Week 9 Underperformers & Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back, FootClan, to Week 9 of Underperformers & Overachievers!
Week 9 was as humbling as they come. The Chiefs, Lions, and Packers were all brought back to earth, while the most exciting games came from a surprising mix of the Bengals/Bears and Raiders/Jaguars. Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford have entered the MVP race, and the 3-5 Ravens have clawed their way back into the playoff hunt. We had an exciting trade deadline, faced another week of brutal injuries, and can now only imagine Dan Quinn’s speech to the Commanders locker room.
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 9 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), the Bell Cow Report, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills)
TPRR: 43%
Stat Line: six receptions (six targets), 101 yards receiving, TD
Fantasy Points: 19.1 (TE3)
Let’s shake things up in Week 9 and talk about our first TE in this segment: Dalton Kincaid.
After an underwhelming season marred by double knee injuries, the former first-round pick was faded at all costs this year; however, Kincaid has quickly elevated his name back into fantasy relevance.
What I love about Kincaid is that he’s driving the Spreadsheet Kings crazy. “This can’t be sustainable!” they shout from the mountaintops. “Look at the snap shares!” they pound their fists. “Regression is coming!” they scream as they scour bar graphs and pie charts of data to support their claims.
But to all of this, he simply responds: “Nay! I am a TE1!”
Kincaid is a prime example of why stats are just a part of this game. Because yes, one cherry-picked stat can tell you he is playing less than 50% of offensive snaps; but another will tell you he led the league this week with a TPRR of 43%.
And both of these can be correct.
Ballers gon’ ball, and Kincaid was a first-round pick for a reason. Sure, he may not be on the field as much as we’d like, but when he is, he is receiving high-quality targets and first-read looks in one of the most explosive offenses in the league. He is currently tied (with Jake Ferguson) for TE5 in PPG this season, and should be a reminder to us all that each season is different, and patience is just part of the process.
Let’s #NormalizeWatchingFootballAgain
For all the Bills fans panicking right now
Here is a highlight of Dalton Kincaid to calm everyone’s nerves #BillsMafia | #GoBills
pic.twitter.com/Co13cOFfYp— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) November 4, 2025
Underperformer: Rome Odunze (Chicago Bears)
TPRR: 8%
Stat Line: zero receptions (three targets)
Fantasy Points: 0.0 (tied for WR97, with anyone on a bye)
In a game that had 89 points, over 1,000 total yards, two top-eight RBs, four top-18 WRs, the TE2, and both of the best QBs on the week, Rome Odunze had zero yards.
That is somewhat inexplicable. But, naturally, I’ll give it a shot.
First, we know Rome came into the game with a nagging heel injury. Now, I am no Doctor, but if I had an injured foot, I would expect it to hamper my ability to jog, sprint, run, cut, and block. But maybe that’s why I talk football from behind a screen these days. Who’s to say?
Second, as bad as this Bengals defense is, there is a name that will be reaching households soon, and that’s DJ Turner II. Turner II is currently PFF’s fifth-rated coverage CB, has not allowed a TD all season and stood tall to the task of removing Rome from this game.
You might not believe it, but the Bengals (!!!) have an absolute stud at CB in D.J. Turner. pic.twitter.com/qfICpHF0UZ
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 30, 2025
Third, he did see an end zone target and was about an inch away from a TD. This would technically be considered a drop, albeit it came on a tipped pass from Caleb Williams (see below). While none of these details show up on the stat sheet, if even this one pass were caught, things would feel a lot different today.
Maybe Rome won’t finish as the stud WR1 he appeared to be early on, but there is still plenty of room to bounce back with the Giants on deck. If you’re still looking to buy in, he probably won’t be valued much lower than he is right now.
Caleb Williams was PISSED after Rome Odunze dropped this touchdown pass.
Who is at fault here? 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/EhCYUUhwc0
— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) November 2, 2025
Bell Cow Report
The Bell Cow is a rare, mythical beast in the world of fantasy football. He is one who dominates his backfield in touches as both a rusher and receiver, displaying an elite skill set and putting the team on his back, à la Greg Jennings.
Overachiever: Chase Brown (Cincinnati Bengals)
% of Team Carries: 73.3%
% Target Share: 29.8%
% Team Yards: 22.6%
Stat Line: 11 carries, 37 yards rushing | 10 receptions (14 targets), 75 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 15.2 (RB8)
Over the past three weeks, Chase Brown has quietly averaged 16.7 PPG, good for the title of RB8. This offense has had a dramatic identity shift since Joe Flacco arrived (what a sentence), and those of us who hyper-targeted Brown this offseason could not be more thankful.
While he didn’t see the end zone this week, the Bengals finally decided to use his receiving skill set, leading the team both in targets (14) and target share (29.8%) against Chicago. Now heading into the bye, this feels like one of the last opportunities to “buy low” on the cheapest piece of this offense.
Samaje Perine is set to miss time with a high-ankle sprain, and sixth-round rookie Tahj Brooks has barely seen the field. We know the floor can be pretty low, but Chase is one of my favorite lottery tickets for this playoff stretch.
The Bengals face bottom-ten rush defenses in four of the final five weeks of the season. Do with that what you will.
Chase Brown in his last two games:
28 touches
205 total yards
2 TD
7.87 yards per carry
37.5 fantasy points (PPR) pic.twitter.com/OsKsiv0gtz— SleeperBengals (@SleeperBengals) October 28, 2025
Underperformer: Brashard Smith (Kansas City Chiefs)
% of Team Carries: 15%
% Target Share: 2.9%
% Team Yards: .02%
Stat Line: three carries, seven yards | zero receptions (one target)
Fantasy Points: .7 (RB60)
We don’t have to stray too far, as Brashard Smith makes this list for the second straight week. Normally I try to avoid featuring the same player; however, this performance was devastating to the Brashard Smith hopers.
With no Isiah Pacheco and a game script that actually favored his skill set, Smith only played on 17.5% of snaps for three carries, no receptions, and seven total yards.
The main takeaway from this is that Smith’s breakout performance against the Raiders was indeed a product of game script. When all was said and done, and the team is playing an actual football game, he simply is not trusted over the established veterans.
That’s not to say he won’t be in the future. There was once a time we were pounding the table for a rookie named Rashee Rice to see more playing time, but at this very moment, he is too difficult to trust in fantasy lineups.
For what it’s worth, the Chiefs did not make any trades at the deadline, which can only be good for Smith.
Starting Brashard Smith as my RB2 this week. pic.twitter.com/PfLjtWVu8N
— cooterdoodle (@cooterdoodle) October 22, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: DJ Moore (Chicago Bears)
xFP: 10.3
Fantasy Points: 21.0 (WR3)
DJ Moore has been one of the bigger letdowns this season, but certainly not this week.
Moore was the main beneficiary of Rome’s absence, putting up a Kordell Stewart-esque performance with 89 all-purpose yards, a 17-yard rushing TD, and a two-yard passing TD.
Personally, I don’t think this was Moore taking back over this WR room, but likely a product of the Bears featuring anyone and everyone that wasn’t being shadowed by DJ Turner II.
With that said, Ben Johnson has been getting more and more creative with his usage and is finding ways to get him the ball in space. He is still a highly talented WR, and one I will be rooting for in the second half of the season.
Just traded for DJ Moore
I’m sorry to those of you who were expecting good things from him this week pic.twitter.com/W425DNJBqn
— Fantasy Philosopher (@FFrealitycheck) October 31, 2025
Underperformer: Bam Knight (Arizona Cardinals)
xFP: 12.4
Fantasy Points: 5.7 (RB34)
As someone who started Bam Knight (and lost by .1 to a stat correction this morning), this one feels personal.
The path was there for Bam. The Cardinals had released, re-signed, practice squad-ed, and reactivated Michael Carter. The Paparazzi had photos of Emari Demercado still living in Jonathon Gannon’s doghouse. The team even came out and told us this was his job to lose. But most importantly, they were playing the Cowboys, who are bottom-five in just about every statistical category. What could go wrong?
Well, none of it came to fruition, as Knight was unfortunately repeatedly stuffed inside the five, and politely re-gifted the job back to Demercado, who admittedly looked great in the second half.
With the Seahawks up next and Trey Benson‘s return looming, any remaining value Knight held has been squashed.
Bam Knight when he reached the goal line: pic.twitter.com/0Tjue3vyRb
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 4, 2025