Week 7 Underperformers & Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to Bye-Mageddon, FootClan!
If you are here today, then you’re still in contention and have just been granted ample opportunities to make a league-winning trade. I encourage you all to take this moment to scan your league, see who needs help the most, and make them an offer they can’t refuse.
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 7 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), the Bell Cow Report, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals)
TPRR: 48%
Stat Line: 16 receptions (23 targets), 161 yards receiving, TD
Fantasy Points: 30.1 (WR1)
Mike Tomlin called out Browns GM Andrew Berry by name after their in-division trade of Joe Flacco. Although we mostly laughed it off, Flacco did what he always seems to do, bringing hope to a city that desperately needs it and fantasy relevance to teams that need it just as bad.
Not all heroes wear capes, they say.
The #Bengals offense so far under Joe Flacco (2 games):
📈369 total yards per game
📈25.5 points per game
📈98.5 rush yards per game
📈0 turnovers— SleeperBengals (@SleeperBengals) October 20, 2025
Flacco stepped right in as the Bengals QB, starting two games in 10 days, and bringing both Chase and Tee Higgins (WR12) to WR1 finishes in Week 7. The Steelers had no answer for Chase, who saw 23 targets in what became a surprising shootout, featuring a duel between two 40+ year old QBs. You can’t make this stuff up, kids.
Those of you who spent first-round capital on Chase can sleep peacefully once again. With his newfound, old-armed gunslinger and arguably the league’s worst defense, he has almost certainly crowned himself as the NFL’s target leader moving forward.
Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers on Madden when they first joined the league. pic.twitter.com/uDecSDKsQH
— Polymarket Football (@PolymarketBlitz) October 17, 2025
Underperformer: Quentin Johnston (Los Angeles Chargers)
TPRR: 9%
Stat Line: two receptions (six targets), 30 yards receiving, TD
Fantasy Points: 10 (WR29)
If you’ve been with us the past few weeks, this should come as no surprise.
There’s no need to harp on this any more than I already have. The short and sweet version is that the Chargers’ OL woes have ruined the Quentin Johnston breakout season.
Despite 55 attempts and 420 yards passing from Herbert, QJ played a distant fourth-fiddle this week to Ladd McConkey (15 targets), Keenan Allen (14 targets), and even rookie phenom Orande Gadsden (nine targets). The reasoning was simple, but this has all now come to fruition: Until this line can get healthy, Herbert will be forced to hyper-target short and intermediate routes.
I still like the talent and player long-term (assuming he catches the ball), but he’s a sky-high-ceiling, basement-floor FLEX play for the time being.
Can we please talk about how good Quentin Johnston has been this season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/iBXdzDRQ6y
— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) October 19, 2025
Bell Cow Report
The Bell Cow is a rare, mythical beast in the world of fantasy football. He is one who dominates his backfield in touches as both a rusher and receiver, displaying an elite skill set and putting the team on his back, à la Greg Jennings.
Overachiever: Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers)
% of Team Carries: 61.5%
% Target Share: 30.8%
% Team Yards: 62%
Stat Line: 24 carries, 129 yards, two TDs | seven receptions (eight targets), 72 yards
Fantasy Points: 35.6 (RB1)
McCaffrey has still been that dude all season, but he put on a masterclass this week against the Falcons.
Somehow, the healthiest player on this decimated 49er team, McCaffrey, had 35 touches and 62% of the team’s total yards, controlling the line of scrimmage, clock, and ultimately the game. McCaffrey is simply an all-world talent, and with the 49ers (hopefully) getting healthier, it’s very possible that the best is yet to come.
While it’s always difficult to credit one player, there was a noticeable difference in this rushing game with George Kittle back in the lineup. Sure, he may have produced a big, fat zero in your fantasy lineup (tied for TE54 with anyone on a bye, according to FantasyPros), but Kittle is a game-changer when on the field.
He is one of the few remaining old-school, elite TEs who excel as a run blocker, pass blocker, and receiver. While many of today’s fantasy-friendly TEs are used mostly as “big slots,” Kittle has been a top-three fantasy option for the past five years, while consistently ranking amongst the league’s best blocking TEs. He is a dying breed and well deserving of his recent contract extension.
#49ers Christian McCaffrey is officially #3 in receptions after week 7, incredible 🔥 pic.twitter.com/C9qRA4UxKr
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) October 21, 2025
Underperformer: TreVeyon Henderson (New England Patriots)
% of Team Carries: 5.6%
% Target Share: 0%
% Team Yards: 18.8%
Stat Line: two carries, five yards
Fantasy Points: .5 (RB66)
What the friggin’ heck is going on here?
I’m not really sure what to say anymore. The Patriots spent high second-round draft capital on TreVeyon Henderson, but simply refuse to use him, regardless of game script.
Even in a revenge-game blowout (for Mike Vrabel), they refuse to unleash their new weapon. And I don’t think I’m using that term lightly. He truly is a weapon.
Even while sharing the backfield with Quinshon Judkins, he was considered an elite rusher, receiver, and pass-blocking prospect. Colts GM Chris Ballard was quoted after the draft, stating that he “might have been as good a pass-protection back as I’ve seen come out of college.”
Then, on his first-ever touch, he returned a 100-yard kickoff for a TD, and continued to look like a star in the making for the remainder of the preseason. For a brief moment in time, it felt like the moon was the floor for this kid.
Yet, despite losing Antonio Gibson for the season, a 5-2 record, and a 31-13 romping in Tennessee, TreVeyon simply isn’t seeing the field. Rhamondre Stevenson – despite his fumbling issues – continues to dominate this backfield, going 18 for 88 with two TDs this week.
I’m still buying in (and low) on the talent, but at this point, it really feels like he simply does not have the trust of the coaching staff. With that said, they are going to need him at some point, and perhaps that time will come with stout defensive lines like Cleveland and Atlanta on deck.
TreVeyon Henderson so far tonight:
• 100-yard kick return TD
• 18 rushing yards
• 12 receiving yardsThe Patriots drafted a SUPERSTAR 👀pic.twitter.com/xOuqxdXKjc
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 9, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers)
xFP: 10.3
Fantasy Points: 25.6 (TE2)
Pat Freiermuth has become the latest casualty in the Jonnu/Arthur Smith ploy that the NFL has conspired against random TEs. And as if that wasn’t enough, converted-refrigerator-turned-TE Darnell Washington has begun seeing significant snaps as well.
Even with this three-headed TE attack that the Steelers have gone all in with, Freiermuth made his presence known against Cincinnati with six receptions, 111 yards, and two TDs. Unfortunately, despite the breakout, his upside will be capped and unpredictable on a weekly basis, and he will be nothing more than a desperation fill-in for bye weeks.
Good luck to you, Patrick.
We hope the ‘Muth will be Luth oneth again.
Pat Freiermuth : 5 catches for 111 yards & 2 TD’s on 6 targets (Season-highs in catches, receiving yards, TD’s & targets) pic.twitter.com/2cgHdNPDTr
— Lee Harvey (@Sayian_Warrior) October 17, 2025
Underperformer: Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams)
xFP: 13.9
Fantasy Points: 7.5 (RB25)
With a dominant 35-7 showing in London, we almost certainly would have projected a big game from Kyren Williams. Instead, it was the Matt Stafford show, as his five TD passes earned him the QB4 performance on the week. But…
What’s important to note here is that this performance from Stafford was extremely fluky.
He finished the day with just 182 passing yards, with four of his five TD passes (including all three from Davante Adams) coming from inside the five-yard line. This is highly unlikely to happen again, and although Blake Corum technically out-snapped him, game script played a significant part in this (similar to Kyle Monangai‘s performance), and the team did not need its star RB at all in the second half.
The Rams head into a bye this week, but Corum should be back on your waiver radar, and Kyren is a solid buy if you can afford to stash him until their return in Week 9.
Kyren Williams asking Matthew Stafford for a goal line carry instead of another fade to Davante Adamspic.twitter.com/umqu0ohFoY
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 19, 2025