Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Week 16
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 15’s results:
|Travis Kelce||70 Receiving Yards||Buy||Buy||Buy|
|James Robinson||Top 20 Back||Buy||Buy||Buy||Buy|
|Stefon Diggs||7 Receptions||Sell||Sell||Sell|
|Josh Allen||50 Rushing Yards||–||–||–||Sell|
|Christian Kirk||53 Receiving Yards||–||–||–||Buy|
|Elijah Mitchell||56 Rushing Yards||–||–||–||N/A|
|2021 Results||56% (23/41)||50% (22/44)||57% (25/44)||65% (58/89)|
Despite the craziness that was Week 15, all four of us did extremely well in Buy/Sell. The “worst” performance on the week was a 66% pick rate by Andy and Mike. Meanwhile, Jason and I strove for and achieved perfection.
Travis Kelce broke out at exactly the right time if you somehow survived his recent lackluster play and made the playoffs. I have him in my primary league, missed the playoffs by one game, and Kelce helped my team score the most points in the league in the consolation bracket… Is there anything more frustrating than being the first team to miss the playoffs and watch your team dominate in the consolation bracket? Ugh!
Getting back on track, James Robinson had a fantastic week now that that awful coach who kicks kickers was politely asked to take his bullying somewhere else. Additionally, Stefon Diggs saw seven targets but could only reel in four of those passes, which wasn’t terribly surprising given the expected game script in the matchup between Buffalo and Carolina.
In my bonus Buy/Sell, Josh Allen was indeed limited in his rushing after the ankle injury, Christian Kirk saw nine targets on his way to 94 yards, and Elijah Mitchell didn’t play due to the ankle injury. I don’t get credit for the Mitchell pick, but clearly, the process was right, considering that I said the lead runner for the 49ers would surpass 90 yards rushing, which Jeff Wilson easily did.
We’ve been performing adeptly lately, but let’s finish the season strong!
Week 16 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “Week 16 Buy or Sell + Playoff Push, Permission to Cry”.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI) @ IND – 3 Total TDs
Andy noted that Kyler has had only one total touchdown in the last three weeks, which made him feel like three is a lot for Kyler. Despite these initial feelings, Andy bought because the over/under suggests an offensive shootout. Mike sold because the Cardinals’ offense looked lost without their #1 wide receiver, De’Andre Hopkins.
I am going to sell this one. Surely, Kyler is looking for vindication after losing to my Lions last week, but Indianapolis’s defense is very strong. They recently slowed the Patriots’ offense to nothing, and I think it continues. Indy also has the ability to control the clock by leaning on Jonathan Taylor, which likely will limit Arizona’s scoring opportunities.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB) vs. CLE – Top 15 RB
Andy bought it because the Packers are playing very well. Mike found this line difficult because of the split backfield between Dillon and Jones, but he still bought because Jones saw 63% of the snaps in Week 15.
I will also buy. Jones’ opportunities are low at the moment, but trending in the right direction. I think he finds the end zone again and finishes in the Top 15.
Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF) @ NE – Top 36 WR
Andy noted that the matchup is very tough against New England, but also noted that Cole Beasley will be out and maybe Emmanuel Sanders as well. So Andy “uncomfortably” bought. Mike thought that New England would scheme out Stefon Diggs, but Mike still sold.
Gabriel Davis has arisen in the last two weeks, seeing 15 total targets, three touchdowns, and almost 90% of the snaps. I am honestly shocked that he wasn’t given an opportunity earlier in the season. I will easily buy this line because it’s so low, and Davis is a dangerous threat in the red zone.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT) @ KC – 4 rushing yards
Okay, I am starting to have a little fun here now. Why not?
So this line is hilariously low, for good reason. Ben has had more than zero rushing yards in only three games this season, each time rushing for only five total yards. Ben is so slow, his offensive line is terrible, and he’s far more likely to kneel down at the end of the game than actually rush for 4 yards. Despite this seeming like the easiest line ever to exceed, I will sell.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) vs. BAL- Top 15 WR
Higgins disappointed last week, but his matchup this week against Baltimore is a far better matchup for production. Baltimore’s secondary has been decimated, as evinced by Aaron Rodgers picking them apart last week. I am rolling with Higgins in my dynasty league semi-final matchup, and I think you should too. Buy!
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET) @ ATL – 5 receptions
My eyesfell out of my head when I saw this projection. In the last three weeks, St. Brown has averaged 8.7 receptions per game, with 10 last week! St. Brown has an advantageous matchup against the Falcons and has been integral to the team as of late. Easy buy!