Zack Moss’ 2024 Outlook & the Backup Effect (Fantasy Football)

In a previous article, I talked about the “backup effect” and the transition of backup RBs to starters. I found that high-performing and efficient RB2s often cannot sustain the same pace when they take over the backfield. As usual, there are a couple of new starting backs this season who were previously backups — one of these new backs is Zack Moss. Moss is an interesting case, as he’s had a few stints as a starter (including a long one in 2023), but has never been the guy for a complete season. In this article we will take a look at Moss’s potential as a starter with the Cincinnati Bengals, and if he is at risk of the backup effect.

For reference, the chart below shows some notable transitions of high-upside backups into starters — incredibly high-performing RB2s typically disappoint relative to expectations in their first season as the lead.

Zack Moss Outlook

Throughout his career, Moss has been average when it comes to efficiency. When he gets opportunities, we aren’t blown away, but we also aren’t disinterested. From the chart below, we see that in each of his four seasons in the NFL, he’s stayed relatively consistent with the opportunities he’s seen — he has also done this with two different teams, further showing his ability to produce (at least) average efficiency numbers. This bodes well for his 2024 outlook, since we know historically, backs who are incredibly efficient as a backup usually cannot keep it up as a starter, causing fantasy managers to overpay for them and make season-altering decisions. With Moss, we know what we are going to get.

Last season, with Jonathan Taylor sidelined for much of the season, Moss was given RB1 opportunity (50%+ of snaps) in eight games. In those games, he averaged 16 fantasy points (PPR) and finished as the RB10 or better four times. Keep in mind, however, he did see a large amount of touches in those games — 22 on average. With that said, it is clear Moss is most successful as a bell cow back, which could be an issue with second-year RB Chase Brown in the picture. Moss’ contract only totals $8 million, with $3 million guaranteed. With a long history of injuries, it’s likely that he will split the backfield with Brown. Even further, if he goes down mid-season, it wouldn’t be surprising if he loses the starting job.

Next, we can compare Moss to some of the previous backups turned starters — the results mostly confirm what we have already discussed, being that Moss hasn’t been through the roof in efficiency with his limited touches as a backup. This is a great sign, as we know wherever the fantasy market places him as far as average draft position (ADP) will be a fair assessment of his abilities, and what his production will look like. One slight concern is Moss’ high TD per rush — this shows a bit of TD reliance, which is never a good thing for fantasy owners as other turned-starters with high TD rates struggled in their first season at the helm. This could be a concern for Moss.

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Conclusion

While Moss doesn’t fit the profile of a player harmed by the backup effect, there are other factors that make his outlook less favorable. His need for many touches, slight reliance on TDs, and young competition in Cincy are all factors that should make fantasy owners wary. The Ballers have him as the RB27, and in most redraft leagues you can probably take Moss in the eighth or ninth rounds. He might be a good depth add, but not a guy to rely on in 2024.