AFC South Fantasy Football Breakdown Recap
This week, the Fantasy Footballers started their divisional previews. We started with the AFC North, and now it’s time to discuss the AFC South. You can catch both episodes right here on YouTube (AFC North / AFC South). Below is a team preview for the Texans, Jaguars, Titans, and Colts.
Looking for full statistical projections for the players on these teams? Be sure to check out the 2020 Ultimate Draft Kit!
Houston Texans
Head Coach: Bill O’Brien
Offensive Coordinator: Tim Kelly
2019 Offensive Stats
- Rush YPG: 125.6 — 9th
- Rush TDs: 17 — Tied-10th
- Pass YPG: 236.4 — 15th
- Pass TDs: 27 — Tied-12th
Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)
- Deshaun Watson (6.12 / QB6)
- David Johnson (4.01 / RB22), Duke Johnson
- Will Fuller (7.11 / WR35), Brandin Cooks (8.05 / WR37)
- Darren Fells (Undrafted)
Player Additions:
- RB David Johnson
- WR Brandin Cooks
- WR Randall Cobb
- WR Isaiah Coulter (5th Round)
Player Subtractions:
- WR DeAndre Hopkins
- RB Carlos Hyde
Offseason Summary:
The story around the Texans offseason in 2020 is largely focused around the loss of arguably the best WR in the game, DeAndre Hopkins. He leaves behind a whopping 150 targets and an amazing rapport with Deshaun Watson. With the trade of Hopkins, the team added former Cardinals’ RB, David Johnson, who was phased out of the offense in 2019. He’ll have every opportunity to resurrect his career in Houston as the lead back, especially after Bill O’Brien gave Carlos Hyde 245 carries in 2019. The other major question mark is how Deshaun Watson will perform without Nuk on the field and with Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb joining Will Fuller on the WR depth chart. An important discussion point and situation to monitor, who will be Deshaun Watson’s new #1 target? Current ADP suggests fantasy gamers aren’t sure what to do with Cooks or Fuller as both players are going nearly back to back in the late 7th/early 8th round of redraft leagues.
Tennessee Titans
Head Coach: Mike Vrabel
Offensive Coordinator: Arthur Smith
2019 Offensive Stats
- Rush YPG: 138.9 — 3rd
- Rush TDs: 21 — Tied-2nd
- Pass YPG: 223.9 — 21st
- Pass TDs: 29 — Tied-8th
Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)
- Ryan Tannehill (12.03 / QB18)
- Derrick Henry (1.07 / RB6)
- A.J. Brown (4.10 / WR17), Corey Davis
- Jonnu Smith (11.10 / TE17)
Player Additions:
- Rookie RB Darrynton Evans (3rd Round)
Player Subtractions:
- OT Jack Conklin
- TE Delanie Walker
- RB Dion Lewis
- QB Marcus Mariota
Offseason Summary
The Titans’ identity on offense is clear as day – feed Derrick Henry and utilize play action. Last season the pairing of Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry worked to perfection. In games with Tannehill starting, Henry averaged 125 rushing yards per game vs. 69 rushing yards per game without Tannehill. Look for Henry to once again be fed the rock consistently in 2020 to set up play action. The only question mark surrounding Henry is the loss of RT Jack Conklin, who is now in Cleveland. For Tannehill, he profiles as a high-end QB2 for fantasy and will certainly be on the streaming radar throughout the year. Important for fantasy players to know, however, is that the home and road splits are quite obvious. He averaged nearly ten more fantasy points per game when playing at home…he opens on the road at Denver. A.J. Brown will look to take a step forward in 2020 after a breakout campaign in 2019. His WR17 ADP suggests fantasy players understand that there will be some ups-and-downs throughout the year. Jonnu Smith provides a late-round TE option with some athleticism. Jason appears to be most bullish on a breakout from Jonnu in 2020, as he has him ranked at TE7.
Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach: Frank Reich
Offensive Coordinator: Nick Sirianni
2019 Offensive Stats:
- Rush YPG: 133.1 — 7th
- Rush TDs: 17 — Tied-10th
- Pass YPG: 194.3 — 30th
- Pass TDs: 22 — Tied-19th
Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)
- Philip Rivers (14.04 / QB23)
- Jonathan Taylor (3.12 / RB21), Marlon Mack (8.03 / RB38)
- T.Y. Hilton (6.04 / WR27), Michael Pittman Jr., Parris Campbell, Zach Pascal
- Jack Doyle (12.05 / TE18)
Player Additions:
- WR Michael Pittman Jr. (2nd Round)
- RB Jonathan Taylor (2nd Round)
- QB Jacob Eason (4th Round)
- WR Dezmon Patmon (6th Round)
Player Subtractions:
- TE Eric Ebron
- WR Devin Funchess
Icon Sportswire/Getty Images
Offseason Summary
The Colts are going to be a very different looking team in 2020, starting with the QB position. After losing Andrew Luck to retirement and being forced to start Jacoby Brissett, the Colts have signed veteran Philip Rivers. How will he look in the new offense, and how will it affect the skill position players around him? For starters, he’ll play behind PFF’s best offensive line in football, so he should have time to deliver the ball to the pass catchers, including rookie WR Michael Pittman Jr. and 2nd-year slot WR Parris Campbell, who missed the vast majority of 2019 due to injury. Worth noting, Rivers has a tendency to target his RB and TE, making the RB group (Nyheim Hines possibly) and Jack Doyle intriguing PPR options in 2020. Speaking of the RB situation, Jonathan Taylor is likely to be the team’s starter at some point this season after they invested 2nd round NFL Draft capital in him, but Marlon Mack isn’t going away. Regardless, this team has the easiest strength of schedule in the entire NFL and they’ve got the best offensive line, suggesting the RBs could be in for a big season on the ground with positive game scripts.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach: Doug Marrone
Offensive Coordinator: Jay Gruden
2019 Offensive Stats:
- Rush YPG: 106.8 — 17th
- Rush TDs: 3 — 32nd
- Pass YPG: 235.0 — 16th
- Pass TDs: 24 — 17th
Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)
- Gardner Minshew (14.07 / QB24)
- Leonard Fournette (2.12 / RB15), Chris Thompson (Undrafted)
- D.J. Chark (5.10 / WR23), Dede Westbrook
- Tyler Eifert (undrafted)
Player Additions:
- RB Chris Thompson
- TE Tyler Eifert
- WR Laviska Shenault Jr. (2nd Round)
- WR Collin Johnson (5th Round)
- QB Jake Luton (6th Round)
- TE Tyler Davis (6th Round)
Player Subtractions:
- QB Nick Foles
Offseason Summary
The Jacksonville Jaguars have Vegas’ lowest win total line at 4.5, but there could be some fantasy value on a bad team. Leonard Fournette is bound for positive regression in the TD department after scoring just 3 TD on 341 total touches in 2019. However, there’s almost no chance he sees the 100 targets he saw last year, especially with the team signing pass-catching specialist, Chris Thompson. Worth noting, the team brought in Jay Gruden, Thompson’s former Offensive Coordinator in Washington, so on third downs, fantasy gamers should expect Thompson to get some run…when healthy. As far as the passing game, it appears this is Gardner Minshew‘s team after the team parted ways with Nick Foles. Last year, Minshew flashed major upside with D.J. Chark, making him a top 10 fantasy WR through the first half of the season. If these can continue to grow together, Chark could smash his current WR23 ADP. Minshew appears to be a solid streaming QB candidate in season-long leagues after posting nearly 400 rushing yards last year. I broke down the importance of rushing yards for QBs in fantasy here. All in all, this team projects to struggle in 2020, but there could be a few bright spots for our fantasy rosters.