Week 6 Underperformers & Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
Week 6 is in the books, and everything we projected this preseason has come to fruition.
The Giants dominated the Eagles, even without Malik Nabers. Buffalo was embarrassed for a second straight week in prime time. Daniel Jones is the second coming of Andrew Luck, while John Harbaugh is on the hot seat and [Uncle] Rico Dowdle is the most exciting player in the game.
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 6 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), the Bell Cow Report, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Drake London (Atlanta Falcons)
TPRR: 50%
Stat Line: 10 receptions (16 targets), 158 yards receiving, TD
Fantasy Points: 26.8 (WR2)
After years of watching the Falcons misuse their top-10 picks, they finally decided to make up for lost time – all in one game. Coming off their bye, Atlanta chose to feature strictly Drake London and Bijan Robinson in their primetime game against Buffalo.
As it turns out, that was a pretty good plan all along.
Michael Penix barely looked in anyone else’s direction, targeting the Drake 16 times while no other WR made a single reception. We all knew where the ball was going, but Buffalo’s typically stingy secondary had no answers for the stud WR. London ended the week just one point (and a half yard) away from the WR1 overall performance. After a slow start to the season, he has brought himself back into the WR1 conversation, now sitting at WR12 in PPG.
Drake London almost had a last second TD to end the 1st half but stepped out at the 1 yard line 😭
— Novo (@NovoHeat) October 14, 2025
Underperformer: Stefon Diggs (New England Patriots)
TPRR: 15%
Stat Line: three receptions (three targets), 28 receiving yards
Fantasy Points: 4.3 (WR55)
If you looked just at the box score, you probably expected a huge day from Stefon Diggs.
That was not the case, however, and despite looking as good as ever, Drake Maye‘s blow-up game (QB2 on the week) featured none other than back-to-back sixth-round picks, Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas. New Orleans focused on stopping Diggs (as they should have), but Maye distributed the ball well, connecting with seven different receivers and putting New England at the top of the AFC East.
That’s right. I said it.
After back-to-back 100-yard performances, we all projected a huge game for Diggs in this matchup. Despite the letdown, however, I still believe he is a great value and buy low. He had a few big plays called back in this game, and if they hadn’t been, we wouldn’t be talking about him here today (see below).
The Patriots have been surprisingly competitive, but are still projected as underdogs in many of their upcoming games. Diggs is most certainly the best WR on the team, and is going to be needed down the stretch as New England enters the chat for the AFC Playoff hunt.
With very little run game to speak of, New England is asking Maye to carry this team. If he’s able to continue this growth trajectory, it will correlate directly with the performance of Stefon Diggs.
“STEFON DIGGS! JUST MASTERFUL!” pic.twitter.com/t8cvLfZycn
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 12, 2025
Bell Cow Report
The Bell Cow is a rare, mythical beast in the world of fantasy football. He is one who dominates his backfield in touches as both a rusher and receiver, displaying an elite skill set and putting the team on his back à la Greg Jennings.
Overachiever: Rico Dowdle (Carolina Panthers)
% of Team Carries: 78.9%
% Target Share: 20%
% Team Yards: 58.3%
Stat Line: 30 carries, 183 yards | four receptions (five targets), 56 yards, TD
Fantasy Points: 31.9 (RB2)
Rico Dowdle was this close to back-to-back RB1 overall weeks.
And he would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren’t for that meddling Bijan Robinson (shakes fist at the sky)!
With no Chuba in sight, the Panthers let Rico feast on a Dallas defense that has been predictably unable to stop anyone this year. With 34 total touches, Rico accounted for over half of Carolina’s total yardage and gave Jerry Jones yet another reason to question his decision-making.
While Rico’s run has been nothing short of incredible, there is plenty of reason to assume regression sooner than later:
- While Chuba surely cannot reclaim this backfield to himself, he is still a talented back and will be involved more than Dowdle managers hope.
- The Panthers meet the Jets, Bills, and Packers over the next three weeks, which is much different than the Dolphins and Cowboys.
- Rico has 476 all-purpose yards over the past two weeks. That can’t possibly continue. Can it?
Rico Dowdle has more rushing yards in the last two weeks (389) than these RBs have the entire season:
– Saquon Barkley
– Bijan Robinson
– Jahmyr Gibbs
– Christian McCaffrey
– Chase Brown pic.twitter.com/FLv4VcjGH7— Underdog (@Underdog) October 13, 2025
Underperformer: Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers)
% of Team Carries: 39.3%
% Target Share: 6.7%
% Team Yards: 18.8%
Stat Line: 11 carries, 52 yards | two receptions (two targets), 11 yards
Fantasy Points: 7.3 (RB25)
Jaylen Warren‘s return from injury (and bye) did not produce the fantasy results that managers hoped for.
In his defense, the Browns’ front-seven has shut down a lot of talented runners this year, but it’s the underlying metrics I’m more interested in. Warren is undoubtedly the starter on this team, but after Kenneth Gainwell‘s solo performance in Ireland, there was plenty of reason to speculate a 50/50 split could be coming.
Instead, what we get is just a continuation of the decade-long Arthur Smith puzzle.
While the entire universe seems to understand that Warren is the best receiving back on the team, it is Kenneth Gainwell playing most on passing downs, with more routes run and targets in three of four games this season. To supplement that, rookie third-round pick Kaleb Johnson has been a mirage, seeing little to no playing time, making significant and costly mental errors, but somehow gaining six touches this week upon Warren’s return. For those of you keeping score at home, that is the same amount of touches he received when Warren was out.
Maybe it was game script. Maybe they are starting to trust their rookie. Maybe we’re headed toward a three-headed backfield. Maybe it’s Maybelline.
All I know is that I cannot wait for someone to write Arthur Smith’s biography. The world deserves answers.
Guys, watch Jaylen Warren :) pic.twitter.com/jdv27ZOLPy
— Nick Martin (@themicknartin) October 13, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: D’Andre Swift (Chicago Bears)
xFP: 10.6
Fantasy Points: 24.5 (RB6)
In what turned out to be another comical ending in this weird and developing Bears / Commanders rivalry, D’Andre Swift was one of the lone bright spots for Chicago. He proved to be the most consistent player on the field, and the team looked for him when they needed plays most.
His biggest moment was breaking off a 55-yard reception for a TD early in the fourth quarter, but his most impressive plays came even after that. The Bears made the most of a Jayden Daniels botched handoff, feeding Swift on outside pitches, where he continued to churn out chunk gains to close the game. This would inevitably set up Jake Moody for the game-winning field goal and seal the fate of the Commanders.
Retweet if D’Andre Swift just gave your matchup life #DaBears pic.twitter.com/JvLCU8mcAK
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) October 14, 2025
Underperformer: Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots)
xFP: 12.3
Fantasy Points: 1.8 (RB35)
Despite his two-TD performance last week, Rhamondre has not been able to get anything going on the ground this season.
With a season-high of 54 yards (and two straight weeks under 20), this backfield is ripe for the taking, which is why I am still buying low on TreVeyon Henderson.
Antonio Gibson was lost for the year with a torn ACL, and while we simply haven’t seen it quite yet, Henderson is the best and most electric back on this team. With a questionable offensive line and favorable game scripts, look for Henderson to become more involved over the second half of this season.
You literally cannot stop TreVeyon Henderson on a wheel route. pic.twitter.com/inePPeCZqc
— Boston Cream 🍩 (@itsbostoncream) September 14, 2025
Comments
Love this breakdown of the Week 6 shenanigans!
Great stuff here from Nick!!