Week 2 Underperformers and Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
Every once in a while, we are presented with fantasy football’s version of “Bizarro World.”
A world where Wan’Dale Robinson (WR5), Hunter Renfrow (WR7), and Troy Franklin (WR9) all finish in the top-10. A world where Derrick Henry (RB58) is outscored by Dylan Laube (RB54), and Javonte Williams finishes as a top-five RB for the second straight week. Where Russell Wilson (QB2), Daniel Jones (QB7), Mac Jones (QB9), and Spencer Rattler (QB10) propel themselves into QB1s, while we are left staring at our projections, wondering what went wrong.
Yet, while it’s frustrating to predict as an analyst and writer, this is the reason we love this game. There is a human element that will always remain unpredictable, and allows us to watch our heroes get humbled and root for that heroic underdog story.
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 2 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), Red Zone Rushing Statistics, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Davante Adams (Los Angeles Rams)
TPRR: .43
Stat Line: six receptions (12 targets), 106 receiving yards, one TD
Fantasy Points: 22.6 (WR9)
After a quiet opener versus the Texans, Davante Adams picked up right where he left off last season.
While Puka Nacua posted an elite .35 TPRR in his own right (27.3% target share), it was Davante dominating the team in passing situations, including five endzone targets on the week. With 12 targets in total, Davante saw a 36.4% target share, solidifying both of these WRs as certified target hogs.
After just two weeks with his new team, Davante ranks in the top five in both targets and target share. He is a perfect complement to Puka, and his rapport with Matthew Stafford is only at a foundational level. The Rams hold an NFC Championship rematch in Philadelphia next week – and although we don’t love the matchup, we shouldn’t be surprised to see both of these receivers with 8-10 targets again.
Stafford to Adams to extend the Rams lead!
LARvsTEN on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/2fsUtcchew
— NFL (@NFL) September 14, 2025
Underperformer: George Pickens (Dallas Cowboys)
TPRR: .15
Stat Line: five receptions (eight targets), 68 receiving yards, one TD
Fantasy Points: 22.6 (WR14)
At first glance, most would probably be excited to see eight targets and a WR14 finish for George Pickens.
However, if you look a little deeper, you’ll also find that Pickens’ TPRR ranked at a lowly .15 in Week 2. His 15.4% target share finished below the likes of Hunter Renfrow, Dyami Brown, Tyquan Thornton, and many more you likely wouldn’t consider starting in standard leagues.
Despite the low TPRR, I like what I saw from Pickens this week. He showed up when the team needed him, and displayed the confident, sure-hands we’ve come to recognize over the past few years. I do believe Pickens is still ascending in this offense, but with 52 pass attempts and a 93% route participation rate, we’d still like to see his target share increase over the coming weeks.
call it what it is here.
OT, 37-37 tie game, 2:00 to play, deep in your own territory.
the balls on Dak Prescott to stand in there and deliver this dot to George Pickens for a critical chunk play.
two plays later, Prescott scrambles for 14 yards to allow Brandon Aubrey to… pic.twitter.com/tQuH2UM63g
— Patrik [No C] Walker (@VoiceOfTheStar) September 15, 2025
Red Zone Rushing
The number of rushing attempts a player receives inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. This metric highlights how often a player is trusted in high-leverage scoring situations, showing who is most likely to be given opportunities to convert short fields into TDs.
Overachiever: JK Dobbins (Denver Broncos)
% of Team Red Zone Carries: 100%
Inside the 10: four
Inside the 5: three
Stat Line: 14 carries, 76 yards rushing, one TD | one reception (two targets), nine yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 15 (RB15)
One of the last RBs to be signed in free agency has become one of the biggest steals over the first two weeks of the season. While RJ Harvey was being drafted as RB21 (according to FantasyPros) and several rounds earlier, JK Dobbins was being left for dead at RB37. Over the first two weeks of the season, he has taken the bellcow role in this offense and literally run with it.
Dobbins had four carries inside the 10 this week, while no other back received a single red zone touch. This holds relevance as well because while Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts commonly vulture red zone opportunities from their respective RBs, Bo Nix has not had a single rush attempt inside the 10 over the first two weeks. Dobbins handled 58% of the backfield touches this week, with RJ Harvey (32%) and Tyler Badie (23%) splitting the passing down work.
Dobbins lacks the explosiveness he carried several lower body injuries ago, but he still possesses the vision and three-down skill set that Sean Payton has obviously come to admire. I do expect this timeshare to creep in favor of Harvey as the season goes on, but behind PFF’s second-ranked offensive line, Dobbins (RB11) could not have been put in a better situation to start the 2025 season.
All 3 JK Dobbins goal-line opportunities came on separate drives that Harvey was playing on. Pretty clear roles until proven otherwise. pic.twitter.com/OpN7vvsqZO
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 15, 2025
Underperformer: Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens)
% of Team Red Zone Carries: 66.7%
Inside the 10: one
Inside the 5: one
Stat Line: 11 carries, 23 yards
Fantasy Points: 2.3 (RB58)
Welp, folks. We’ve finally hit the decline of Derrick Henry.
JK. Obviously. He will literally never get old.
These NFC North games are always ugly and unpredictable, and this one proved to be no different. The Browns’ front-seven is the strength of their team, and despite what the scoreboard shows, they certainly did their job by holding the Ravens to 45 total rushing yards.
Unfortunately for Cleveland, Lamar did what Lamar does, putting the team on his back and elevating seemingly every player on their depth chart. While Zay Flowers had a solid day (seven receptions for 75 yards), Mark Andrews was held to one catch for two yards, and it was a combination of Tez Walker (2), DeAndre Hopkins (1), and Tylan Wallace (1) putting together Lamar’s four passing TDs.
Better days are ahead for the King. Winter is coming.
Generational players don’t age like an average player.
Derrick Henry is a generational player. pic.twitter.com/gDCHcjRwXo
— Cole Jackson (@ColeJacksonFB) September 11, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: Wan’Dale Robinson (New York Giants)
xFP: 14.7
Fantasy Points: 24.2 (WR5)
This one feels pretty self-explanatory.
Wan’Dale has made his living under the radar after finishing 13th in receptions in 2024. He’s got to be the only WR in history to see 140 targets in a season and remain undrafted in fantasy.
The problem for Wan’Dale has never been talent, but his usage in a low-scoring offense. His 4.8 aDOT in 2023 ranked 106th among pass catchers and served as a primary reason he was unable to surpass even 700 yards last year.
For whatever reason, Brian Daboll decided to unleash our boy in this absolutely electric game on Sunday, peppering him with 10 targets (24.4% target share), an aDOT of 17.0, and three deep receptions – matching the total for his entire career.
Wan’Dale Robinson career game v. Cowboys
8 catches 142 yards 1 TD-197 yards in 2025, 6th in NFL
-career high in yards
-2nd 100 yard game, 1st since rookie season
-3 deep catches matches career total! pic.twitter.com/SPwzoOwHvx— Giants Nation Show (@GiantsNationPod) September 15, 2025
Underperformer: Chase Brown (Cincinnati Bengals)
xFP: 18.7
Fantasy Points: 8.5 (RB34)
What was projected as a dream matchup quickly turned into a nightmare for the Bengals, and Chase Brown was caught with sleep paralysis.
Brown was unable to get much going on the ground or through the air on Sunday, well underperforming his expectation with an RB34 finish on the week. Things did not improve when Toe Burrow was taken out of the game (and has subsequently been placed on IR), which will presumably be a hit for every player in this offense.
What remains promising for Brown’s fantasy value is that not a single other back received a touch in this game, cementing his continued bell cow role in an offense that is essentially guaranteed to be playing from behind. Jake Browning is obviously not Joe Burrow, but we’ve seen competent play before, and this team may need to rely on Brown for explosive plays if they want to hold any sort of relevance in another (presumably) lost season.
Chase Brown is averaging 3.7 yards per carry over his last 7 games.
He has 37 carries for 90 yards this season 😬 pic.twitter.com/cguqrypgiU
— Underdog (@Underdog) September 15, 2025
Comments
Love the seinfeld .gif lol
Thanks brother! I thought I might be dating myself a bit with that one.