2021 NFL Draft Props (Fantasy Football)
The 2021 NFL Draft is just over a week away, and it’s going to be exciting to see where the 2021 rookies land and how it affects fantasy football and dynasty rosters. If you’re looking for detailed player profiles, be sure to check out this page as our writing staff has been scouting this rookie class all offseason, and of course, be sure to check out the advanced player profiles in the Dynasty Pass.
Betting on the NFL Draft is all about following news and finding value on props. At this time of the year, it’s easy to get lost in the weeds with all sorts of news coming out on a daily basis. When it comes down to it, even the most notable NFL reporters and mock drafters are incorrect in predicting the results of the Draft. As a result, embracing some of that variance can be a beneficial strategy and add expected value (+EV).
For more on 2021 NFL Draft props, be sure to check out the DFS Podcast featuring Kyle Borgognoni and me. We touched on a few of our favorite props last week and will be dropping a brand new show this Friday talking all things NFL Draft.
*Odds and lines are taken from DraftKings SportsBook. Lines accurate as of 8:45 am April 20.
Jaylen Waddle U11.5 Draft Position (-112) & Jaylen Waddle to Be Drafted Before DeVonta Smith (-112)
It’s no secret that Ja’Marr Chase is going to be the first wide receiver taken in the 2021 NFL Draft, but Jaylen Waddle could be drafted higher than most think, and I actually think there’s a good chance he goes before his college teammate, DeVonta Smith. NFL Network’s Peter Schrager just released his most recent mock draft, which mocked Waddle to the Cardinals at 7 via trade and Smith to the Patriots via trade at 12. This is notable as Schrager is usually one of the more accurate mock drafters in the industry, but he’s not the first to discuss Waddle going in the top-10.
The NFL loves wide receivers with speed, and we tend to see these players taken high in the NFL Draft year after year. Henry Ruggs (4.27 speed) and John Ross (4.22 speed) are two recent names that come to mind who went earlier than most projected. Waddle is the fastest wideout in this class and a true difference-maker in the open field. Look for a team to jump on the opportunity to add Waddle early.
You know what’s a shame? The spreadsheet bros are really going to pass on Jaylen Waddle
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) April 20, 2021
Micah Parsons to be the First LB Selected (-400)
On the surface, this -400 price doesn’t seem like good value, but the reality is that it’s probably still underpriced based on the likelihood that Parsons is the first LB taken in the 2021 NFL Draft. Every mock you read has the talented linebacker out of Penn State as the first one off the board, and to me this price should be closer to -550 or -600, suggesting there’s still value despite the heavy juice. I discussed this in detail on the most recent episode of the DFS Podcast.
Travis Etienne to be the First RB Selected (+150)
Kyle was all over this one a week ago on the podcast, and I’m jumping on board. Most would assume Najee Harris will go before Etienne, but Travis Etienne features a better skill set as far as catching the football out of the backfield. If there’s an NFL team whose scheme values a pass-catching back, we could see Etienne go higher than some people think. We already have a report that the Steelers will “most likely in the first round, no later than the second” and now Schrager’s mock features Etienne in the first round to the Washington Football Team. At +150, the price is too good to pass up on Etienne going before Najee, and as we saw last year, the chalk RB in the draft didn’t go first. The Chiefs surprised us with Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Round one just a year ago.
Philadelphia Eagles to Take a Wide Receiver with Their First NFL Draft Selection (+150)
There’s no question about it – the Eagles lack playmakers on the offensive side of the football. Outside of Miles Sanders and Dallas Goedert at the RB and TE positions respectively, this offense lacks dynamic weapons on the perimeter. If the season started today, their 3WR set would likely feature Jalen Reagor, Travis Fulgham, and Greg Ward and would easily be in the conversation as the worst starting WR room in the NFL. There were also recent rumors that the Eagles had an interest in trading back up into the top-10, and if they do that, they’re likely coming up to snag a wideout. At +150, this is one of my favorite NFL Draft props this year.