Week 8 Underperformers & Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back, FootClan, to Week 8 of Underperformers & Overachievers!
National TE Day was celebrated in style, with Oronde Gadsden extending his coming-out party, Tucker Kraft raising his ceiling even higher, and Dallas Goedert vulturing two more TDs (on three receptions) from our beloved Eagles WR room.
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 8 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), the Bell Cow Report, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals)
TPRR: 51%
Stat Line: 12 receptions (19 targets), 91 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 15.1 (WR9)
I don’t love talking low-hanging fruit, but this stretch has been historic.
Over the past three weeks, Chase has seen 54 targets (averaging 18/game), which is the most we have seen in a three-game span in over thirty years.
The craziest part? There is no end in sight.
We drafted the Bengals, knowing they are a fantasy gold mine. They did absolutely nothing in the offseason to address their swiss-cheese defense, and instead spent every penny they could find from under the couch to lock up offensive weapons like Tee Higgins, and of course, journeyman TE Mike Gesicki.
I mean, how could you let that guy get away!?
Meanwhile, Joe Flacco has been slinging guns like prime Clint Eastwood. He boasts the QB7 overall spot since he began commuting to Cincinnati, and until defenses decide to at least try and stop him, Ja’Marr Chase remains the best WR and fantasy asset in the league.
Flacco is shocked Ja’Marr dropped a pass 😂
(he has 14 receptions already) pic.twitter.com/ozxoJaSCYq
— NFL (@NFL) October 17, 2025
Underperformer: Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings)
TPRR: 14%
Stat Line: three receptions (four targets), 26 yards receiving, TD
Fantasy Points: 10.1 (WR31)
The Carson Wentz experience is finally over, and I, for one, couldn’t be more thankful after watching this offense sputter out 164 total yards.
Expectations were sky-high for Minnesota to start the season. With a plethora of win-now signings and a Head Coach that could seemingly turn a mailbox into a QB1, it felt like Super Bowl or bust for this team.
Yet, here we are! 3-4 and at the bottom of the division. Watching Sam Darnold pick apart defenses with pinpoint accuracy. Watching 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers still play at a high level with a questionable supporting cast. Even watching Daniel Jones boost his brand new team to the literal top of the AFC.
It’s fair to ask if the right decision(s) were made in the QB room, but it is also fair to practice patience in these situations. JJ McCarthy is just 22 years old, has dealt with difficult injuries, and we can count on one hand how many NFL games he’s played. It’s a long season, and we’re only now approaching the halfway point.
Anyway, I digress. I wanted to highlight Jordan Addison here because I believe this presents a great buy-low opportunity. While Justin Jefferson is still difficult to obtain in most leagues, Addison has quietly been the WR12 in PPG since his return from suspension. The Vikings are past their bye, and face bottom-10 passing defenses in six of their next nine games. He is the perfect WR2/3, and his situation should theoretically only improve with McCarthy’s return.
In Kevin O’Connell we trust.
Jordan Addison has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game he’s played in this season 👀pic.twitter.com/UudqCNuYuI
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 24, 2025
Bell Cow Report
The Bell Cow is a rare, mythical beast in the world of fantasy football. He is one who dominates his backfield in touches as both a rusher and receiver, displaying an elite skill set and putting the team on his back, à la Greg Jennings.
Overachiever: Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers)
% of Team Carries: 72.2%
% Target Share: 8.3%
% Team Yards: 24.7%
Stat Line: 13 carries, 62 yards rushing | two receptions (three targets), 11 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 8.3 (RB27)
While Christian McCaffrey could (and should) technically be the spokesperson for this segment, we’re all well aware of his role and capabilities. Instead, I’d like to discuss another buy window, with Steelers RB Jaylen Warren.
Despite a difficult first-half schedule, Warren’s numbers have been pretty consistent this year, displaying RB2 numbers almost each and every week. Despite middling recent performances against stout defenses in Cleveland and Green Bay, he has a great stretch of games upcoming, including five straight bottom-ten rushing defenses from Week 11 to 15.
While Warren may not be elite in any category, he has a high weekly floor and carries a three-down skill set that could propel you into the fantasy playoffs. While a difficult matchup with Indy remains on deck, a window has been left open with a homemade pie lying on the sill.
Jaylen Warren upcoming schedule + opponent’s rank in PPR points per game allowed to opposing RBs:
Week 9: Colts (7th)
Week 10: Chargers (16th)
Week 11: Bengals (32nd)
Week 12: Bears (24th)
Week 13: Bills (27th)
Week 14: Ravens (29th)
Week 15: Dolphins (28th)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 28, 2025
Underperformer: Brashard Smith (Kansas City Chiefs)
% of Team Carries: 10%
% Target Share: 0%
% Team Yards: .02%
Stat Line: three carries, eight yards
Fantasy Points: .8 (RB61)
After the RB19 performance in Week 7, Brashard Smith was thrust into fantasy lineups to help teams in Bye-Mageddon.
Unfortunately, this proved to be game-script-dependent, as the Chiefs reverted to the 1-2 punch of Pacheco and Hunt, leaving Smith as an innocent bystander.
However, those of you who are holding out hope may have just hit a JCM-style lottery pick. Isiah Pacheco reportedly sprained his MCL late in the fourth quarter and will likely be out a few weeks, which means immediate playing time for the seventh-round rookie.
While we can fully expect Hunt to remain the early down and goal line back, Smith has just stumbled into the passing down role in this once again high-powered Chiefs offense. Literally every analyst’s post-draft comparison was Jerick McKinnon, and now he will have the opportunity to prove it.
**At least until they trade for Breece Hall (speaking this into existence).
Starting Brashard Smith as my RB2 this week. pic.twitter.com/PfLjtWVu8N
— cooterdoodle (@cooterdoodle) October 22, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: James Cook (Buffalo Bills)
xFP: 9.2
Fantasy Points: 33.6 (RB2)
It would appear the industry faded Cook just a little too hard.
While 16 TDs did feel like an outlier, he’s currently got seven through the first seven games, and is right on pace to match last year’s output. Carolina’s defense has certainly improved in 2025, but it had no answer for Cook or anyone else in a Bills uniform, for that matter. This was none more evident than a completely untouched, 64-yard scamper straight up the gut, midway through the second quarter.
Cook enters Week 9 as the RB4 in PPG, proving to be a steal at his preseason ADP (RB13) so far. We’ve long searched for the second most valuable piece of this offense, but perhaps it was right in front of us all along.
Drafting James Cook in fantasy was the best decision of my life 🔥 pic.twitter.com/o8wUexdFY2
— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) October 26, 2025
Underperformer: Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons)
xFP: 9.3
Fantasy Points: 4.3 (RB39)
Statistics alone cannot portray the level of disappointment Bijan managers felt on Sunday. In fact, I may have to write the creators of this xFP stat, because I’m pretty sure the entire world was expecting about 60.
Everything lined up perfectly for a domination game against a desperate Dolphins team on the brink of implosion. But, the Falcons did what they do, and once again reminded us that they are not to be trusted – or really taken seriously at all.
No, I do not care that Michael Penix and Drake London were unavailable. This was an inexcusable home performance from a team who has a chance to overtake this division, but the final nail in the coffin came from Tyler Allgeier‘s garbage-time TD, which cemented Bijan into RB4 territory in this dream matchup.
RBs vs the Miami Dolphins…
Quinshon Judkins – 84 yards, 3 TDs
Kimani Vidal – 138 yards, 1 TD
Rico Dowdle – 234 yards, 1 TD
Breece Hall – 111 yards
James Cook – 118 yards, 1 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson – 142 yardsBijan Robinson today – 14 yards pic.twitter.com/M2vvLy34aN
— Underdog (@Underdog) October 26, 2025
Better days are ahead, but this one certainly hurt.