Week 10 Underperformers & Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
Fantasy football is like riding a roller coaster.
Sometimes, you start your Sunday in a wonderful mood, watching Jonathan Taylor and Drake London carry your team to what will be a sure victory. Right?
Then, before you know it, one Garrett Wilson, Dalton Kincaid, and Oronde Gadsden later, you sit alone in your room, staring at the wall with a blanket over your head, wondering how you got here (speaking for a friend).
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 10 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), the Bell Cow Report, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)
TPRR: 44%
Stat Line: five receptions (seven targets), 84 yards receiving, TD
Fantasy Points: 16.9 (WR11)
Believers have waited impatiently for years, but Jaylen Waddle‘s resurgence season has finally arrived.
Without that pesky Tyreek Hill stealing all the first-read looks, Waddle has surpassed the halfway mark as the WR13 in PPG, well exceeding his ADP of WR33.
In fact, since Tyreek’s departure, he has averaged 80.8 yards/game and reached 82+ yards in five of the last six. This is night and day in comparison to the 46.3 yards/game he was averaging prior, only hitting 50+ yards once in the first month of the season.
The ceiling felt sky high with WR16 and WR7 starts to his career, but injuries have hampered his play the past two seasons, leading to plenty of speculation that he could be on the move at this year’s trade deadline. In the end, Miami’s asking price was too high for any interested teams (including Buffalo), leaving Waddle as the Dolphins’ best pass-catching option for the foreseeable future.
This team has had an identity shift over the past two weeks, and if that trajectory continues, we can expect a large contribution from Waddle. With a cakewalk schedule over the remainder of the season (Note: Week 12 bye), Waddle is a prime player to buy for your playoff run.
📊 Jaylen Waddle among WRs since Tyreek Hill‘s injury in Week 4:
➖ 48 targets (15th)
➖ 32 receptions (16th)
➖ 533 receiving yards (4th)
➖ 3 receiving touchdowns (t-5th)
➖ 25 first downs (5th)
➖ 89.5 receiving grade (5th)
➖ 88.4 overall grade (5th)WR2 targets. WR1… pic.twitter.com/G92VnKQHzp
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) November 10, 2025
Underperformer: Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos)
TPRR: 15%
Stat Line: three receptions (four targets), 24 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 3.8 (WR58)
A hot start has cooled off significantly over the past month, as Courtland Sutton has quietly ceded the bulk of this team’s target share to ascending WR2, Troy Franklin.
Perhaps we can chalk this up to one of those quirky in-division matchups, but the Broncos offense could get nothing going against a struggling Raiders team, giving them another unassuming “W” amidst their seven-game streak. Rightfully so, RB JK Dobbins had some choice words for the team:
Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins: “The defense is winning us the games, and we’re not helping them. We’re not doing them any justice. We’re not. I feel bad the way we play on offense and the way they play on defense because they’re doing so great and then we’re doing so bad. And they’re… pic.twitter.com/W3OZNTktLJ
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) November 7, 2025
While I personally believe Bo Nix is a better fantasy (than real life) QB, I am still expecting more from Courtland Sutton. Franklin has been dominating recent targets, but the underlying metrics (such as first read target share) suggest things should regress back to the mean. Defenses adjust throughout the season, and if they truly believe Franklin is a bigger threat, he will start to see coverage shift his way sooner than later.
Weeks 13-16 show promise, but the Broncos face KC this week and are on a bye in Week 12. It may be a while before we see Sutton’s value spike back up.
As the Broncos continue to look under the hood of their lackluster passing offense, one thing needs an immediate change…
Start featuring Courtland Sutton more.
Troy Franklin has 41 targets in the last 5 weeks. Courtland Sutton has 29 over that stretch…
Go back to basics. pic.twitter.com/DEPOKNMBjV
— Zach Bye (@byesline) November 11, 2025
Bell Cow Report
The Bell Cow is a rare, mythical beast in the world of fantasy football. He is one who dominates his backfield in touches as both a rusher and receiver, displaying an elite skill set and putting the team on his back, à la Greg Jennings.
Overachiever: Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers)
% of Team Carries: 87.5%
% Target Share: 6.5%
% Team Yards: 41%
Stat Line: 14 carries, 70 yards rushing | two receptions (two targets), 21 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 10.1 (RB22)
Week 10 would go down as one of the worst statistical nights of Aaron Rodgers‘ career. The Chargers’ defense had answers for everything, shutting down DK Metcalf, their three-headed TE monster, and easily intercepting Calvin Austin‘s closed-fist attempt at catching a pass.
Calvin Austin drops the pass, and it gets intercepted by the Chargers.
Aaron Rodgers gotta be pissed 😡 pic.twitter.com/wOzXwO9DjJ
— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) November 10, 2025
But that is neither here nor there! Because Pittsburgh’s Jekyll and Hyde act may have allowed us one last buying opportunity for Jaylen Warren.
Warren has been the only bright spot in this underwhelming offense, single-handedly earning 41% of the team’s yardage this week. He is game script proof, seeing weekly bell cow usage, and faces bottom-10 rushing defenses in four of the next five weeks.
He may not carry the elite skill set of the top-tier players, but he is as safe as they come, providing a high-floor, low-ceiling play week in and out.
JAYLEN WARREN WITH A CLEAN HURDLE OH MY
PITvsLAC on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/ItebzIhxKf— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2025
Underperformer: Chuba Hubbard (Carolina Panthers)
% of Team Carries: 13%
% Target Share: 4%
% Team Yards: 8%
Stat Line: three carries, 14 yards rushing | one reception (one target), one yard receiving
Fantasy Points: 2.0 (RB50)
Speaking of Jekyll and Hyde acts, the Carolina Panthers hosted 26-year-old rookie QB Tyler Shough and the Saints this week. And, well…
The biggest (fantasy) storyline for this team has been the plummet from grace for starting RB, Chuba Hubbard. Fresh off a four-year, $33.2 million extension, Hubbard went from locked-and-loaded RB2 to the most expensive backup in the league, in the matter of days. After seeing a minimum of 12 touches in his first six healthy games, Chuba has received only nine combined in the past two weeks.
I do want to give credit to Carolina for handling this situation correctly. While Rico filled in admirably (to say the least) in his absence, they gave Hubbard the right to fight for the starting role upon his return. Unfortunately, it was clear to all that Rico is the more explosive player at this point in time, and Dave Canales rightfully deferred to the “hot hand” approach in recent weeks.
Chuba’s stock is at the lowest it’s been in the last two years, but he remains a high-quality handcuff who we know can return high-end RB2 value, if the “hot hand” were to fall back in his favor.
the camera man panning the camera to chuba hubbard, after every rico run 😂😂 pic.twitter.com/LQ0ACzmsjI
— ¡ (@b8pestaa) November 2, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: Jalen Nailor (Minnesota Vikings)
xFP: 10.1
Fantasy Points: 20.9 (WR2)
For weeks now, I’ve been shouting from the rooftops to “buy Minnesota WRs!”
The combination of underperformance, JJ McCarthy‘s improving health, and an incredible rest of season schedule makes them prime bounce-back candidates for the second half of the season.
So, here I say, you’re welcome.
Kidding, of course. Nobody saw this coming.
While Justin Jefferson (WR44), Jordan Addison (WR47), and TJ Hockenson (TE42) all face planted, Nailor was the only one standing on the Vikings offense. He made some big-time plays when the team needed someone to step up, which will hopefully help him land a higher contract and opportunity elsewhere next season.
Nailor was not on anyone’s radar or roster heading into the week, and I’m personally not spending any FAAB on him this week. Congratulations to him for this standout performance, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Minnesota, and I am not banking on this being replicated anytime soon.
61 yards with some stiff arms for Jalen Nailor!
BALvsMIN on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/9zSE12OqME
— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
Underperformer: Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens)
xFP: 15.7
Fantasy Points: 9.9 (RB23)
On the other side of this “who can wear more purple” matchup, Derrick Henry had another underwhelming performance, marking the fourth time in nine games he has failed to reach 10 points.
While the scoreboard alone may seem discouraging, this is another window opened to go get Derrick Henry for your playoff run.
Sure, he didn’t score a TD this week (note his xFP is almost exactly six points off), but he still had 20 touches (75 yards rushing), and was vultured not once, but twice in this game. Justice Hill‘s literal only touch of the game came on a one-yard TD rush, and Mark Andrews scored on a two-yard reception as well.
If even one of those two goal line touches goes his way, he is the RB10 on the week, and we’re not having this discussion.
Baltimore takes on Cleveland this week. They’ve been a stout defense all year, and this is historically a sloppy, low-scoring game. After that, however, they face the Jets (with no Quinnen Williams or Sauce Gardner), Bengals, Steelers, and Bengals once again. The Steelers defense has stepped up recently, but this is still an elite schedule for an RB to enter the fantasy playoffs.
Plus, I hear it’s starting to snow in Vermont…
Expected vs. Actual Fantasy Points (IN THE RED ZONE ONLY) for RBs
Derrick Henry and Jaylen Warren have strangleholds on the goal line work in their backfields, but are still running cold. Buy them both.@FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/JnTmNcxysR
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 5, 2025