Week 4 Underperformers & Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
Week 4 was as action-packed and drama-filled as they come.
Jaxson Dart won his first start, but lost Malik Nabers in the process. Lamar Jackson injured his hamstring, but was simultaneously ignored by his medical staff. Jaylen Warren Irish goodbye-d hundreds of fantasy teams, while Bucky Irving received a mystery MRI. Tyreek Hill‘s career may be officially over, and the Cowboys and Packers ended in the most exciting and anti-climactic tie of all time.
While there remains a lot of uncertainty heading into Week 5, we’ve officially got one month of data to apply to your teams and leagues. Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 4 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), Red Zone Rushing, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Drake London (Atlanta Falcons)
TPRR: 40%
Stat Line: Eight receptions (10 targets), 110 yards, TD
Fantasy Points: 21 (WR6)
After a pathetic showing against the Panthers in Week 3, the Falcons brought themselves back to relevance with 34 points and career days from both Michael Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson.
Now, I don’t believe for a moment that the Commanders are true contenders, but Michael Penix bounced back in a big way, setting career-highs in passing yards (313) and completion percentage (76.9%) – and did so by peppering his stud WR: Drake London.
After two straight weeks highlighting Rams WRs (for the record, Puka hit 39% once again), I’m happy to see London come to life with this WR6 performance. The former top-eight pick has all the talent in the world, but has been marred by inconsistent QB play during his young career, featuring a star-studded cast of Marcus Mariota, Taylor Heinicke, Desmond Ridder, Kirk Cousins, and Michael Penix Jr. in just his fourth year as a pro. With Darnell Mooney unable to stay healthy so far this season, London stands to be a target hog in this offense moving forward, and hopefully can reclaim his position as a WR1.
Drake London was moved around the field in Week 4, and WRs as big as him aren’t supposed to cut like him.
Very good player. pic.twitter.com/eJB0XwS7hN
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 30, 2025
Underperformer: Ladd McConkey (Los Angeles Chargers)
TPRR: 15%
Stat Line: one reception (six targets), 11 receiving yards
Fantasy Points: 1.6 (WR99)
Despite the “Jim Harbaugh QBs have never thrown a pass” narrative that casual fans and lazy analysts tried to spew at us the past few years, Justin Herbert currently sits third in pass attempts (149), fourth in passing yards (1,043), second in air yards per attempt (9.4) and is the QB9 over the first month of the season. Yes, he was brought back down to earth this week by a talented front-seven in New York, but he has been lights out for three of the first four weeks.
The difference is, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have never had a QB like Justin Herbert. It is – and was – ridiculous to take decade-old statistics from Colin Kaepernick and JJ McCarthy, and simply plug and play them into a projected Herbert-run offense. Good coaches don’t smash square boxes into round holes, and they certainly don’t run the same offense with Colin Kaepernick as they do with Justin Herbert.
Anywho, where the heck has Ladd McConkey been?
The issue for Ladd hasn’t been his route-running abilities (see below), but it certainly has a negative correlation with the emergence and bounce-back seasons of Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen, respectively. We’ve seen glimpses from QJ before, but his main issue has been drops, and at least so far this season, he has seemingly started to pull that together. Fantasy managers of old would call this the “Year 3 Breakout,” and maybe we were simply too impatient with the former first-round pick.
The only “silver lining” I can think of for the “buy low” mindset on Ladd would be that the Chargers are currently down both of their starting tackles (Rashawn Slater and now Joe Alt), which could force them to lean into a more quick-hit style offense. With theoretically less time in the pocket, the big plays downfield may not have time to develop, and there is a chance that Herbert starts to defer back to his safety valve. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. Only time will tell.
ESPN has updated their pass catching tracking data. #Chargers WR Ladd McConkey ranks 4th in their open score, despite the slow start to the season from a production standpoint. pic.twitter.com/EHgMSPEQes
— Guilty As Charged Podcast (@GACPodcast17) September 29, 2025
Red Zone Rushing
The number of rushing attempts a player receives inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. This metric highlights how often a player is trusted in high-leverage scoring situations, showing who is most likely to be given opportunities to convert short fields into TDs.
Overachiever: Kenneth Gainwell (Pittsburgh Steelers)
% of Team Red Zone Carries: 100%
Inside the 10: four
Inside the 5: three
Stat Line: 19 carries, 99 yards rushing, 2 TDs | six receptions (six targets), 35 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 25.4 (RB3)
With Jaylen Warren a surprise inactive, a lot of fantasy managers were forced to scramble Sunday morning. We can only assume Mike Tomlin was facing Warren in his own fantasy league – but against a presumably stout Minnesota defense, Kenneth Gainwell took his opportunity and literally ran with it on Sunday, marking the best game by far of his career.
While the world held its breath to see rookie Kaleb Johnson in action, Gainwell was not going to give this coaching staff a single reason to take him off the field. He dominated in all facets, specifically in the receiving game, tacking on six receptions and 35 yards through the air.
He will be a very popular waiver wire pickup this week, but with a bye week and an already reportedly healthy Warren, he will likely be relegated back to his previous RB2 role by their next game. Regardless, this was a fringe waiver wire player on Sunday morning, who turned into a fantasy hero by the day’s end. That’s the type of underdog story we can get behind.
Kenneth Gainwell when he’s not playing in the United States pic.twitter.com/VuaQ3DF0MC
— Underdog (@Underdog) September 28, 2025
Underperformer: Kenneth Walker III (Seattle Seahawks)
% of Team Red Zone Carries: 33.3%
Inside the 10: Zero
Inside the 5: Zero
Stat Line: 19 carries, 81 yards rushing | one reception (two targets), 29 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 11 (RB22)
Despite out-performing (110 to 44 scrimmage yards) and out-touching (20 to 14) backfield-mate Zach Charbonnet, it was Charbs who took almost all of the team’s red zone touches. Walker had just 33.3% of the red zone carries and zero carries inside the 10. Meanwhile, Charbonnet took all three carries inside the 10 (two from inside the five) and vultured Seattle’s lone goal-line TD.
Walker is most certainly the superior talent in this backfield, but this split is nerve-wracking for his red zone role moving forward. With that said, his receiving skill set continues to improve each year, and as long as he is healthy, he’s a solid RB2 regardless of the matchup.
Zach Charbonnet’s last 14 carries have gone for 21 yards.
He also has 1 catch for -4 yards
FEED
KENNETH
WALKER pic.twitter.com/gZdkm0lZzY— OTL (@OTLFFootball) September 26, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: Woody Marks (Houston Texans)
xFP: 18.7
Fantasy Points: 25.9 (RB5)
Technically, Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton had better glow-ups this week (did I use that right?) – but those guys are obvious, and rookie RB Woody Marks appears to have officially taken over this Houston backfield.
Marks had 17 carries for 69 yards and one TD on the ground, while taking four receptions (five targets) for 50 yards and another TD. People may be writing off Nick Chubb too quickly (15 touches for 62 yards), but Marks’ skill set better lends to what the Texans need at this point in time.
In an RB-heavy draft class, the Texans showed their hand by trading up into the fourth round for Marks, giving away their 2025 third-round pick in the process. For anyone who follows draft capital as an indicator of success, that’s a day two pick – which is exactly what you’re hoping for in an RB.
Marks has been praised specifically for his receiving skill set, which may favor him over Chubb, given the state of the Texans’ offensive line and the amount of time they have been playing from behind. With no sign of Joe Mixon returning anytime soon, Woody should be the number one waiver pickup in Week 4.
Plus, sometimes there are plays that don’t reach the box score, but guarantee you more playing time:
Look at @HoustonTexans RB Woody Marks absolutely pancake his block assignment 😤 pic.twitter.com/Dq326oGUN6
— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2025
Underperformer: Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints)
xFP: 17.4
Fantasy Points: 9.2 (RB31)
With just one TD on the season, Alvin Kamara is yet to live up to expectations in this new-look offense. It would be silly to expect elite rushing numbers behind the Saints’ offensive line, but his skill as a receiver has made him one of the best fantasy (and real-life) football players over the past decade. Regardless of game script, we’ve expected him to hold a heavy target share in an offense that has been outscored 121 – 66 on the season, but that unfortunately has not come to fruition.
The recent concern for Kamara is that third-year back Kendre Miller has been quietly eating into his playing time, taking 11 carries for 65 yards and one TD this week against a solid Bills defense. While there is still plenty of time for Kamara to bounce back, I think I speak for the entire community when I pray that he’s traded to a contender before the deadline. The Saints are an aging team with no cap space and very little in draft capital, so this move would make sense for everyone involved.
10 targets in the first 3 weeks for Alvin Kamara.
Why?!
One of the top pass catching RBs in the league, yet his ceiling is being crushed by this lack of usage!
Lets get this man off the Saints and on a contending team please 🙏🏼 pic.twitter.com/euoERXenlB
— Matt FF Dynasty 🏈 (@MattFFDynasty) September 24, 2025
Comments
I laughed at the irish goodbye joke all the way through this article. Always greatness from Nick!