Week 14 Underperformers & Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
December is upon us, and with the weather comes a shift in the NFL.
The teams that currently hold the throne(s) are not who we projected preseason, while the perennial juggernauts like the Lions (50%), Ravens (33%), and Chiefs (10%) all stare off in disbelief. There is still time for things to change, but it looks like this does not portray confidence:
Travis Kelce looks like he’s about to cry on the sidelines.
All he has done in his NFL career, the championships, the records… and also: the retirement rumors, is this it? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/hjmm0T6MQs
— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) December 8, 2025
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 14 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), the Bell Cow Report, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Michael Wilson (Arizona Cardinals)
TPRR: 40%
Stat Line: 11 receptions (16 targets), 142 receiving yards, two TDs
Fantasy Points: 31.7 (WR2)
Michael Wilson‘s reign of fantasy terror continues, as he officially stamps himself the WR1 over the past month.
Wilson has shown flashes in his young career, but never even remotely to this level. As a third-round pick in 2023, he has gradually ascended each season, earning 58, 71, and now 94 targets this year – with four games to go.
This is what we old folks used to call the “Year 3 Breakout.” In today’s game, however, we just left him for dead. Undrafted. Deep league waiver stash, at best.
Kudos to him for proving us wrong.
There are a number of dominoes that have fallen in Wilson’s favor to reach this point. Kyler Murray‘s injury opened the door for Jacoby Brissett (can’t believe I’m using that as a positive). James Conner and Trey Benson‘s injuries left them with a rotating cast at RB3. But most importantly, Marvin Harrison Jr‘s injury vaulted him into the WR1 role in this offense. Compound that with a defense ranked 26th in PPG allowed, and you’ve got the perfect fantasy storm.
Well, what you’ve actually got is just what we all expected from Marvin Harrison Jr.
Wilson has seen over 15 targets in three of the last four games. His elite performances may come back to earth this week against Houston, but if you can survive that, he presents league-winning upside against the Falcons, followed by the Bengals in Championship Week.
Retweet if you’re riding Michael Wilson to a fantasy championship 🏆 pic.twitter.com/JlaNYCcHCC
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) December 7, 2025
Underperformer: DJ Moore (Chicago Bears)
TPRR: 8.6%
Stat Line: one reception (three targets), -4 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: .1 (WR100)
DJ Moore has underperformed for most of this year, but this performance was especially abysmal.
Even without Rome Odunze, Moore was (tied for) fourth on the team in targets and eighth in receiving yards. Sure, this was a tough divisional matchup against the Packers, but those are the games you expect your superstar, highest-paid players to step up.
This team and offense have been everything we could have hoped for in year one of the Ben Johnson experience; however, Moore’s contribution can mostly be attributed to wind sprints. It is clear he has fallen out of (if he was ever even in) the Coach’s favor, but given his contract, it will be a tough path for this Bear to move on this offseason. His recent extension has him locked in at a $28 million cap hit each of the next two seasons, without a clear “out” until 2028. This will be an interesting storyline, as Rome, Colston Loveland, and now Luther Burden all seem to be ascending in this young offense.
Moore is currently WR40 in PPG this season, averaging just 7.9, with only three games above 10 points this year. It has already been a devastating season, and with Cleveland and Green Bay on deck (and the potential return of Rome), things aren’t looking up anytime soon.
Over their last 5 games played:
Luther Burden III – 224 yards on 17 catches
Colston Loveland – 201 yards on 18 catches (2 TDs)
Rome Odunze – 188 yards on 13 catches (1 TD)
DJ Moore – 95 yards on 9 catches pic.twitter.com/KaxNaotjC1
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 8, 2025
Bell Cow Report
The Bell Cow is a rare, mythical beast in the world of fantasy football. He is one who dominates his backfield in touches as both a rusher and receiver, displaying an elite skill set and putting the team on his back, à la Greg Jennings.
Overachiever: Woody Marks (Houston Texans)
% of Team Carries: 83.9%
% Target Share: 9.7%
% Team Yards: 28.4%
Stat Line: 26 carries, 68 yards | two receptions (three targets), eight yards, TD
Fantasy Points: 14.6 (RB14)
Jo’Quavious Dequane Marks (his real name) was already establishing this backfield for himself, but Nick Chubb‘s injury solidified that on Sunday.
It wasn’t an efficient outing by any means, but Marks handled 83.9% of the backfield carries and scored his lone TD on a wide-open red zone reception from CJ Stroud. Woody may have had a second score as well, but his only ceded touches (including a TD to Dare Ogunbowale) came after an injury at the Chiefs’ five-yard line. He was able to return to the game, however, showing a toughness I’m certain will be coveted by Demeco Ryans and Co.
Marks is not a world beater, but this regime traded a future day two pick to move up for him (in a stacked RB class), signifying how valuable they view his skill set. We are still waiting on news from Chubb’s injury, but assuming full health, Jo’Quavious is a lock for 15-18 touches against Arizona in the first week of playoffs.
I didn’t realize the CJ Stroud TD pass to Woody Marks was a one-legged jump pass 🔥
“Great play by 7! Great Play!”
🎥@NFLFilms pic.twitter.com/YaEfnmFZMl
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) December 10, 2025
Underperformer: Bhayshul Tuten (Jacksonville Jaguars)
% of Team Carries: 6.3%
% Target Share: 0.0%
% Team Yards: .01%
Stat Line: two carries, five yards rushing (one lost fumble)
Fantasy Points: -1.5 (RB112)
Bhayshul Tuten had an outing to forget this week.
With a lost fumble (on two touches), Tuten was sent to the bench, where he could get a nice, clean view of Travis Etienne‘s 82-yard, two TD (RB4) performance. In his defense, he was evaluated for a concussion and cleared to play, but the coaching staff felt no need to push their luck with their fourth-round pick.
Tuten has played well in his supporting role, but unfortunately for those who projected him above Etienne, he is still very clearly the backup in this offense.
In the five weeks prior to this, he was averaging nine touches/game, scoring three TDs over that span. With a playoff window clearly in sight, it will be interesting to see how Liam Coen deploys this backfield next week.
Bhayshul Tuten played two (2) snaps on offense. He didn't play again after a fumble heading into half time. Just special teams.
Meanwhile, Travis Etienne has been a top-12 RB in 5-of-6 games since their bye week with the Jaguars offense clicking in general. pic.twitter.com/7V68VTs9Ur
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 8, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams)
xFP: 18.8
Fantasy Points: 32.2 (WR1)
Davante Adams might just be the greatest vulture of all time, but the pendulum has finally swung back to Puka, who just posted the highest single-game PFF grade of all time.
He was an unstoppable force in Arizona, catching anything and everything thrown his way. The more I watch him play, the more amazed I am that the entire NFL absolutely whiffed on draft day, letting him slide to the fifth round before the Rams scooped him up.
The combination of him and Adams is something this team has been trying to create for years. Credit to the Rams for building arguably the most complete team in the NFL, and this WR core is doing everything in their power to give Matthew Stafford the MVP trophy.
Puka Nacua posted the HIGHEST PFF WR grade EVER vs. Arizona (97.4)
Where does he rank among top WR's? #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/4J4gF73vUM
— LAFB Network (@LAFBNetwork) December 9, 2025
Underperformer: AJ Brown (Philadelphia Eagles)
xFP: 27.4
Fantasy Points: 13 (WR16)
AJ Brown‘s third-straight 100-yard game could have and should have been so much more.
Several drops (albeit difficult catches) had the potential to change this game, but he was unable to make any of the plays we’ve grown accustomed to him making. What also won’t show up on the box score was a second-half TD that was caught, however, called back by a penalty.
Although it hasn’t helped the Eagles in real life, you’ve got to be encouraged for fantasy purposes. He’s seen double-digit targets in each of the past four games, and with the Raiders, Commanders, and Bills on deck, I’m expecting Sirianni to bring some tone-setting football back to Philadelphia.
I also can’t help but notice that the Eagles have lost three straight games amidst his recent rise. Interesting correlation.
AJ Brown after crying all season about targets… pic.twitter.com/RBrQes78kW
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) December 9, 2025
Thank you all for being here!
If you’re still here, then best of luck in your upcoming playoffs!