Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 2
Welcome to the Week 2 edition of the Expected Fantasy Points & Opportunity article!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. As you might expect, volume is crucial in fantasy football. However, not every opportunity is created equal. A player’s fantasy value will vary significantly depending on their usage and the overall offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take these factors into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is closely tied to efficiency and is subject to regression on a weekly basis.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production by volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with higher usage values (xFP) are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on efficiency (FPOE) may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in Expected Fantasy Points!
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution against investing in too many players who average a higher FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
- xFP becomes more predictive as the season progresses. The more data points we have available, the more stable and reliable the metric becomes week over week.
If you are new to this series, check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- One of the more prominent storylines this past week was the heavy involvement of Kaelon Black and the reduced usage for Christian McCaffrey. As we dig a little deeper, his usage was a lot more encouraging than his production would suggest. Even though he only generated 11.3 half-PPR points, McCaffrey was the RB9 in Expected Fantasy Points with 15.3. While that does represent a slight decline from his career average (17.7), that is still well within RB1 range. It was also encouraging to see CMC’s continued high-volume role as a receiver, participating on 58% of the available routes and finishing with an elite 38% targets per route run. In other words, I am not concerned about McCaffrey’s usage and value going forward. Especially if he was dealing with cramping throughout the game, the fact that he still finished within the top 10 in usage value is a positive sign. Assuming he enters Week 2 healthy, I expect his efficiency (-4.0 Fantasy Points Over Expected) to regress positively, especially against a Dolphins defense that just allowed a top-five performance to Ashton Jeanty.
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