Week 1 Overperformers and Underperformers (Fantasy Football)
Week 1 was totally normal and nothing ridiculous, crazy, or unexpected happened, right? That’s a big ole’ bag of nope. Chaos is always a part of the NFL season’s welcoming committee, and 2025 proved no exception.
To sort through the chaos and prevent managers from tilting, we’re analyzing key overachievers and underperformers using three usage metrics: Targets per Route Run (TPRR), Red Zone Rushing, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP). One week is a small sample, but the goal here is straightforward: to highlight what looks sustainable, flag what appears to be noise, and provide the context you need to be a better fantasy player.
Check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, showing which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overperformer: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks)
TPRR: 56.5%
Result: 9 receptions, 124 receiving yards
Fantasy Points: 17.9 (WR8)
JSN led all receivers with a jaw-dropping 56.5% TPPR, turning just 23 routes into 13 targets and a WR8 finish. Sam Darnold looked his way early and often, and the result was a solid 124 yards. The lack of a TD kept him from exploding even further, but this outing signals a clear role expansion. Even if the efficiency comes back to earth, JSN looks locked in as a set-it-and-forget-it WR1.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a 30-year-old WR's craft in a 23-year-old's body pic.twitter.com/tjVhV3pVJi
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 8, 2025
Underperformers: A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles)
TPRR: A.J. Brown 3% | DeVonta Smith 9%
Result: Brown: 1 reception, 8 yards | Smith: 3 receptions, 16 yards
Receiving Fantasy Points: Brown: 1.3 (WR95) | Smith: 3.1 (WR77)
Philadelphia’s passing game opened 2025 with a dud through the air, totaling just 152 passing yards on 23 attempts. That left Brown and Smith invisible in the box score, combining for only 24 yards. It was particularly jarring given expectations that the Eagles would pass more in 2025 after finishing dead last in attempts a year ago. With Jalen Hurts spreading 10 of his targets to Jahan Dotson and Dallas Goedert, the star duo was left on the outside looking in.
The good news? Volume should rise. Philadelphia won’t hover around 20 attempts per week, and both Brown and Smith are too talented to stay this quiet for long. Stay the course, and bounce-backs should be in store moving forward.
Red Zone Rushing
The number of rushing attempts a player receives inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. This metric highlights how often a player is trusted in high-leverage scoring situations, showing who is most likely to be given opportunities to convert short fields into TDs.
Overperformer: Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
Red Zone Carries: 8
Inside the 10: 6
Inside the 5: 5
Result: 8 carries, 8 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs
Fantasy Points: 41.8 (QB1)
Allen punched in two short rushing TDs in Week 1, both coming from inside the 5. Those plays highlight the trust Buffalo has in him as a finisher when the field shrinks. James “Just Got the Bag” Cook was also busy with four carries and a TD of his own, showing that the Bills can share the love.
Allen’s scoring binge shows the weekly ceiling he provides, but fantasy managers should be mindful: it’s hard to get one-yard TDs if you’re not on the one-yard line. Five of Allen’s eight opportunities were inside the 5. Cook may steal more of the TDs located between yards 10 – 20. Even with some regression baked in, Allen’s ability to cap off drives makes him an incredible fantasy asset.
Underperformer: Austin Ekeler (Washington Commanders)
Red Zone Carries: 2
Inside the 10: 1
Inside the 5: 0
Result: 2 carries, 8 yards
Fantasy Points: 7.2 (RB32)
Ekeler’s role in Washington seems pretty straightforward. He finished with nine touches for 57 total yards, but he saw only two carries in the red zone and none inside the 5. At the same time, Jacory Croskey-Merritt carried the ball twice for 12 yards and a TD, and Jayden Daniels added one carry for nine yards.
That workload split is telling. Ekeler still has value as a pass catcher, and his three receptions for 31 yards show he will contribute in the air. Still, the Commanders appear committed to using Bill (Croskey-Merritt for anyone living underneath a rock) in close, Daniels as a rushing threat, and perhaps even Chris Rodriguez (when active) in short-yardage packages when they need a refrigerator-type ball carrier to plow into the end zone.
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overperformer: Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills)
xFP: 9
Fantasy Points: 12.8 (TE2)
Kincaid made the most of his opportunities, catching all four of his targets for 48 yards and a TD. His 12.8 fantasy points came in well over his xFP. Kincaid had a role, while Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir dominated the target share; however, there is a concern about consistency.
He was on the field for just 51% of the Bills’ snaps compared to 56% for Dawson Knox, and saw only four of the team’s seven TE targets. The TE landscape makes it challenging to find starters, so it makes sense for some teams to play him, but they should temper expectations until there are multiple weeks of consistent production. Remember, limited volume is volatile.
Underperformer: Juwan Johnson (New Orleans Saints)
xFP: 18
Fantasy Points: 11.6 (TE4)
Johnson led TE xRP in Week 1 while having a solid week. He played nearly every snap (99%) and saw eleven targets for 8/76/0 with two RZ opportunities. Those are the weekly, overall TE1-type metrics we want.
He dominated the TE snap count with Jack Stoll (24%) and Moliki Matavao (1% of snaps, so, whatever) barely factoring in, and the inability to hit his ceiling falls on QB play. The silver lining is that opportunity is king, and there’s room to be even better than TE4 if Rattler/the team improves.