Week 15 Underperformers & Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
Congratulations, FootClan!
Whether you are in a 10 or 12-team league, you have officially made it to the playoffs. The season-long grind has brought you to this point, and it is up to the Fantasy Gods to decide now.
The players we will discuss over the next two weeks will either be your biggest heroes or your greatest disappointments. They will either be the players you love for the rest of their career, or names you will avoid for eternity. They will either be the jerseys plastered in your man (or woman) cave, or become your mom’s favorite player. Only time will tell.
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 15 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), the Bell Cow Report, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TPRR: 38%
Stat Line: six receptions (12 targets), 132 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 16.2 (WR12)
Mike Evans balled out in his return from injury, leading the team with 132 yards on a whopping 12 targets.
He looked nothing like a 32-year-old fresh off a broken collarbone, stepping right back in as Baker’s favorite target, and wasting no time posting his first WR1 finish of the season.
Evans will unfortunately not extend his Hall of Fame streak of 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons, but he looks like he will still have plenty in the tank heading into 2026. If you’ve somehow survived this far with him on your bench, you’ve got a locked-and-loaded WR2, with favorable remaining matchups against the Panthers and Dolphins.
MIKE EVANS WITH A HALL OF FAME MOSSED CATCH.
😱
The GOAT is back. pic.twitter.com/bST02DcFCj
— MLFootball (@MLFootball) December 12, 2025
Underperformer: Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)
TPRR: 15%
Stat Line: two receptions (four targets), 26 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 3.6 (WR72)
Jaylen Waddle‘s stellar second half of the season fell short against Pittsburgh on Monday.
The Steelers rightfully focused on stopping him and De’Von Achane, allowing Darren Waller to continue his comeback tour with 66 yards, two TDs, and the TE3 title on the week.
While Waddle’s performance was certainly discouraging, neither the weather nor the play of Tua Tagovailoa helped his case. Tua is now 0-8 in games under 40 degrees, and Head Coach Mike McDaniel did not hold back his opinion after the game: “I think the QB play last night was not good enough, and so for me, everything’s on the table.”
Spoken like a true coach (trying to save his job).
Waddle’s four targets were tied for his lowest this season, and his 26 yards were his second-lowest. His immediate resurgence was impressive after Tyreek Hill‘s departure, but over the past month, he has averaged just 42 receiving yards/game, which is simply not good enough – in real life or in fantasy. With dream matchups against the Bengals and Bucs upcoming, you should be starting Waddle, but it’s hard to do so with confidence.
TUA PICKED!
Asante Samuel Jr. wins the jump ball over Jaylen Waddle ‼️
(via @steelers)pic.twitter.com/MSLjhQkqhc
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 16, 2025
Bell Cow Report
The Bell Cow is a rare, mythical beast in the world of fantasy football. He is one who dominates his backfield in touches as both a rusher and receiver, displaying an elite skill set and putting the team on his back, à la Greg Jennings.
Overachiever: Tony Pollard (Tennessee Titans)
% of Team Carries: 70.6%
% Target Share: 6.9%
% Team Yards: 36.6%
Stat Line: 14 carries, 104 yards rushing, TD | one reception (two targets), eight yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 17.7 (RB9)
Tony Pollard has been a workhorse recently, posting top-10 numbers in back-to-back weeks, and doing so (from your bench) in difficult matchups.
Pollard shredded the Browns to the tune of 161 yards and two TDs last week, following that up with 112 yards and another score in a negative game script against San Francisco. Despite Tyjae Spears waiting in his shadow for years now, this team (and multiple coaching staffs) have shown no desire to move on from Pollard.
His surroundings have done him no favors, but Pollard has been a steady volume play this season. He has stayed healthy all season, seen 10+ touches in every game but one, and is currently ranked RB24 with a preseason ADP of RB25. He’s got a terrible matchup with the Chiefs in Week 16, but should be a great FLEX play against the Saints in Championship week.
I’d expect the Titans to move on from Pollard as they begin their rebuild this offseason, which should only be a positive for his fantasy value.
Tony Pollard 65-yard TOUCHDOWN.
TENvsCLE on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/UZ9c5ifvfN
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
Underperformer: Jaylen Wright (Miami Dolphins)
% of Team Carries: 6.3%
% Target Share: 3.6%
% Team Yards: 3.9%
Stat Line: one carry, two yards rushing | one reception (one target), nine yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 1.6 (RB67)
The second underperforming Miami Jaylen this week. What are the odds!?
I doubt many people had Wright in their playoff lineups, but I, for one, was curious how this split would look after his impressive 100-yard performance last week.
The drumbeat held steady for over a year, and the time was finally here. With Achane sidelined to a rib injury, Wright was given the reins to the backfield, resulting in 24 carries for 107 yards and one TD.
We’ve seen flashes from Wright (mostly in the 2024 preseason), and it was hard not to buy into the Day Two draft capital this team used to trade up for him last year. He was having a great preseason by all accounts until an injury essentially cost him his job to rookie sixth-round pick Ollie Gordon. Since then, Wright has remained virtually silent until last week, when he dominated touches and averaged 4.5 YPC against the Jets.
But with Achane back at full health, Wright was sent back to the bench. There was no competition whatsoever, as Mike McDaniel knows his best chance to keep his job is to feed De’Von Achane at all costs. He unfortunately carries no fantasy relevance with a healthy Achane, but at just 23 years old, Wright will be a sleeper candidate once again for the 2026 season.
Jaylen Wrights day! Man it was so nice to see him run for 107 and a touchdown. Looks like the guy we drafted.
Achane, Wright and Ollie is a very good trio! Any one of them lines up behind the Oline they are making room for some yards. Run game is rolling right now pic.twitter.com/nWgwxiUv0P— Jared (@dolphinmanjared) December 10, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: TreVeyon Henderson (New England Patriots)
xFP: 11.4
Fantasy Points: 29.1
In one of the most exciting games of the week (albeit a tough one as a Patriots fan), TreVeyon Henderson showed the exact explosiveness that earned him early second-round draft capital (two spots below our underperformer, actually).
The best play of the game came in the third quarter. The Patriots could not move the ball at all in the second half, and TreVeyon took a pitch to the right side into a wall of linemen. A play that looked like it may be over changed quickly, as he switched direction, planted his foot, and took off down the left sideline for a TD. The play itself most likely overshadowed the hustle and downfield blocking of Drake Maye, but this is what we were being deprived of over the first half of the season.
Since Week 8, Henderson has been the RB6 in PPG. With the Ravens and Jets on deck (and home-field advantage on the line), TreVeyon could prove to be a league winner in 2025.
TREYVEON HENDERSON OMG pic.twitter.com/BaYjhSvkNI
— PatsSZN🔴 (@NewEraPatriots_) December 14, 2025
Underperformer: Quinshon Judkins (Cleveland Browns)
xFP: 11.1
Fantasy Points: 3.2 (RB53)
Quinshon Judkins‘ rookie season has been nothing short of tremendous, given his circumstances. The early second-round pick walked onto the field in Week 3 and immediately showed he belongs in this league. Dynasty managers should be ecstatic with what they’ve seen, and he was a steal to redraft managers who took a shot at his RB35 ADP.
Unfortunately, the first week of the fantasy playoffs is a tough time to have a down week. Playing in Chicago in frigid weather (you could literally see every breath), one would expect Judkins to be fed. Unfortunately, Ben Johnson knew that as well, as the Bears sold out to stop the run and forced Cleveland to rely on the play of Shadeur Sanders. Let’s just say this worked pretty well in this 31-3 romp.
As good players do, Judkins has outperformed his situation all year. He has been game script proof for most of the season, coming in at RB23 in PPG, despite almost always playing from behind. With the Bills and Steelers on deck, Judkins should be a mid-RB2 for the remainder of the season.
The Browns run game is a wreck, and I’ve seen people question whether Quinshon Judkins is as good as we thought earlier in the season.
Here’s the answer.
Judkins’ yards before contact per attempt (YBC/Att) is 1.4 on the season.
That means, on average, Judkins is only… pic.twitter.com/DWZFKSCX5d
— The Dawgs – A Cleveland Browns Podcast (@thedawgspodcast) December 16, 2025
Thank you all for being here, and best of luck in your upcoming playoffs!