Week 1 was no bueno (fun) for George. But we can lean into a possible ceiling in a might-be shootout. Him and CeeDee both carry ownership, but I do not want FOMO from a game that smells like 50+ points.
Projection: 15.87 DK points at 16.78% ownership, with a 30-point ceiling.
Tee Higgins | $6,100 | @ HOU
Higgins scored 21 receiving TDs over the last two seasons, and the two CIN alpha WRs usually bounce back sooner rather than later. We do not need Chase to disappear for Higgins to deliver a tournament score. Burrow’s back issue is worth watching, but I am willing to take that uncertainty at this ownership.
Projection: 13.43 DK points at 4.31% ownership, with a 26-point ceiling.
Terry McLaurin | $5,200 | @ DAL
DAL let Jaxson Dart complete 79% of his passes in the opener, and I see no reason not to attack that defense now that Malik Hooker and DeMarvion Overshown are hurt. McLaurin is my preferred partner for Daniels, with a salary that leaves room to pay up at RB. I like betting on this passing connection rather than plugging in a cheap WR just to make RB work.
Kayshon Boutte | $4,000 | vs CIN*
*Boutte is conditional on the Nico Collins injury. If Nico is in, I do not recommend this play.
He played 36 of 79 offensive snaps in his HOU debut. This is a bet on big-play opportunity, not a guaranteed target share, and his ownership could climb if Nico is ruled out. Noel and Hutchinson will likely be a cash play.
Projection: 9.17 DK points at 1.79% ownership, with a 19-point ceiling.
Tight End
Trey McBride | $6,900 | vs SEA
Paying WR prices at TE is fine when the name is Trey McBride. He opened with nine catches for 95 yards and a TD, giving us exactly the type of involvement I want when spending up at this position. The field is getting more comfortable with cheaper TEs, so I will pay up to get different until ownership says otherwise.
Projection: 16.05 DK points at 8.27% ownership, with a 29-point ceiling.
Colston Loveland | $5,000 | vs MIN
Still flabbergasted that Mr. Luuuveland gave us a goose week 1, but he still led CHI with 32 routes against CAR. Two targets are concerning, but I am betting on those routes turning into more opportunities rather than writing him off after one game. I like pairing him with Jefferson and betting this game will produce through the air.
Projection: 12.28 DK points at 7.36% ownership, with a 23-point ceiling.
Scott Galvin-Imagn Images
Harold Fannin Jr. | $4,100 | @ TB
Fannin caught 72 passes as a rookie, and I am not erasing that after one ugly opener. I like pairing him with Bucky in builds that bet on TB taking the lead and forcing CLE to throw. His QB play is concerning (get Watson out of the league, please, seriously), but he acts like a WR at a discount.
Projection: 9.68 DK points at 2.99% ownership, with a 17.5-point ceiling.
DST
49ers | $3,800 | vs MIA
Malik Willis took five sacks in the opener, and now MIA heads to SF as a 13.50-point underdog.
Projection: 8.64 DK points at 5.68% ownership, with a 17-point ceiling.
Eagles | $3,700 | @ TEN
TEN did not produce a single offensive play longer than 14 yards in its opener. Until they prove Cam Ward can function as a starting QB, I’ll keep attacking via the opposing DST.
Projection: 9.16 DK points at 6.42% ownership, with a 16-point ceiling.
Ravens | $3,300 | vs NO
Shough threw for 410 yards last week against DET, but he also took five sacks and threw two interceptions. The Ravens’ defensive squad looks stronger than the pitiful DET Lions.
Projection: 8.27 DK points at 7.00% ownership, with a 16.5-point ceiling.
Cardinals | $2,500 | vs SEA
ARI held the Chargers to 14 points in the opener and now gets Drew Lock with Sam Darnold ruled out. I am not calling the Cardinals a shutdown defense, but we need punt DSTs in large field for the savings and leverage.
Projection: 6.00 DK points at 2.28% ownership, with a 13-point ceiling
Last Week’s Milly Maker Winner
No biggie, just needed a ridiculous 273.98 points to win the Milly in Week 1. Winner only had three bullets, too, so congrats (this was the users 2nd lineup so that’s why there is a 2 next to the name). It used all $50,000 and still produced a unique lineup. Combined ownership was 100.69%, compared with a 112.11% field average.
But this one got well outside our featured picks. Gibbs was the only name from Betz’s cash article, while Watson and DJ Moore were the only darts we covered in my GPP article. That leaves six of nine roster spots outside those lists, which rely on heavy pOwn analytics. We aren’t going to catch them all (and will admit it), and this lineup was a good reminder.
The separation came from the combinations. Just 0.06% of entries paired Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and D’Andre Swift, and those three delivered 111.30 points. It is a fun skinny stack with no runback, a mini CHI/CAR game stack, then some random plays.
| Player Name | Betz – Cash Article | Cash – GPP |
| Love | ||
| Gibbs | Yes | |
| Henry | ||
| Watson | Yes | |
| Moore | Yes | |
| Coker | ||
| Goedert | ||
| Swift | ||
| Steelers |
Last Week’s GPP Picks Review
We are all about transparency here, so we review last week’s article to see how many we did. Players must 3x salary to be considered a hit.
| Position | Picks | Hits | Misses | Hit rate |
| QB | 3 | 2 | 1 | 66.67% |
| RB | 11 | 3 | 8 | 27.27% |
| WR | 15 | 4 | 11 | 26.67% |
| TE | 7 | 3 | 4 | 42.86% |
| DST | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25.00% |
| Total | 40 | 13 | 27 | 32.50% |
Week 1, it is super hard to predict what is going to happen after a summer long of priors/biases. The hit rate was super low…but so was most of the industry. We found some ceiling. Watson gave us 6.05x, Montgomery delivered 4.82x, and Kincaid paid off at 4.57x.
But we needed more from the WR darts. Moore was the only one of seven to hit, a 14.29% success rate. Watson helped the overall WR results, but I will get better with more information.
The CIN angle missed. Burrow returned 2.20x, Brown 2.65x, and Higgins 1.41x. Brown doesn’t get a pass because the leverage argument sounded good: he scored 18.80 points and needed 21.30. Getting different is only useful when the replacement delivers.
Comments
Given the milly winner has a (2) next to their username, I’d assume they had at least two lineups in the milly contest.
Looked into this, and that appears as the 2nd lineup that user entered. After reviewing the data again once I saw your comment, the user actually had 3 lineups so I appreciate the comment. I’ll update the article.