Where to Spend Late Picks in Your Draft: QBs (Fantasy Football)
The beginning of every fantasy football draft is the same – a little excitement mixed with concentration and a strategy you hope no one will upend. But as the draft continues, or sometimes drags on, we can all admit that our poise and precision can sometimes suffer. So much to the point that sometimes, fifteen or so rounds in, you might lose your focus and just pick someone to pick someone, to end the draft and be able to put the baby down for their nap.
Let us not be so haphazard this year, my friends. Let’s stay focused until the final bell. Here are some late-round players to look for when planting your flag with the last few picks of your draft.
The late rounds are a great time to shoot for upside, picking players that, if they do not pan out in the first few weeks, you can drop without looking back. Rookies can be especially prominent in this description. If you are looking for more rankings and projections, make sure to check out the UDK+ on The Fantasy Footballers website!
Let’s start with the QB position.
Quarterbacks
All of the QBs mentioned here are currently being drafted in the 10th round or later, according to the new ADP comparison tool on the website. We are assuming a 12-team, .5 PPR format. QBs are hard to refer to as a “late-round dart throw,” as many owners simply prefer to draft their starting QB late, using their early-round picks on precious WRs and RBs. If you did choose to punt QB, some QBs listed here might appeal to you as your primary QB, whereas some might see them only as backups. In addition, “later in your draft” for this position will translate as earlier than other positions. Let’s look at some options.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 15.09
Look, I know Kyler is a gamble. We don’t even know when he is going to play this season. Currently, there is no timetable for his return from his December ACL injury, but people are hopeful it’s sooner rather than later. And to be fair, we all know that the chance of the Cardinals being anything besides the bottom of the barrel is not much higher than zero, but Kyler can run, and running QBs will always be desirable.
According to the ADP comparison on our website Kyler is going as the 24th QB off the board in the 15th round on average. On certain platforms, he is going even later; for instance, his ADP is 19.03 on Yahoo. You can draft your primary starting QB in the middle of the draft and grab Kyler late in the game, especially if you have an IR spot to stash him. The Cardinals addressed the protection issue for Kyler in the draft, drafting offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. sixth overall, so when he does return the field, he could stand a chance to be more successful.
Kyler has never finished lower than QB19, with three seasons as QB10 or better, so he has an upside worth a dart throw.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 11.12
Drafting Jared Goff is far from cool; in fact, you might shield your eyes from the computer screen when you do it. But let me explain why you can hold your head up and strongly select Goff. Goff had a bounce-back season last year, finishing as QB10, after a 2021 season where he was QB24. Goff can be difficult because if his pass catchers hit, he could have a great fantasy season, but WR depth past Amon-Ra St. Brown is sparse, to say the least. The Lions now have David Montgomery and RB pass catcher Jahmyr Gibbs, so options do exist for Goff. In addition, they drafted rookie TE Sam LaPorta who will be another dependable set of hands for him. It should be a season where we see if last year was a fluke or if Goff has staying power in Detroit.
Goff had the sixth most passing yards in 2022 (over 4,400), the fifth most TDs, and a solid TD percentage of 4.9%. Remember that Jamaal Williams is no longer a Lion, and he fell into the end zone 17 times last year. If just a few of those became passing TDs, we might not be referring to Goff as a later-round pick.
To be fair, Goff’s performance seemed to vary greatly depending on if the Lions were playing at home in a dome or on the road, but with low draft capital, you might just need Goff to be competent, knowing he could have a much higher ceiling than that.
Slinging it sidearm @JaredGoff16 🎯 @Samlaporta pic.twitter.com/zR5mAflZqm
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) August 9, 2023
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams, 14.11
Stafford did not have a 2022 season to write home about, starting only nine games and losing the rest to injury and a Rams team that was phoning it in. Drafting Stafford late is a true dart throw; the man is getting older, and the years remaining for the Rams to “run it back” are quickly dwindling. However, he does have Cooper Kupp, and in 2021 Kupp and company helped Stafford get to QB5 with almost 4,900 passing yards. In fact, in the ten full seasons that Matt Stafford has played, he has only thrown for less than 4,000 yards once.
If Stafford and Kupp stay healthy, we could see a return to 2021 goodness, making spending a 14th-round pick on the elder statesman a massive hit.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 10.07
Lest we forget the success that was Geno Smith last season? Allow me to remind you. The man we weren’t even sure would have a starting job in the NFL threw for over 4,200 yards, tying with Josh Allen for the 7th most passing yards in 2022. He threw the fourth most TDs and finished as QB5 with a 5.2% TD rate. And now the Seahawks added another stellar pass-catcher in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB Zach Charbonnet, who had 37 receptions in his final year at UCLA.
It seems the crowd might be getting wise to the diamond in the rough that is Geno as he is slowly climbing up draft boards. Still, Geno seems the closest thing to a steal you can get this season at this low draft capital. Even if a regression happens with yardage and TDs, he still stands a solid chance to finish as a top-ten QB. For the 16th QB being taken off the board, I call that the definition of a high ceiling. Snag him before he becomes more expensive.
That 7-11 connection. #GoHawks x @Boeing pic.twitter.com/QFZyagDFL2
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) August 12, 2023
Super Deep Options, 2-QB league consideration: Trey Lance at 19.06 (sigh, 49ers?), Baker Mayfield at 20.05 (Bucs), Jacoby Brissett at 29.12 (Commanders)