Who Should I Take With the 1.01 This Year? (Fantasy Football)

A fun topic for fantasy football every year is who should go first overall in drafts. Most seasons, like last year, there is a clear top option who everyone is clamoring for at the 1.01. Ask your friends who were lucky enough to get the 1.01 how that went for them last year. This year, however, there’s a little more debate around this topic. Depending on which platform you choose, you could see any of the following four names at the top: Ja’Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, Justin Jefferson, and Bijan Robinson. These are currently the consensus Top-4 picks on Sleeper, which is my preferred fantasy platform. At this point in the offseason, there seems to be a substantial tier break after the Top-4, so we’ll focus on these players for this article. In this article, I’ll make an argument for and against selecting each player at the top of your draft before I give my opinion as to who I’d take in that position.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Chase accomplished a feat known familiarly as the receiving triple crown in 2024, which means he led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. If we’re being honest, none of these stat categories were particularly close. He had twelve receptions, 175 yards, and four TDs more than the next closest player in each category. To put it simply, Ja’Marr Chase was the most dominant WR in the league.

It was the best season of Chase’s young four-year career, and somewhat of a bounceback season for a player who hadn’t finished inside the top 10 at the position since his rookie year in 2021. From a fantasy perspective, consistency hasn’t historically been the strong suit for Chase, who’s tended to be more of a boom/bust asset. Last season, though, Chase put it all together, providing spike weeks of 36.3, 49.9, and 38.1 while maintaining an ‘A’ consistency rating on the fantasy footballers website with 76.5% of games exceeding 10.5 half-PPR fantasy points. 

The Bengals return their passing game nucleus of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins for 2025 after offseason contract extensions for both receivers. It’s hard to find much risk in selecting Chase for fantasy this year. The pieces are in place for this offense to go nuts again, but part of their success last year, at least for fantasy, was the fact that they were playing catch-up in so many games. The Bengals’ defense allowed 25.5 points per game last season, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. This resulted in pass-heavy game scripts for Burrow and company, aiding Chase in his triple crown effort. If the Bengals defense shows some improvement or even if they benefit from an easier schedule, having finished last year 9-8, the passing volume could go down slightly.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Barkley was the Ja’Marr Chase of RBs last season, leading the position in half-PPR scoring. He had a chance to break the single-season rushing yards record in Week 18, but opted to sit and rest for the playoffs instead. He still finished the year with one of the greatest rushing seasons of all time, posting 2,005 yards and 13 TDs in 16 games. 

The 5.81 yards per carry was the best of Barkley’s career, thanks to the Eagles’ dominant offensive line and multi-dimensional offense. His absurd 3.8 yards before contact per attempt speaks to the success his offensive line had in opening running lanes, but Barkley deserves plenty of credit himself, frequently turning these open running lanes into explosive, highlight-reel plays. His 17 runs of 20+ yards were second in the NFL behind only Derrick Henry. Of these 17 runs, eight went for 50+ yards, speaking to the long speed and breakaway ability Barkley possesses. 

If there’s a knock on Barkley’s production from last year, it was his lack of goal-line production. His four TDs from inside the 10 ranked 25th among RBs. The tush push is back for 2025, so Barkley will continue to cede some touches to Jalen Hurts around the goal line. Luckily for him, he’s able to score from literally anywhere on the field. With that said, if lightning strikes a little less frequently in 2025, Barkley might have a hard time replicating his 13 TD season.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

A perennial candidate to be the first overall pick, Jefferson enters the discussion as a model of consistency and probably the safest option on the list. Over the past four seasons, he’s never finished lower than WR4 on a points per game basis, averaging 16.6 FPPG over that stretch, including a WR1 overall finish in 2022. His 265.98 points last season were good for WR2, albeit a distant second to Chase’s 339.50.

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Jefferson enters 2025 with a new starting QB at the helm in J.J. McCarthy, his third in as many years. The transition to Sam Darnold proved not to be much of a hurdle last year, but there is risk associated with an offense transitioning to a new QB, specifically that they may not perform well. With head coach Kevin O’Connell’s track record of success and the weapons around McCarthy, I think the probability of this offense taking a significant step back is low, but it’s not zero. If McCarthy steps in and offers Darnold-level production or better, expect Jefferson’s streak of Top-4 finishes on a per-game basis to continue.     

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Rounding out the list is a player who, unlike the previous three options, has never finished first overall at his position. The number eight overall pick in 2023 has managed to rack up 3,350 yards and 23 TDs in his first two years as a pro, and there’s no denying his upward trajectory heading into year three. Bijan finished fourth in scoring amongst RBs last year, but his 18.3 fantasy points per game weren’t far behind Chase (20.0) and Barkley (21.2) and were actually better than Jefferson’s 15.6. 

Robinson offers fantasy managers a three-down skillset that helped him finish second in the NFL in touches last year behind only Saquon Barkley. He hasn’t flashed as much big-play ability as Barkley to this point in his career. As illustrated in the above table, the Falcons’ offense certainly isn’t as effective as Philadelphia’s at opening up running lanes, but Robinson is adept at making defenders miss and creating extra yards after contact. A player as talented as Bijan certainly possesses RB1 overall upside, and his consistent volume gives him as high a floor as any player in fantasy.

Who Am I Taking?

All of these players have elite ceilings and floors, with top skill-position scorers well within each of their ranges of outcomes. So, how do we decide which one to take? If you’re in a league where you can choose which pick you get and you’ve got the first selection (some leagues decide draft order this way, and it’s fun), I’d consider choosing the 1.04 and taking whoever’s left of these guys. If you’re stuck in the unenviable position of having the 1.01, I’d consider who you would like to get with your next two picks at the two-three turn and select a player who complements them. 

For me, this year I really like the RBs in the pick 23-30 range of drafts, so I’m grabbing Ja’Marr Chase 1.01 and looking to come back with a couple of RBs such as Bucky Irving, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, or even Breece Hall with my next two picks. With Burrow healthy and playing MVP-caliber ball, I like Chase’s chances of out-producing his former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson for fantasy this year.

If you prefer the “High-T” approach of starting your draft with an RB, you can’t go wrong with either Barkley or Robinson. I’d lean slightly in favor of Robinson this year due to the receiving volume that I expect to continue with Michael Penix Jr. throwing passes. This one is more of a coin flip to me, but Barkley seems poised for a little bit of big-play and TD regression, while Robinson’s excellent 2024 season somehow seemed like his floor.

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