Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Week 1
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether or not they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether or not they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra interesting thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode Undrafted Gems + TNF Preview, Week 1 Hype:
Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Raheem Mostert (RB, SF) @ DET – 70 Rushing Yards
All three Fantasy Footballers bought 70 rushing yards. Mike mentioned that Trey Sermon may be eased into the offense, meaning that Mostert may have a larger role earlier in the season. Mike also mentioned game script as a factor favoring Mostert’s ability to hit the 70 yard threshold, given Detroit’s poor outlook both as a defense and a team. Jason joked that this threshold might be reached in under five carries (or maybe that wasn’t a joke – I am a Lions fan so either way my heart hurts).
I totally agree with Andy, Mike, and Jason. In case you forgot, the Lions and 49ers had a joint practice, and Mostert went for 65 in his first carry against the Lions in that scrimmage. Yes, Allen Iverson, I am talkin’ about practice, but I, sadly, agree that the Lions defense poses little-to-no threat against the vaunted Kyle Shanahan rushing game plan.
I disagree with Mike that Trey Sermon will be brought along slowly; the Jeff Wilson injury prevented any chance of that happening, but it shouldn’t matter. Mostert still probably tally’s 12-15 carries in this game, especially if the game script goes as expected. That’ll be plenty.
As a Michigan boy true-and-true, I hope I am wrong, but I would be taking a lot of the “overs” in any prop bet vs. the Lions this year, if I were a betting man.
Corey Davis (WR, NYJ) @ CAR – Seven Targets
Jason and Mike bought this target volume, mentioning that he believes that the hyper-targeting of Davis seen in the pre-season is indicative of regular season production. The Guys also mentioned that Jamison Crowder will miss the game on the COVID List, meaning that Davis could potentially fill that target vacuum. Andy agreed, suggesting Carolina was no defense to be scared of.
I disagree that Carolina is a push-over defense; they invested high draft capital into their secondary (most notably, Jaycee Horn – 1st round pick in 2021). Still, Davis is the clear WR1, and Elijah Moore isn’t going to prevent that. Davis wasn’t just hyper targeted in the pre-season, he appeared to be Zach Wilson‘s safety blanket. Wilson will look his way early and often, leading to 7+ targets for Davis.
Logan Thomas (TE, WFT) vs. LAC – Five Receptions
We have our first disagreement! Mike sold mentioning that Thomas only hit five receptions four times in 2020. However, Curtis Samuel looks like he will miss the game, which is why Andy bought this line. Jason mentioned that Thomas was a pre-season riser because he was more integrated into the offense than expected, but he nevertheless sold the five reception line.
I agree with Mike and Jason. Historically, Ryan Fitzpatrick much prefers throwing to his WRs than his TEs. In fact, Fitzpatrick throws to the TE a relatively low amount for his career. That doesn’t bode well for Thomas.
Even if Samuel misses the game, Fitzpatrick isn’t going to suddenly change his ways after a 16 year career. He will continue to look to his WRs primarily, meaning Thomas finishes with fewer than five receptions.
Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR) vs. NYJ – 72 Receiving Yards
This is an easy buy for me. The New York Jets entire cornerback room is filled with rookies and second year players, with a rookie assuredly starting opposite Bryce Hall, which was surprising because 2020’s #1 CB, Bless Austin, failed to make the team. That provides an advantageous matchup for all Panther WRs. I like Moore to scorch past 72 receiving yards.
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN) vs. MIN – 279 Passing Yards
I will sell this line. In Burrow’s first game back from a devastating injury, the Bengals play it safe, ride Joe Mixon, and minimize Burrow’s drop-backs. Minnesota is a much better defense than they were a year ago, which Mike Clay correctly indicated by mentioning Minnesota as a Tough matchup
279 yards is a lot of passing regardless, so reaching that threshold on a reconstructed knee, against a stout defense, and with Ja’Marr Chase lacking confidence, I will sell.
Justin Fields- Plays in Week 1
This isn’t really a line, but in Week 1, I thought we would have some fun. The Bears have announced, against their better judgment, that Andy Dalton will start against the Rams. Perhaps the Bears are doing the young rookie a service by not starting him against, arguably, the best defense in the NFL. But Dalton has looked rough in the pre-season, while Fields has turned heads.
I think the Rams run up the score, as Mr. Stafford uses his intimate knowledge of his old NFC North rival to slice and dice the Bears defense. Matt Nagy finally caves under the pressure and gives the rookie a few snaps in the 4th Quarter. Fields never looks back.
Check back in next week! Now, go win some championships!